IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/joecas/v31y2025ics1703494925000179.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Aid and growth: Asymmetric effects?

Author

Listed:
  • Doerr, Leo M.

Abstract

This study explores potential asymmetries in the relationship between development aid and economic growth. Our analysis reveals that while previous research identifies small positive growth effects of aid, these results stem from the adverse impact of aid reductions, with no corresponding positive effect from aid increases. This suggests that aid acts more as a substitute for domestic resources than as a catalyst for growth. Combining dynamic generalized method of moments techniques with asymmetric effect analysis, we provide a new methodological framework that addresses both unbalanced effects and endogeneity of aid, offering new insights into the aid-growth nexus.

Suggested Citation

  • Doerr, Leo M., 2025. "Aid and growth: Asymmetric effects?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:31:y:2025:i:c:s1703494925000179
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00417
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1703494925000179
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00417?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
    2. Zhang, Dayong, 2008. "Oil shock and economic growth in Japan: A nonlinear approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2374-2390, September.
    3. RenÈ Garcia, 2002. "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 102-119, January.
    4. Mansour, Walid, 2014. "Information asymmetry and financing constraints in GCC," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 19-29.
    5. Łukasz Marć, 2017. "The Impact of Aid on Total Government Expenditures: New Evidence on Fungibility," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 627-663, August.
    6. Seo, Myung Hwan & Shin, Yongcheol, 2016. "Dynamic panels with threshold effect and endogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 195(2), pages 169-186.
    7. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    8. Mosley, Paul & Hudson, John & Horrell, Sara, 1987. "Aid, the Public Sector and the Market in Less Developed Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(387), pages 616-641, September.
    9. Knut Anton Mork & ystein Olsen & Hans Terje Mysen, 1994. "Macroeconomic Responses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in Seven OECD Countries," The Energy Journal, , vol. 15(4), pages 19-35, October.
    10. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi, 2004. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 131-165, June.
    11. Henrik Hansen & Finn Tarp, 2000. "Aid effectiveness disputed," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 375-398, April.
    12. Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2008. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 22(2), pages 187-231, June.
    13. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    14. Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543, December.
    15. Paul Mosley & Abrar Suleiman, 2007. "Aid, Agriculture and Poverty in Developing Countries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 139-158, February.
    16. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2003. "The Empirics of Growth: An Update," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 113-206.
    17. Michael A. Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil R. Bhavnani & Samuel Bazzi, 2012. "Counting Chickens when they Hatch: Timing and the Effects of Aid on Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(561), pages 590-617, June.
    18. Weise, Charles L, 1999. "The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy: A Nonlinear Vector Autoregression Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(1), pages 85-108, February.
    19. Stewart, Robert & Chowdhury, Murshed, 2021. "Banking sector distress and economic growth resilience: Asymmetric effects," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    20. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    21. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
    22. Thilak Ranaweera, 2004. "Ghost of the financing gap: an overlooked aspect of the aid debate," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 637-652.
    23. Daniel Chris Khomba & Alex Trew, 2022. "Aid and Local Growth in Malawi," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(8), pages 1478-1500, August.
    24. Mesagan, Ekundayo Peter & Alimi, Olorunfemi Yasiru & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "The asymmetric effects of exchange rate on trade balance and output growth," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    25. Elizabeth Asiedu & Boaz Nandwa, 2007. "The Impact of Foreign Aid in Education Growth: How Relevant is the Heterogeneity of Aid Flows and the Heterogeneity of Aid Recipients?," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2007-60, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    26. Mosley, Paul, 1980. "Aid, Savings and Growth Revisited," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 42(2), pages 79-95, May.
    27. Caselli, Francesco & Esquivel, Gerardo & Lefort, Fernando, 1996. "Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 363-389, September.
    28. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Markwardt, Gunther, 2009. "The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 134-151, January.
    29. Boone, Peter, 1996. "Politics and the effectiveness of foreign aid," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 289-329, February.
    30. Knut Anton Mork & Oystein Olsen & Hans Terje Mysen, 1994. "Macroeconomic Responses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in Seven OECD Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 19-36.
    31. Alimov, Behzod, 2022. "The dynamic effects of debt and equity inflows: Evidence from emerging and developing countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    32. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2008. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 643-665, November.
    33. Simone Juhasz Silva & Douglas Nelson, 2012. "Does Aid Cause Trade? Evidence from an Asymmetric Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(5), pages 545-577, May.
    34. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-744, June.
    35. George Mavrotas, 2005. "Aid heterogeneity: looking at aid effectiveness from a different angle," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(8), pages 1019-1036.
    36. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 1994. "Sources of economic growth," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 1-46, June.
    37. C-J. Dalgaard & H. Hansen, 2001. "On Aid, Growth and Good Policies," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 17-41.
    38. Griffin, Keith B & Enos, J L, 1970. "Foreign Assistance: Objectives and Consequences," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(3), pages 313-327, April.
    39. Gulati, Umesh C, 1978. "Effect of Capital Imports on Savings and Growth in Less Developed Countries," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 16(4), pages 563-569, October.
    40. Mosley, Paul, 1985. "The Political Economy of Foreign Aid: A Model of the Market for a Public Good," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(2), pages 373-393, January.
    41. William Easterly & Ross Levine & David Roodman, 2004. "Aid, Policies, and Growth: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 774-780, June.
