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Robust political economy correlates of major product and labor market reforms in advanced economies: Evidence from BAMLE for logit models

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  • Romain Duval
  • Davide Furceri
  • Jakob Miethe

Abstract

The political economy literature has put forward a multitude of hypotheses regarding the drivers of structural reforms, but few, if any, empirically robust findings have emerged thus far. To make progress, we draw a parallel with model uncertainty in the growth literature and provide a new version of the Bayesian averaging of maximum likelihood estimates (BAMLE) technique tailored to binary logit models. Relying on a new database of major past labor and product market reforms in advanced countries, we test a large set of variables for robust correlation with reform in each area. We find widespread support for the crisis‐induces‐reform hypothesis, as high unemployment and economic crises are robustly correlated to structural reforms. We also find evidence of reform convergence—that is, countries with tighter regulation are more prone to liberalize. Reforms are more likely when other countries also undertake them and when there is formal pressure to implement them. Other robust correlates are more specific to certain areas—for example, international pressure and political factors are most relevant for product market and job protection reforms, respectively.

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  • Romain Duval & Davide Furceri & Jakob Miethe, 2021. "Robust political economy correlates of major product and labor market reforms in advanced economies: Evidence from BAMLE for logit models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 98-124, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:36:y:2021:i:1:p:98-124
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.2791
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    5. Sanjeev Gupta & João Tovar Jalles, 2020. "On the Political Economy Determinants of Tax Reforms: Evidence from Developing Countries," Working Papers REM 2020/0151, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    6. Jakob de Haan & Rasmus Wiese, 2022. "The impact of product and labour market reform on growth: Evidence for OECD countries based on local projections," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 746-770, June.
    7. Giuseppe De Luca & Jan R. Magnus & Franco Peracchi, 2022. "Asymptotic properties of the weighted-average least squares (WALS) estimator," EIEF Working Papers Series 2203, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Mar 2022.
    8. Giuseppe Luca & Jan R. Magnus & Franco Peracchi, 2023. "Weighted-Average Least Squares (WALS): Confidence and Prediction Intervals," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(4), pages 1637-1664, April.
    9. Markus Brueckner & Gabriele Ciminelli & Norman Loayza, 2024. "External shocks and labor market reforms in autocracies and democracies: evidence from oil price windfalls," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2024-696, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    10. Campos, Nauro F. & De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2023. "Structural reforms and economic performance: the experience of advanced economies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120870, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Crescioli, Tommaso, 2024. "Reinforcing each other: How the combination of European and domestic reforms increased competition in liberalized industries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    12. Davide Furceri & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, 2021. "Initial Output Losses from the Covid-19 Pandemic: Robust Determinants," IMF Working Papers 2021/018, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Rasmus Wiese & Joåo Tovar Jalles & Jakob de Haan & João Tovar Jalles, 2024. "Labour Market Counter-Reforms in OECD Countries: Conditional Impact on Output and Employment Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 11199, CESifo.
    14. Peruzzi, Michele & Terzi, Alessio, 2021. "Accelerating Economic Growth: The Science beneath the Art," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
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    16. Salih BARIŞIK & Kubilay ERGEN, 2023. "Heterogenous Effects of the Determinants of Pro-market Reforms: Panel Quantile Estimation for OECD Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 36-51, June.
    17. Povilas Lastauskas & Julius Stak.enas, 2024. "Labor Market Policies in High- and Low-Interest Rate Environments: Evidence from the Euro Area," Papers 2410.12024, arXiv.org.

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