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Where You Export Matters: Measuring Uncertainty in Turkey's Export Markets

Author

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  • Jianchun Fang
  • Giray Gozgor
  • Sercan Pekel

Abstract

Using data from the World Uncertainty, World Trade Uncertainty, and World Pandemic Uncertainty indices for 142 countries, this paper introduces three new indicators for measuring uncertainty in Turkey’s export markets from the first quarter of 1996 to the first quarter of 2020. The indicators measure uncertainty in Turkey’s export destinations. After introducing three indicators of uncertainty for export markets, we investigate their effects on economic growth. We find that all uncertainty indicators are negatively related to economic performance. Specifically, an increase in uncertainty in export destinations leads to a slower growth rate of up to two quarters. Pandemic-induced uncertainty negatively affects economic growth only at the higher quantiles. We also discuss potential implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianchun Fang & Giray Gozgor & Sercan Pekel, 2020. "Where You Export Matters: Measuring Uncertainty in Turkey's Export Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 8404, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8404
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Stephen J. Terry, 2020. "COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 26983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Kima, Richard, 2020. "The global effects of Covid-19-induced uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    3. Brainard, William C. & Cooper, Richard N., 1968. "Uncertainty and Diversification in International Trade," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, vol. 8(3), pages 1-29.
    4. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    5. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
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    Cited by:

    1. Linh Tu Ho & Christopher Gan, 2021. "Foreign Direct Investment and World Pandemic Uncertainty Index: Do Health Pandemics Matter?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-15, March.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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