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The impact of endogenous product and labour market reforms on unemployment: New evidence based on local projections

Author

Listed:
  • Rasmus Wiese
  • Jakob de Haan
  • João Tovar Jalles

Abstract

We examine the impact of structural reforms on unemployment in 25 OECD countries between 1970- 2020. Our local projection (LP) results suggest that labour market reforms reduce unemployment, but only after four years (for youth unemployment it takes longer for the effect to set in), while product market reforms have no statistically significant effect on unemployment. However, if we control for the endogeneity of reforms, the effect of labour market reform becomes statistically significant within a year, while product market reforms temporarily increase unemployment. We also find that labour market reforms hardly have an impact on unemployment in the euro area and that labour market reforms do not significantly affect unemployment when the economy is below trend. The effects of structural reforms on unemployment are stronger under high collective bargaining.

Suggested Citation

  • Rasmus Wiese & Jakob de Haan & João Tovar Jalles, 2023. "The impact of endogenous product and labour market reforms on unemployment: New evidence based on local projections," Working Papers REM 2023/0296, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:remwps:wp02962023
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment; structural reforms; local projections; endogeneity of reforms; nonlinearities; collective bargaining; AIPW;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings
    • L43 - Industrial Organization - - Antitrust Issues and Policies - - - Legal Monopolies and Regulation or Deregulation
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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