IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2509.21397.html

Impact of government spending shocks in the Visegrad countries, 1999Q1-2019Q4

Author

Listed:
  • Zoltan Bartha
  • Marco M. Matarrese

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of a fiscal policy spending shock on the economy of the Visegrad 4 countries. The impact is estimated with an SVAR model, and the calculations are based on 84 quarterly observations (1999Q1-2019Q4). The results suggest that fiscal expansion has a larger than usual impact in the V4 countries (except for Slovakia): the estimated long-term (5-year) cumulative spending multipliers are 0.81 for Czechia, 1.14 for Hungary, and 1.76 for Poland (the Slovakian multiplier has a value of -0.18, but it is not significant). The discussion section also connects higher spending multipliers with a higher share of VAT revenues, a higher debt ratio, higher foreign debt, and lower openness.

Suggested Citation

  • Zoltan Bartha & Marco M. Matarrese, 2025. "Impact of government spending shocks in the Visegrad countries, 1999Q1-2019Q4," Papers 2509.21397, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2509.21397
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.21397
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.
    2. Caldara, Dario & Kamps, Christophe, 2008. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks? A VAR-based comparative analysis," Working Paper Series 877, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bredemeier, Christian & Juessen, Falko & Schabert, Andreas, 2015. "Fiscal Policy, Interest Rate Spreads, and the Zero Lower Bound," IZA Discussion Papers 8993, IZA Network @ LISER.
    2. Sergio Destefanis & Valter Di Giacinto, 2022. "EU structural funds and GDP per capita: Spatial VAR evidence for the European regions," Discussion Paper series in Regional Science & Economic Geography 2022-09, Gran Sasso Science Institute, Social Sciences, revised Oct 2024.
    3. Konstantinou, Panagiotis Th. & Partheniou, Andromachi, 2021. "The Effects of Government Spending Over the Business Cycle: A Disaggregated Analysis for OECD and Non-OECD Countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 809-822.
    4. Rüth, Sebastian K. & Simon, Camilla, 2022. "How do income and the debt position of households propagate fiscal stimulus into consumption?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    5. Ackon, Kwabena Meneabe, 2020. "Fiscal Policy Innovations In Advanced Economies," MPRA Paper 100737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Rüth, Sebastian K. & Simon, Camilla, 2020. "How Do Income and the Debt Position of Households Propagate Public into Private Spending?," Working Papers 0676, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    7. Cantore, Cristiano & Freund, Lukas B., 2021. "Workers, capitalists, and the government: fiscal policy and income (re)distribution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 58-74.
    8. Sergio Destefanis & Valter Di Giacinto, 2025. "The Heterogeneous Effects of EU Structural Funds: A Spatial VAR Approach," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 497-517, March.
    9. Karamysheva, Madina & Skrobotov, Anton, 2022. "Do we reject restrictions identifying fiscal shocks? identification based on non-Gaussian innovations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    10. Gabriel Temesgen Woldu, 2023. "The asymmetric effect of fiscal policy on private consumption and private investment over a business cycle: Evidence from Sub‐Saharan African countries," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(6), pages 1147-1162, August.
    11. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Pesso, Tom, 2024. "Fiscal policy and inflation: accounting for non-linearities in government debt," Working Paper Series 2996, European Central Bank.
    12. Masud Alam, 2024. "Output, employment, and price effects of U.S. narrative tax changes: a factor-augmented vector autoregression approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1421-1471, October.
    13. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Luca Fanelli & Marco Mazzali, 2025. "The Size and Uncertainty of Government Spending Multipliers in Italian Regions," Working Papers wp1216, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    14. Deleidi, Matteo & Iafrate, Francesca & Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2020. "Public investment fiscal multipliers: An empirical assessment for European countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 354-365.
    15. Hjelm, Göran & Stockhammar, Pär, 2016. "Short Run Effects of Fiscal Policy on GDP and Employment: Swedish Evidence," Working Papers 147, National Institute of Economic Research.
    16. Francesco Simone Lucidi, 2023. "The misalignment of fiscal multipliers in Italian regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(10), pages 2073-2086, October.
    17. repec:ecb:ecbdps:202426 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Nkrumah, Kwabena Meneabe, 2018. "Essays In Fiscal Policy And State Dependence Fiscal Policy Innovations Using A New Econometric Approach," MPRA Paper 98689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Panagiotis Th. Konstantinou & Andromachi Partheniou & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2025. "A Functional Classification Analysis of Government Spending Multipliers," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 1157-1192, September.
    20. Ziegenbein, Alexander, 2024. "When are tax multipliers large?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    21. Jørgensen, Peter L. & Ravn, Søren H., 2022. "The inflation response to government spending shocks: A fiscal price puzzle?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2509.21397. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.