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Crises, What Crises? New Evidence on the Relative Roles of Political and Economic Crises in Begetting Reforms

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  • Nauro Campos
  • Cheng Hsiao
  • Jeffrey Nugent

Abstract

Crises beget reforms is a powerful hypothesis. But which type of crises - economic or political - are the main drivers of structural reforms? To answer this question, we construct measures of labour market and trade liberalisation and the two types of crises for a panel of about 100 developed and developing countries between 1960 and 2000. We find that political crises are more important determinants of structural reforms than economic crises. This finding is robust to the inclusion of interdependencies between crises, feedbacks between reforms, different estimators and various alternative measures of crises.

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  • Nauro Campos & Cheng Hsiao & Jeffrey Nugent, 2010. "Crises, What Crises? New Evidence on the Relative Roles of Political and Economic Crises in Begetting Reforms," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(10), pages 1670-1691.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:46:y:2010:i:10:p:1670-1691
    DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2010.492865
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    3. Delphine Irac & Jimmy Lopez, 2015. "Euro area structural convergence? A multi-criterion cluster analysis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 143, pages 1-22.
    4. Andersson, Fredrik NG, 2016. "A Blessing in Disguise? Banking Crises and Institutional Change," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 135-147.
    5. Falvey, Rod & Foster, Neil & Greenaway, David, 2012. "Trade Liberalization, Economic Crises, and Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(11), pages 2177-2193.
    6. Prato, Carlo & Wolton, Stephane, 2018. "Rational ignorance, populism, and reform," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 119-135.
    7. Mounir Mahmalat & Declan Curran, 2018. "Do Crises Induce Reform? A Critical Review Of Conception, Methodology And Empirical Evidence Of The €˜Crisis Hypothesis’," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 613-648, July.
    8. Campos, Nauro F. & Nugent, Jeffrey B., 2012. "The Dynamics of the Regulation of Labor in Developing and Developed Countries since 1960," IZA Discussion Papers 6881, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Berggren, Niclas & Daunfeldt, Sven-Olov & Hellström, Jörgen, 2016. "Does social trust speed up reforms? The case of central-bank independence," Journal of Institutional Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 395-415, June.
    10. Christian Bellak & Markus Leibrecht, 2019. "The Association of Economic Crises and Investor-State Arbitration Cases," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp284, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    11. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vitor & Jalles, João Tovar & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "What determines the likelihood of structural reforms?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 129-145.
    12. Zara Liaqat & Jeffrey Nugent, 2015. "Under-provision of private training by MENA firms: what to Do about It?," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-29, December.
    13. Romain Duval & Davide Furceri & Jakob Miethe, 2021. "Robust political economy correlates of major product and labor market reforms in advanced economies: Evidence from BAMLE for logit models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 98-124, January.
    14. Ana Carolina Garriga, 2017. "Regulatory lags, liberalization, and vulnerability to banking crises," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), pages 143-165, June.
    15. Romp, Ward & Beetsma, Roel, 2023. "OECD pension reform: The role of demographic trends and the business cycle," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    16. Nauro F. Campos & Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2017. "Structural Reforms, Growth and Inequality: An Overview of Theory, Measurement and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 6812, CESifo.
    17. Gunes Gokmen & Tommaso Nannicini & Massimiliano Gaetano Onorato & Chris Papageorgiou, 2021. "Policies in Hard Times: Assessing the Impact of Financial Crises on Structural Reforms," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(638), pages 2529-2552.
    18. Hannes Andréasson & Niklas Elert & Nils Karlson, 2013. "Does Social Cohesion Really Promote Reforms? WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 33," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46919, January.
    19. Andréasson, Hannes & Elert, Niklas & Karlson, Nils, 2013. "Does Social Cohesion Really Promote Reforms?," Ratio Working Papers 211, The Ratio Institute.
    20. Campos, Nauro F. & De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2023. "Structural reforms and economic performance: the experience of advanced economies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120870, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    21. Prato, Carlo & Wolton, Stephane, 2013. "Rational Ignorance, Elections, and Reform," MPRA Paper 68638, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Dec 2015.
    22. Beetsma, Roel & Romp, Ward & van Maurik, Ron, 2017. "What Drives Pension Reform Measures in the OECD? Evidence based on a New Comprehensive Dataset and Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 12313, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Peter Huber & Thomas Leoni & Hans Pitlik, 2013. "Reforming Welfare States. WWWforEurope Deliverable No. 1," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47022, January.

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