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Trade Liberalisation, Economic Crises and Growth

Many economic reforms are undertaken at a time of economic crisis. But is this a good time to undertake trade reform? In this paper we investigate whether an economic crisis at the time of trade liberalisation affects a country’s subsequent growth performance. We employ threshold regression techniques on five crisis indicators commonly used in the literature, to identify the relevant “crisis values” and to estimate the differential post-liberalisation growth effects in the crisis and non-crisis regimes. We find that the post-liberalisation growth depends on the characteristics of the crisis. Broadly speaking, an internal crisis implies lower growth and an external crisis higher growth relative to the non-crisis regime. These effects appear to be present in both the short and longer runs.

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Paper provided by University of Nottingham, GEP in its series Discussion Papers with number 08/14.

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Handle: RePEc:not:notgep:08/14
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  19. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Trebbi, 2006. "Who adjusts and when? On the political economy of reforms," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2108, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  20. Greenaway, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Sapsford, David, 1997. "Modeling Growth (and Liberalization) Using Smooth Transitions Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(4), pages 798-814, October.
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  28. Bruce E. Hansen, 1997. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing and inference," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 365, Boston College Department of Economics.
  29. Eduardo Lora, 2000. "What Makes Reforms Likely? Timing and Sequencing of Structural Reforms in Latin America," Research Department Publications 4217, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
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  33. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Trebbi, 2006. "Who Adjusts and When?The Political Economy of Reforms," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(si), pages 1.
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