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A Fiscal Impact Measure for Austria

Author

Listed:
  • Mathias Moser

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

  • Lukas Reiss

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Analysis Division)

Abstract

This study introduces a Fiscal Impact Measure (FIM) based on a novel framework for assessing how discretionary fiscal policies influence GDP growth in Austria. By decomposing revenue and expenditure components, we quantify fiscal impulses relative to rule-based neutral benchmarks, integrating category-specific multipliers from the Austrian Quarterly Model (AQM). Our analysis reveals that fiscal policy largely followed a countercyclical pattern from 1996 to 2020, with consolidation phases post-2009 and expansive responses during the 2008 financial crisis. In contrast, the COVID-19 pandemic led to massive health-related expenditure and energy subsidies that created procyclical stimuli during 2021 and 2022 and a restrictive stance during the 2024 downturn. Our results indicate that household taxes/transfers and public consumption drove a large part of growth impacts historically. The FIM’s granular approach highlights how fiscal rules and crisis responses contribute to macroeconomic outcomes. It thus serves as a tool for policymakers to forecast growth effects amidst evolving EU fiscal governance.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathias Moser & Lukas Reiss, 2025. "A Fiscal Impact Measure for Austria," OeNB Bulletin, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2/25-2, pages 1-16.
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbbu:y:2025:i:q2/25-2:b:1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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