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Fiscal Policy, public investment, and structural change:A P-SVAR analysis on Italian regions

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  • Francesco Zezza
  • Dario Guarascio

Abstract

This work analyses the regional impact of public investments focusing on three domains that are key for the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP): green, digital and education/knowledge. Relying on a unique database ('Conti Pubblici Territoriali'), we perform a P-SVAR model showing that fiscal policy shocks have positive and long-lasting effects on GDP and private investments. A relevant heterogeneity is detected, though. In particular, shocks to digital spending only timidly crowd-in private investment while a stronger effect is found concerning the green sector. Second, public investments have a significant impact on regions' ‘structural upgrading’, i.e., export competitiveness and share of high-tech manufacturing. Third, confirming previous findings, shocks to public spending are found to have larger effects in centre-north regions, in terms of both GDP and private investments. Nevertheless, public spending turns out to have a stronger structural effect in the south than in the centre-north, highlighting the relevant role that the NRRP may play in reducing the Italian north-south divide

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Zezza & Dario Guarascio, 2022. "Fiscal Policy, public investment, and structural change:A P-SVAR analysis on Italian regions," Working Papers in Public Economics 226, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
    • Handle: RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp226
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    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

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