IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v102y2012i4p1619-44.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Finnish Great Depression: From Russia with Love

Author

Listed:
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko
  • Enrique G. Mendoza
  • Linda L. Tesar

Abstract

Why did Finland experience, in 1991-1993, the deepest recession observed in an industrialized country since the 1930s? Using a dynamic general equilibrium model with labor frictions, we argue that the collapse of the Soviet-Finnish trade was a major contributor to the contraction. Finland's experience mirrors that of the transition economies of Eastern Europe, which suffered similar deep recessions coupled with institutional changes. By focusing on the Finnish case, we isolate the effects of the Finnish-Soviet trade collapse and shed new light on the sources of recessions in transition economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Enrique G. Mendoza & Linda L. Tesar, 2012. "The Finnish Great Depression: From Russia with Love," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1619-1644, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:102:y:2012:i:4:p:1619-44
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.102.4.1619
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.

    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/data/june2012/20101018_data.zip
    File Function: dataset accompanying article
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pekka Sutela, 2007. "The Folklore of Finland's Eastern Trade," Europe-Asia Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(1), pages 137-162.
    2. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Enrique G. Mendoza & Linda L. Tesar, 2012. "The Finnish Great Depression: From Russia with Love," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1619-1644, June.
    3. Iara, Anna & Traistaru, Iulia, 2004. "How flexible are wages in EU accession countries?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 431-450, August.
    4. William T. Dickens & Lorenz Goette & Erica L. Groshen & Steinar Holden & Julian Messina & Mark E. Schweitzer & Jarkko Turunen & Melanie E. Ward, 2007. "How Wages Change: Micro Evidence from the International Wage Flexibility Project," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 195-214, Spring.
    5. Nauro F. Campos & Abrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-836, September.
    6. Lucjan Orlowski, 1993. "Indirect transfers in trade among former Soviet Union Republics: Sources, patterns and policy responses in the Post‐Soviet period," Europe-Asia Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 1001-1024.
    7. Peter, Klara Sabirianova & Buttrick, Steve & Duncan, Denvil, 2010. "Global Reform of Personal Income Taxation, 1981–2005: Evidence From 189 Countries," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 63(3), pages 447-478, September.
    8. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-283, April.
    9. Blanchflower, David G., 2001. "Unemployment, Well-Being, and Wage Curves in Eastern and Central Europe," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 364-402, December.
    10. Seppo Honkapohja & Erkki Koskela, 1999. "The economic crisis of the 1990s in Finland," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 14(29), pages 400-436.
    11. George A. Akerlof & Andrew K. Rose & Janet L. Yellen & Helga Hessenius, 1991. "East Germany in from the Cold: The Economic Aftermath of Currency Union," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 1-106.
    12. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    13. Petri Böckerman & Seppo Laaksonen & Jari Vainiomäki, 2006. "Micro-level evidence on wage rigidities in Finland," Working Papers 219, Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE, The Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE.
    14. Gérard Roland, 2004. "Transition and Economics: Politics, Markets, and Firms," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026268148x, December.
    15. Gérard Roland & Thierry Verdier, 1999. "Transition and the output fall," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 7(1), pages 1-28, March.
    16. Jürgen von Hagen & Iulia Traistaru-Siedschlag, 2006. "Macroeconomic Adjustment in the New EU Member States," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2006/4, May.
    17. International Monetary Fund, 2003. "Republic of Poland: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2003/188, International Monetary Fund.
    18. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2004_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Dani Rodrik, 1994. "Foreign Trade in Eastern Europe's Transition: Early Results," NBER Chapters, in: The Transition in Eastern Europe, Volume 2, Restructuring, pages 319-356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Enrique G. Mendoza & Linda L. Tesar, 1995. "Supply-Side Economics in a Global Economy," NBER Working Papers 5086, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2007. "Modeling great depressions: the depression in Finland in the 1990s," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 31(Nov), pages 16-44.
    22. Baxter, Marianne, 1992. "Fiscal Policy, Specialization, and Trade in the Two-Sector Model: The Return of Ricardo?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 713-744, August.
    23. Seppo Honkapohja & Erkki Koskela & Jouko Paunio, 1996. "The depression of the 1990s in Finland : an analytic view," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 37-54, Spring.
