IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/iaecre/v30y2024i4d10.1007_s11294-024-09924-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Shot at the Recovery: Quantifying the Impact of the COVID-19 Vaccine Lotteries on Measures of Activity

Author

Listed:
  • Maria D. Tito

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • Ashley Edwards

    (College Board)

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of vaccine lotteries in the United States on spending, mobility, and employment, three dimensions of activity representing novel outcomes relative to the existing literature. This analysis combines hand-collected data on the introduction of vaccine lotteries across states over the second and third quarters of 2021 with daily state-level data from Fiserv (spending), Apple and Google (mobility), and Homebase (employment). In a dynamic event design setting, lotteries significantly boosted retail spending but did not meaningfully affect other measures of activity. As the introduction of the lotteries was largely unexpected and there were no significant pre-trends, we argue that these effects can be interpreted causally, differently from the contributions strictly relating vaccinations and economic outcomes. Finally, these effects were translated into implications for economic growth. Under the assumption that there were no meaningful substitution patterns, the findings imply that the introduction of lotteries added 0.4 percentage points to gross domestic product growth in 2021.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria D. Tito & Ashley Edwards, 2024. "A Shot at the Recovery: Quantifying the Impact of the COVID-19 Vaccine Lotteries on Measures of Activity," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(4), pages 379-393, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:30:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s11294-024-09924-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11294-024-09924-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11294-024-09924-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11294-024-09924-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Hale & Noam Angrist & Rafael Goldszmidt & Beatriz Kira & Anna Petherick & Toby Phillips & Samuel Webster & Emily Cameron-Blake & Laura Hallas & Saptarshi Majumdar & Helen Tatlow, 2021. "A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker)," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(4), pages 529-538, April.
    2. Tom Chang & Mireille Jacobson & Manisha Shah & Rajiv Pramanik & Samir B. Shah, 2021. "Financial Incentives and Other Nudges Do Not Increase COVID-19 Vaccinations among the Vaccine Hesitant," NBER Working Papers 29403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Pragyan Deb & Davide Furceri & Daniel Jimenez & Siddharth Kothari & Jonathan D. Ostry & Nour Tawk, 2022. "The effects of COVID-19 vaccines on economic activity," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-25, December.
    4. Niels-Jakob H. Hansen & Rui C. Mano, 2023. "COVID-19 Vaccines: A Shot in the Arm for the Economy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 148-169, March.
    5. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    6. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    7. Margaret E. Brehm & Paul A. Brehm & Martin Saavedra, 2022. "The Ohio Vaccine Lottery and Starting Vaccination Rates," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(3), pages 387-411.
    8. Lang, David & Esbenshade, Lief & Willer, Robb, 2023. "Did Ohio’s Vaccine Lottery Increase Vaccination Rates? A Pre-Registered, Synthetic Control Study," Journal of Experimental Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 242-260, July.
    9. Robertson, Christopher & Schaefer, K. Aleks & Scheitrum, Daniel, 2021. "Are vaccine lotteries worth the money?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    10. Hengchen Dai & Silvia Saccardo & Maria A. Han & Lily Roh & Naveen Raja & Sitaram Vangala & Hardikkumar Modi & Shital Pandya & Michael Sloyan & Daniel M. Croymans, 2021. "Behavioural nudges increase COVID-19 vaccinations," Nature, Nature, vol. 597(7876), pages 404-409, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexander Karaivanov & Dongwoo Kim & Shih En Lu & Hitoshi Shigeoka, 2022. "COVID-19 vaccination mandates and vaccine uptake," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(12), pages 1615-1624, December.
