IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boe/boeewp/1100.html

How do firms’ financial conditions influence the transmission of monetary policy? A non-parametric local projection approach

Author

Listed:
  • Livia Silva Paranhos

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

How do monetary policy shocks affect firm investment? This paper provides new evidence on US non-financial firms and a novel non-parametric framework based on random forests. The key advantage of the methodology is that it does not impose any assumptions on how the effect of shocks varies across firms thereby allowing for general forms of heterogeneity in the transmission of shocks. My estimates suggest that there exists a threshold in the level of firm risk above which monetary policy is much less effective. Additionally, there is no evidence that the effect of policy varies with firm risk for the 75% of firms in the sample with higher risk. The proposed methodology is a generalisation of local projections and nests several common local projection specifications, including linear and nonlinear.

Suggested Citation

  • Livia Silva Paranhos, 2024. "How do firms’ financial conditions influence the transmission of monetary policy? A non-parametric local projection approach," Bank of England working papers 1100, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:1100
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2024/how-do-firms-financial-conditions-influence-the-transmission-of-monetary-policy.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2008. "Idiosyncratic Shocks and the Role of Nonconvexities in Plant and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(2), pages 395-436, March.
    2. MacKinnon, James G. & White, Halbert, 1985. "Some heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators with improved finite sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 305-325, September.
    3. Fortin, Nicole & Lemieux, Thomas & Firpo, Sergio, 2011. "Decomposition Methods in Economics," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 1, pages 1-102, Elsevier.
    4. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.
    5. José Luis Montiel Olea & Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller, 2021. "Local Projection Inference Is Simpler and More Robust Than You Think," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1789-1823, July.
    6. Zetlin-Jones, Ariel & Shourideh, Ali, 2017. "External financing and the role of financial frictions over the business cycle: Measurement and theory," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1-15.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Karin Klieber, 2025. "Opening the Black Box of Local Projections," Papers 2505.12422, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paranhos, Livia, 2025. "How do firms’ financial conditions influence the transmission of monetary policy? A non-parametric local projection approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 249(PC).
    2. Cloyne, James & Jordà , Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2023. "State-Dependent Local Projections: Understanding Impulse Response Heterogeneity," CEPR Discussion Papers 17903, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2024. "Local Projections," NBER Working Papers 32822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. James Cloyne & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Decomposing the Fiscal Multiplier," Working Paper Series 2020-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Elstner, Steffen & Grimme, Christian & Kecht, Valentin & Lehmann, Robert, 2022. "The diffusion of technological progress in ICT," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    6. Francesco Furlanetto & Antoine Lepetit & Ørjan Robstad & Juan Rubio-Ramírez & Pål Ulvedal, 2025. "Estimating Hysteresis Effects," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-70, January.
    7. Kwak, Jun Hee & Han, Bada & Lee, Jae Young, 2025. "The causal effects of equity flows: Evidence from Korea," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    8. Di Nola, Alessandro, 2015. "Capital Misallocation during the Great Recession," MPRA Paper 68289, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Bechchani, Khalil, 2025. "Austerity reexamined: Uncovering the role of the shadow economy," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1291-1317.
    10. Ruhollah Eskandari & Morteza Zamanian, 2023. "Heterogeneous responses to corporate marginal tax rates: Evidence from small and large firms," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 1018-1047, November.
    11. Alfred A. Haug & Tomasz Łyziak & Anna Sznajderska, 2022. "The Role of the Monetary Policy Stance for the Goverment Spending Multiplier in Poland ​," KAE Working Papers 2022-080, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    12. Martin Bruns & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2026. "Review of Proxy Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2155, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Martín Almuzara & Víctor Sancibrián, 2024. "Micro responses to macro shocks," Working Papers wp2024_2412, CEMFI.
    14. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Karin Klieber, 2025. "Opening the Black Box of Local Projections," Papers 2505.12422, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.
    15. Bonsoo Koo & Seojeong Lee & Myung Hwan Seo & Masaya Takano, 2022. "What Impulse Response Do Instrumental Variables Identify?," Papers 2208.11828, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
    16. Silvana Tiedemann & Jorge Sanchez Canales & Felix Schur & Raffaele Sgarlato & Lion Hirth & Oliver Ruhnau & Jonas Peters, 2024. "Identifying Elasticities in Autocorrelated Time Series Using Causal Graphs," Papers 2409.15530, arXiv.org.
    17. Loipersberger, Florian & Matschke, Johannes, 2022. "Financial cycles and domestic policy choices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    18. Jörg Breitung & Ralf Brüggemann, 2023. "Projection Estimators for Structural Impulse Responses," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(6), pages 1320-1340, December.
    19. Philipp Roderweis & Jamel Saadaoui & Francisco Serranito, 2023. "The Unintended Consequences of ECB’s Asset Purchases. How Excess Reserves Shape Bank Lending," Working Papers of BETA 2023-34, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    20. Mavrogiannis, Christos & Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2025. "The effects of structural reforms on gross capital inflows in OECD countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:1100. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Research (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boegvuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.