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Output response to government spending: evidence from new international military spending data

Author

Listed:
  • Sheremirov, Viacheslav

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)

  • Spirovska, Sandra

    ()

Abstract

Fiscal policy, among other measures, was widely used to stimulate employment and to put the U.S. economy back on track in response to the Great Recession and in a number of previous recessions in both the United States and in Europe. It is striking how much disagreement there was — and still is — among policymakers and academics alike about the inner workings of fiscal policy and its effect on output and employment. Estimating fiscal multipliers is methodologically challenging, as government spending often reacts to current or anticipated changes in economic conditions, and requires bold identifying assumptions. Barro (1981), Hall (1986, 2009), Rotemberg and Woodford (1992), and Barro and Redlick (2011), among others, rely on military spending as an exogenous component of government expenditure. However, in the United States after World War II (and even more so after the Korean War), there has not been enough variation in military spending to estimate the multiplier with a high degree of precision. This paper uses data from a large panel of countries with significant time variation in military spending to shed light on the magnitude of the government spending multiplier.

Suggested Citation

  • Sheremirov, Viacheslav & Spirovska, Sandra, 2015. "Output response to government spending: evidence from new international military spending data," Working Papers 15-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:15-9
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    File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/wp/wp2015/wp1509.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:nbr:nberch:13342 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Laura Feiveson & Zachary Liscow & William Gui Woolston, 2012. "Does State Fiscal Relief during Recessions Increase Employment? Evidence from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 118-145, August.
    3. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
    4. repec:nbr:nberch:13344 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Robert J. Barro & Charles J. Redlick, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects From Government Purchases and Taxes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 51-102.
    6. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    7. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2017. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?," NBER Working Papers 23134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. JonasD.M. Fisher & Ryan Peters, 2010. "Using Stock Returns to Identify Government Spending Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 414-436, May.
    9. Jeffrey Clemens & Stephen Miran, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Multipliers on Subnational Government Spending," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 46-68, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Miyamoto, Wataru & Nguyen, Thuy Lan & Sheremirov, Viacheslav, 2016. "The effects of government spending on real exchange rates: evidence from military spending panel data," Working Papers 16-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal multiplier; military spending;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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