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How do firms’ financial conditions influence the transmission of monetary policy? A non-parametric local projection approach

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  • Paranhos, Livia

Abstract

How do monetary policy shocks affect firm investment? This paper provides new evidence on US non-financial firms and a novel non-parametric framework based on random forests. The key advantage of the methodology is that it does not impose any assumptions on how the effect of shocks varies across firms thereby allowing for general forms of heterogeneity in the transmission of shocks. My estimates suggest that there exists a threshold in the level of firm risk above which monetary policy is much less effective. Additionally, there is no evidence that the effect of policy varies with firm risk for the 75% of firms in the sample with higher risk. The proposed methodology is a generalization of local projections and nests several common local projection specifications, including linear and nonlinear.

Suggested Citation

  • Paranhos, Livia, 2025. "How do firms’ financial conditions influence the transmission of monetary policy? A non-parametric local projection approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 249(PC).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:249:y:2025:i:pc:s0304407624002318
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105886
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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