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Food Price Dynamics under Global Climate Cycles

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Abstract

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climatic event with important con- sequences for agricultural production. Several studies have investigated its impact on yields considering different crops and varying spatial scales. However, less attention has been paid to its effects on food prices. The present paper tries to fill this gap through a global analysis of the effect of ENSO shocks, divided into its main events, namely El Niño and La Niña, on the retail prices of several food commodities and crops. To achieve this, a large panel dataset of monthly retail market prices combined with climatic indexes envisaged to capture ENSO shocks has been analysed by adopting the local projection methodology. Impulse response functions spanning till one year after a shock are adopted to interpret the results. The impact of ENSO shocks on food prices varies considerably according to the event, the region under consideration, and the same food item.

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  • Emediegwu Lotanna & Rogna Marco, 2026. "Food Price Dynamics under Global Climate Cycles," JRC Working Papers on Economic Analysis of Policies for Africa 2026-03-2, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:eapoaf:202603-2
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    File URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC146499
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