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Reform, Uncertainty and Spillovers - A Gravity Model Approach

  • Jan Fidrmuc
  • Elira Karaja
  • Ariane Tichit

Reforms often occur in waves, seemingly cascading from country to country. We argue that such reform waves may be driven by informational spillovers: uncertainty about the outcome of reform is reduced by learning from the experience of similar countries. We motivate this hypothesis with a simple theoretical model and then test it empirically. Our results confirm the presence of informational spillovers with respect to political liberalization but offer little support for informational spillovers with respect to economic reforms.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3745.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3745
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  1. Alberto Alesina & Allan Drazen, 1989. "Why are Stabilizations Delayed?," NBER Working Papers 3053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ratna Sahay & Gaston Gelos, 2000. "Financial Market Spillovers in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 00/71, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Oliveira Martins, Joaquim & De Macedo, Jorge Braga, 2008. "Growth, Reform Indicators and Policy Complementarities," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/7960, Paris Dauphine University.
  4. Martin Gassebner & Noel Gaston & Michael Lamla, 2008. "The Inverse Domino Effect: Are Economic Reforms Contagious?," KOF Working papers 08-187, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  5. Campos, Nauro F & Horváth, Roman, 2006. "Reform Redux: Measurement, Determinants and Reversals," CEPR Discussion Papers 5673, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Baliamoune-Lutz, Mina, 2009. "Entrepreneurship and Reforms in Developing Countries," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
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