    2. Miquel Oliu-Barton & Bary S. R. Pradelski & Nicolas Woloszko & Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud & Philippe Aghion & Patrick Artus & Arnaud Fontanet & Philippe Martin & Guntram B. Wolff, 2022. "The effect of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, health outcomes, and the economy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Makridis, Christos A., 2022. "When houses of worship go empty: The effects of state restrictions on well-being among religious adherents," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    4. Ege Aksu & Prabal K. De & Laxman Timilsina, 2024. "New evidence on the health and employment effects of non-pharmaceutical COVID-19 interventions on workers in the United States," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(6), pages 2771-2819, December.
    5. Ardiyono, Sulistiyo K., 2022. "Covid-19 pandemic, firms’ responses, and unemployment in the ASEAN-5," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 337-372.
    6. Serrano-Alarcón, Manuel & Mckee, Martin & Palumbo, Leonardo & Salvi, Cristiana & Johansen, Anne & Stuckler, David, 2024. "How to increase COVID-19 vaccination among a population with persistently suboptimal vaccine uptake? Evidence from the North Macedonia mobile vaccination and public health advice caravan," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Bas Scheer & Wiljan van den Berge & Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2022. "Alternative Work Arrangements and Worker Outcomes: Evidence from Payrolling," CPB Discussion Paper 435, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    8. Ichev, Riste & Valentinčič, Aljoša, 2025. "The effect of impact investing on performance of private firms," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA).
    9. Mac Clay, Pablo & Börner, Jan & Sellare, Jorge, 2023. "Institutional and macroeconomic stability mediate the effect of auctions on renewable energy capacity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    10. Catalina Amuedo‐Dorantes & Francisca M. Antman, 2022. "De facto immigration enforcement, ICE raid awareness, and worker engagement," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(1), pages 373-391, January.
    11. Ricardo Dahis & Christiane Szerman, 2023. "Decentralizing Development: Evidence from Government Splits," Monash Economics Working Papers 2023-18, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    12. Anderson, D. Mark & Liang, Yang & Sabia, Joseph J., 2022. "Mandatory Seatbelt Laws and Traffic Fatalities: A Reassessment," IZA Discussion Papers 15843, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Arne Henningsen & Guy Low & David Wuepper & Tobias Dalhaus & Hugo Storm & Dagim Belay & Stefan Hirsch, 2024. "Estimating Causal Effects with Observational Data: Guidelines for Agricultural and Applied Economists," IFRO Working Paper 2024/03, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    14. Stefan Bauernschuster & Michael Grimm & Cathy M. Hajo, 2023. "The Impact of Margaret Sanger’s Birth Control Clinics on Early 20th Century U.S. Fertility and Mortality," CESifo Working Paper Series 10421, CESifo.
    15. Fabio Bothner & Annette Elisabeth Töller & Paul Philipp Schnase, 2022. "Do Lawsuits by ENGOs Improve Environmental Quality? Results from the Field of Air Pollution Policy in Germany," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-18, May.
    16. DeMalach, Elad & Schlosser, Analia, 2024. "Short- and Long-Term Effects of Universal Preschool: Evidence from the Arab Population in Israel," CEPR Discussion Papers 18781, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Federica Alfani & Vasco Molini & Giacomo Pallante & Alessandro PalmaGran, 2024. "Job displacement and reallocation failure. Evidence from climate shocks in Morocco," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 51(1), pages 1-31.
    18. Rik Chakraborti & Gavin Roberts, 2023. "How price-gouging regulation undermined COVID-19 mitigation: county-level evidence of unintended consequences," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 196(1), pages 51-83, July.
    19. Guy Lacroix & Pierre-Carl Michaud, 2024. "Tax Incentives and Older Workers: Evidence from Canada," Cahiers de recherche / Working Papers 02, Chaire de recherche Jacques-Parizeau en politiques économiques / Jacques-Parizeau Research Chair in Economic Policy.
    20. Luo, Lianfa & Cheng, Zhiming & Ye, Qingqing & Cheng, Yanjun & Smyth, Russell & Yang, Zhiqing & Zhang, Le, 2024. "Nonmonetary awards and innovation: Evidence from winning China's Top Brand Contest," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Vaccine Lotteries; Economic Activity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • H42 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Publicly Provided Private Goods
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:30:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s11294-024-09924-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.