IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/4064.html

Foreign Trade in Eastern Europe's Transition: Early Results

Author

Listed:
  • Dani Rodrik

Abstract

By the end of 1991, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Poland have achieved a substantial degree of openness to foreign trade. In all three countries, trade is now de-monopolized and licensing and quotas playa very small role. Exchange controls have virtually disappeared for current-account transactions. Judging by partner statistics, export performance has been impressive in all three countries, and import booms are under way in at least Hungary and Poland as well. However, there is no evidence that exporters have had any success in finding Western markets for the exports they have lost in Eastern markets. The collapse of the CMEA represents a significant shock, amounting to a loss of real income of 3 1/2 percent of GDP in Poland and 7-8 percent of GDP in Hungary and Czechoslovakia. Export performance is attributable to exchange-rate policy in part, but the collapse of domestic demand has possibly played an even more important role. Finally, trade liberalization so far appears to have had little effect on price discipline, in large part because of the substantial devaluations that have accompanied it

Suggested Citation

  • Dani Rodrik, 1992. "Foreign Trade in Eastern Europe's Transition: Early Results," NBER Working Papers 4064, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4064
    Note: ITI
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w4064.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Murphy, Kevin M. & Shleifer, Andrei, 1997. "Quality and trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-15, June.
    2. Peter B. Kenen, 1991. "Transitional Arrangements for Trade and Payments among the CMEA Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(2), pages 235-267, June.
    3. Gabor Oblath & David Tarr, 2017. "The Terms-of-Trade Effects from the Elimination of State Trading in Soviet-Hungarian Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Trade Policies for Development and Transition, chapter 13, pages 295-313, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Wang, Zhen Kun & Winters, L. Alan, 1991. "The Trading Potential of Eastern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 610, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    5. Dani Rodrik, 1992. "Making Sense of the Soviet Trade Shock in Eastern Europe: A Framework and Some Estimates," NBER Working Papers 4112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jean-Charles Asselain & François Bourguignon, 1994. "Convertibilité précoce et protection par le change : un premier bilan de la réinsertion internationale des pays de l'Est," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 45(3), pages 833-844.
    2. Rodrik, Dani, 1992. "Making Sense of the Soviet Trade Shock in Eastern Europe: A Framework and Some Estimates," CEPR Discussion Papers 705, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    3. Hinojosa-Ojeda, Raul & Robinson, Sherman & Tesche, Jean, 1992. "Hungary, Austria, and the European Community: A CGE Model of Economic Refrom and Integration," CUDARE Working Papers 198597, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    4. Michael Bruno, 1994. "Stabilization and Reform in Eastern Europe: A Preliminary Evaluation," NBER Chapters, in: The Transition in Eastern Europe, Volume 1, Country Studies, pages 19-50, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Kazimierz Stanczak, 1994. "Endogenous Market Power and Adjustment under Fixed Exchange Rates: Interpreting the Polish Experience 1990-1991," UCLA Economics Working Papers 714, UCLA Department of Economics.
    6. Schmieding, Holger, 1991. "External protection for the emerging market economies? The case for financial liberalisation instead of import barriers in Eastern Europe," Kiel Working Papers 498, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    7. Jagdambe, Subhash & Kannan, Elumalai, 2020. "Effects of ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement on agricultural trade: The gravity model approach," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    8. Irena Jindrichovska & Erginbay Ugurlu & Eleftherios I. Thalassinos, 2020. "Exploring the Trend of Czech FDIs and their Effect to Institutional Environment," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(1), pages 94-108.
    9. Haq, Zahoor Ul & Meilke, Karl D. & Cranfield, John A.L., 2011. "The Gravity Model and the Problem of Zero's in Agrifood Trade," Working Papers 116851, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.
    10. Drapkin, I. & Mariev, O. & Chukavina, K., 2015. "Inflow and Outflow Potentials of Foreign Direct Investment in the Russian Economy: Numerical Estimation Based on the Gravity Approach," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 75-95.
    11. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Ernesto Stein & Shang-Jin Wei, 1998. "Continental Trading Blocs: Are They Natural or Supernatural?," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 91-120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Peter Egger, 2001. "European Integration in Trade and FDI: A Dynamic Perspective," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(02), pages 30-35, October.
    13. Avanesyan, Vahram & Freinkman, Lev, 2002. "Costing-out the Big Bang: Impact of external shocks on the Armenian economy at the outset of transition," MPRA Paper 10012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Peter Egger, 1998. "Exportpotentiale zwischen Österreich und den benachbarten MOEL. Simulationsergebnisse aus einem panelökonometrischen Gravitationsmodell," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 71(11), pages 751-759, November.
    15. Matthew McPherson & William Trumbull, 2003. "What If U.S.-Cuban Trade Were Based on Fundamentals Instead of Political Policy? Estimating Potential Trade with Cuba," Annual Proceedings, The Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, vol. 13.
    16. Paul Hare & Alan Bevan & Jon Stern & Saul Estrin, 2000. "Supply Responses in the Economies of the Former Soviet Union," CERT Discussion Papers 0009, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
    17. Jan Stankovsky & Yvonne Wolfmayr, 2004. "Interessante Absatzmärkte und Exportpotentiale für die österreichische Industrie," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 77(6), pages 473-490, June.
    18. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "The cyclical nature of North-South FDI flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 104-130, February.
    19. Stehn, Jürgen, 1994. "Stufen einer Osterweiterung der Europäischen Union," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1603, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    20. Françoise Lemoine & Claude Leroy, 1992. "Les échanges des pays d'Europe centre-orientale : l'écueil d'une double concurrence," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 260(1), pages 37-48.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4064. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.