    42. David Dollar & Craig Burnside, 2000. "Aid, Policies, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 847-868, September.
    43. Elizabeth Asiedu & Boaz Nandwa, 2007. "On the Impact of Foreign Aid in Education on Growth: How Relevant Is the Heterogeneity of Aid Flows and the Heterogeneity of Aid Recipients?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(4), pages 631-649, December.
    44. Olaoye, Olumide O. & Eluwole, Oluwatosin O. & Ayesha, Aziz & Afolabi, Olugbenga O., 2020. "Government spending and economic growth in ECOWAS: An asymmetric analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    45. Paparizos, Panagiotis & Dimitriou, Dimitrios & Kenourgios, Dimitris & Simos, Theodore, 2016. "On high frequency dynamics between information asymmetry and volatility for securities," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 21-34.
    46. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.
    47. Zestos, George & Jiang, Yixiao & Hamed, Alex & Raymond, Samuel, 2023. "Public debt, current account, and economic growth in Germany: Evidence from a nonlinear ARDL model," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    48. Papanek, Gustav F, 1973. "Aid, Foreign Private Investment, Savings, and Growth in Less Developed Countries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(1), pages 120-130, Jan.-Feb..
    49. William Easterly, 2003. "Can Foreign Aid Buy Growth?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 23-48, Summer.
    50. James Peery Cover, 1992. "Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(4), pages 1261-1282.
    51. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, February.
    52. Wahab, Mahmoud, 2011. "Asymmetric output growth effects of government spending: Cross-sectional and panel data evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 574-590, October.
    53. Adil, Masudul Hasan & Roy, Amrita, 2024. "Asymmetric effects of uncertainty on investment: Empirical evidence from India," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    54. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    55. Zehri, Chokri & Madjd-Sadjadi, Zagros & Saleh Iben Ammar, Latifa, 2024. "Asymmetric impacts of U.S. monetary policy on emerging markets: Contagion and macroeconomic determinants," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    56. Weisskopf, Thomas E., 1972. "The impact of foreign capital inflow on domestic savings in underdeveloped countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 25-38, February.
    57. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
    58. Levy, Victor, 1988. "Aid and growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: The recent experience," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1777-1795, November.
    59. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Corrigendum: Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 320-322, August.
    60. Nazrul Islam, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-1170.
    61. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-1286, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Juergen Bitzer & Erkan Goeren, 2018. "Foreign Aid and Subnational Development: A Grid Cell Analysis," Working Papers V-407-18, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2018.
    2. Michael Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil Bhavnani, 2004. "Counting Chickens When They Hatch: The Short-term Effect of Aid on Growth," Working Papers 44, Center for Global Development.
    3. Mark McGillivray & Simon Feeny, 2008. "Aid and Growth in Fragile States," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-03, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Tadesse, Tasew, 2011. "Foreign aid and economic growth in Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 33953, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Sep 2011.
    5. Bazoumana Ouattara & Eric Strobl, 2008. "Aid, Policy and Growth: Does Aid Modality Matter?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 144(2), pages 347-365, July.
    6. Mark McGillivray & Simon Feeny & Niels Hermes & Robert Lensink, 2005. "It Works; It Doesn't; It Can, But that Depends...: 50 Years of Controversy Over the Macroeconomic Impact of Development Aid," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2005-54, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Angeles, Luis & Neanidis, Kyriakos C., 2009. "Aid effectiveness: the role of the local elite," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 120-134, September.
    8. Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu & Lahiri, Sajal & Younas, Javed, 2011. "Should Easier Access to International Credit Replace Foreign Aid?," IZA Discussion Papers 6024, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Evelyn Wamboye & Abel Adekola & Bruno S. Sergi, 2014. "Foreign aid, legal origin, economic growth and Africa’s least developed countries," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 14(4), pages 335-357, October.
    10. Rasmane Ouedraogo & Windemanegda Sandrine Sourouema & Hamidou Sawadogo, 2021. "Aid, growth and institutions in Sub‐Saharan Africa: New insights using a multiple growth regime approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 107-142, January.
    11. Minoiu, Camelia & Reddy, Sanjay G., 2010. "Development aid and economic growth: A positive long-run relation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 27-39, February.
    12. Kamguia, Brice & Tadadjeu, Sosson & Miamo, Clovis & Njangang, Henri, 2022. "Does foreign aid impede economic complexity in developing countries?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 71-88.
    13. Mullings, Robert & Mahabir, Aruneema, 2018. "Growth by Destination: The Role of Trade in Africa’s Recent Growth Episode," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 243-261.
    14. Mark McGillivray & Simon Feeny & Niels Hermes & Robert Lensink, 2006. "Controversies over the impact of development aid: it works; it doesn't; it can, but that depends …," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(7), pages 1031-1050.
    15. León-González, Roberto & Montolio, Daniel, 2015. "Endogeneity and panel data in growth regressions: A Bayesian model averaging approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 23-39.
    16. Innocent .U. Duru & Bartholomew .O.N. Okafor & Millicent Adanne Eze & Gabriel .O. Ebenyi, 2020. "Foreign Aid and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria," Growth, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 7(1), pages 35-50.
    17. Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Aid and Conditionality," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4415-4523, Elsevier.
    18. Strand, Jon, 2009. ""Revenue management"effects related to financial flows generated by climate policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5053, The World Bank.
    19. Maruta, Admasu Asfaw & Banerjee, Rajabrata & Cavoli, Tony, 2020. "Foreign aid, institutional quality and economic growth: Evidence from the developing world," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 444-463.
    20. Mina Baliamoune-Lutz, 2012. "Do Institutions And Social Cohesion Enhance The Effectiveness Of Aid? New Evidence From Africa," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(01), pages 1-19.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:31:y:2025:i:c:s1703494925000179. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/the-journal-of-economic-asymmetries/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.