IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/16682.html

The Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines on Economic Activity

Author

Listed:
  • Ostry, Jonathan D.
  • Deb, Pragyan
  • Furceri, Davide
  • Jiménez, Daniel
  • Kothari, Siddharth
  • Tawk, Nour

Abstract

This paper empirically examines the economic effects of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts using a cross-country daily database of vaccinations and high frequency indicators of economic activity—nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions, carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, and Google mobility indices—for a sample of 46 countries over the period December 16, 2020 to June 20, 2021. Using surprises in vaccines administered, we find that an unexpected increase in vaccination per capita is associated with a significant increase in economic activity. We also find evidence for non-linear effects of vaccines, with the marginal economic benefits being larger when vaccination rates are higher. Country-specific conditions play an important role, with lower economic gains if strict containment measures are in place or if the country is experiencing a severe outbreak. Finally, the results provide evidence of spillovers across borders, highlighting the importance of equitable access to vaccines across nations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ostry, Jonathan D. & Deb, Pragyan & Furceri, Davide & Jiménez, Daniel & Kothari, Siddharth & Tawk, Nour, 2021. "The Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines on Economic Activity," CEPR Discussion Papers 16682, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16682
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP16682
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Erkmen G Aslim & Wei Fu & Chia-Lun Liu & Erdal Tekin, 2024. "Vaccination Policy, Delayed Care and Health Expenditures," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(664), pages 3096-3136.
    3. Zheng, Yi & Ren, He, 2024. "COVID-19 vaccination and housing payments," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Woloszko, Nicolas, 2024. "Nowcasting with panels and alternative data: The OECD weekly tracker," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 1302-1335.
    5. Charpe, Matthieu, 2022. "The Economic Impact of Covid-19 and Associated Lockdown Measures in China," MPRA Paper 114861, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Miquel Oliu-Barton & Bary S. R. Pradelski & Nicolas Woloszko & Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud & Philippe Aghion & Patrick Artus & Arnaud Fontanet & Philippe Martin & Guntram B. Wolff, 2022. "The effect of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, health outcomes, and the economy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Stankov, Petar, 2025. "Politically optimal lockdowns with vaccine hesitancy: Theory and evidence from Switzerland," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 358-370.
    8. Ege Aksu & Prabal K. De & Laxman Timilsina, 2024. "New evidence on the health and employment effects of non-pharmaceutical COVID-19 interventions on workers in the United States," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(6), pages 2771-2819, December.
    9. Errico, Lucia & Rondinella, Sandro & Silipo, Damiano B. & Sonmez, Sinem, 2025. "Assessing the efficacy of mitigation strategies on the COVID-19 outbreak," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    10. Maria D. Tito & Ashley Edwards, 2024. "A Shot at the Recovery: Quantifying the Impact of the COVID-19 Vaccine Lotteries on Measures of Activity," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(4), pages 379-393, November.
    11. Gagnon, Joseph E. & Kamin, Steven B. & Kearns, John, 2023. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global GDP growth," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    12. Horvath, Akos & Kay, Benjamin & Wix, Carlo, 2023. "The COVID-19 shock and consumer credit: Evidence from credit card data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16682. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.