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The Financial Center Leverage Cycle: Does it Spread Around the World?

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  • Graciela L. Kaminsky
  • Leandro Medina
  • Shiyi Wang

Abstract

With a novel database, we examine the evolution of capital flows to the periphery since the collapse of the Bretton Woods System in the early 1970s. We decompose capital flows into global, regional, and idiosyncratic factors. In contrast to previous findings, which mostly use data from the 2000s, we find that booms and busts in capital flows are mainly explained by regional factors and not the global factor. We then ask, what drives these regional factors. Is it the leverage cycle in the financial center? What triggers the leverage cycle in the financial center? Is it a change in global investors’ risk appetite? Or, is it a change in the demand for capital in the periphery? We link leverage in the financial center to regional capital flows and the cost of borrowing in international capital markets to answer these questions. Our estimations indicate that regional capital flows are driven by supply shocks. Interestingly, we find that the leverage in the financial center has a time-varying behavior, with a movement away from lending to the emerging periphery in the 1970s to the 1990s towards lending to the advanced periphery in the 2000s.

Suggested Citation

  • Graciela L. Kaminsky & Leandro Medina & Shiyi Wang, 2020. "The Financial Center Leverage Cycle: Does it Spread Around the World?," NBER Working Papers 26793, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26793
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    1. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
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    3. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 2019. "Boom - Bust Capital Flow Cycles," Working Papers 2019-7, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    5. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2019. "Boom-Bust Capital Flow Cycles," NBER Working Papers 25890, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance

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