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Uncertainty, Informational Spillovers and Policy Reform: A Gravity Model Approach

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  • Jan Fidrmuc

    ()

  • Elira Karaja

    ()

Abstract

Reforms often occur in waves, seemingly cascading from country to country. We argue that such reform waves can be driven by informational spillovers: uncertainty about the outcome of reform is reduced by learning from the experience of similar countries. We motivate this hypothesis with a simple theoretical model of informational spillovers and learning, and then test it empirically using an approach inspired by the gravity model. We find evidence of informational spillovers both with respect to both political and economic liberalization. While the previous literature has focused only on economic reform, we find that the spillovers are particularly important for political changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Fidrmuc & Elira Karaja, 2013. "Uncertainty, Informational Spillovers and Policy Reform: A Gravity Model Approach," CEDI Discussion Paper Series 13-04, Centre for Economic Development and Institutions(CEDI), Brunel University.
  • Handle: RePEc:edb:cedidp:13-04
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    1. repec:spr:qualqt:v:52:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11135-017-0501-z is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Hefeker, Carsten & Neugart, Michael, 2018. "Non-cooperative and cooperative policy reforms under uncertainty and spillovers," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 94-102.
    3. repec:tek:journl:v:5:y:2016:i:1:p:25-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vitor & Jalles, João Tovar & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "What determines the likelihood of structural reforms?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 129-145.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • P27 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects

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