    24. Gabor Kertesi & Janos Kollo, 1997. "The Birth of the "Wage Curve" in Hungary, 1989-1995," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 104, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    25. Groth, Charlotta, 2006. "Calibrating capital adjustment costs in the New-Keynesian model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 26-30, October.
    26. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    27. Finn, Mary G, 2000. "Perfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 400-416, August.
    28. Mendoza, Enrique G & Tesar, Linda L, 1998. "The International Ramifications of Tax Reforms: Supply-Side Economics in a Global Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 226-245, March.
    29. Petri Böckerman & Roope Uusitalo, 2006. "Erosion of the Ghent System and Union Membership Decline: Lessons from Finland," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 44(2), pages 283-303, June.
    30. Dmitri Steinberg, 1992. "The Soviet defence burden: Estimating hidden defence costs," Europe-Asia Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(2), pages 237-263.
    31. Lars Jonung, 2008. "Lessons from Financial Liberalisation in Scandinavia," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 50(4), pages 564-598, December.
    32. Repkine, Alexandre & Walsh, Patrick Paul, 1999. "Evidence of European Trade and Investment U-Shaping Industrial Output in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, and Romania," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 730-752, December.
    33. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 2004. "New Deal Policies and the Persistence of the Great Depression: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 779-816, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simona E. Cociuba, 2019. "The Collapse And Recovery Of The Capital Share In East Germany After 1989," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(4), pages 2035-2057, October.
    2. Petri Böckerman & Seppo Laaksonen & Jari Vainiomäki, 2009. "Micro-level Rigidity vs. Macro-level Flexibility: Lessons from Finland," Working Papers 0972, Tampere University, Faculty of Management and Business, Economics.
    3. Pascal Michaillat, 2012. "Do Matching Frictions Explain Unemployment? Not in Bad Times," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1721-1750, June.
    4. Kuusi, Tero, 2015. "The Finnish Great Depression of the 1990s: Soviet Trade or Home-Made?," ETLA Working Papers 32, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    5. Gulan, Adam & Haavio, Markus & Kilponen, Juha, 2021. "Can large trade shocks cause crises? The case of the Finnish–Soviet trade collapse," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    6. Walsh, Patrick Paul & Whelan, Ciara, 2001. "Firm performance and the political economy of corporate governance: survey evidence for Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia and Slovenia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 85-112, June.
    7. Huang, Kevin X.D. & Meng, Qinglai, 2012. "Increasing returns and unsynchronized wage adjustment in sunspot models of the business cycle," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 284-309.
    8. Andrei Polbin & Sergey Drobyshevsky, 2014. "Developing a Dynamic Stochastic Model of General Equilibrium for the Russian Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 166P, pages 156-156.
    9. Mathias Trabandt & Harald Uhlig, 2006. "How Far Are We From The Slippery Slope? The Laffer Curve Revisited," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-023, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    10. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 2005. "The Wage Curve Reloaded," NBER Working Papers 11338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Petri Böckerman & Roope Uusitalo, 2009. "Minimum Wages and Youth Employment: Evidence from the Finnish Retail Trade Sector," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 47(2), pages 388-405, June.
    12. Kuusi Tero, 2019. "The Finnish Great Depression of the 1990s: reconciling theory and evidence," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 1-29, June.
    13. Zhen Huo & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2012. "Engineering a paradox of thrift recession," Staff Report 478, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    14. Hansen, G.D. & Ohanian, L.E., 2016. "Neoclassical Models in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2043-2130, Elsevier.
    15. Petri Böckerman & Seppo Laaksonen & Jari Vainiomäki, 2010. "Micro and Macro Level Wage Rigidity: Lessons from Finland," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 27-42, Spring.
    16. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2006. "Medium-Term Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 523-551, June.
    17. Burda, Michael C. & Severgnini, Battista, 2014. "Solow residuals without capital stocks," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 154-171.
    18. Munechika Katayama, 2013. "Declining Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 977-1016, September.
    19. Alisdair McKay & Ricardo Reis, 2016. "The Role of Automatic Stabilizers in the U.S. Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 141-194, January.
    20. Harrison, Sharon G. & Weder, Mark, 2006. "Did sunspot forces cause the Great Depression?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1327-1339, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • P2 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. The Finnish Great Depression: From Russia with Love (AER 2012) in ReplicationWiki

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:102:y:2012:i:4:p:1619-44. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.