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Citations for "Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability"

by West, K.D.

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  1. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2008. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Diffusion Indexes in Short Samples with Structural Change," CEPR Discussion Papers 6706, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Steven Trypsteen, . "The Importance of a Time-Varying Variance and Cross-Country Interactions in Forecast Models," Discussion Papers 2014/15, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  3. Martinsen, Kjetil & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Wulfsberg, Fredrik, 2014. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables using disaggregate survey data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 65-77.
  4. Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2012. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 9059, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Clements, M.P. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Smith, J., 1999. "On SETAR non- linearity and forecasting," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9914-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  6. Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts & Francesco Violante, 2009. "On Loss Functions and Ranking Forecasting Performances of Multivariate Volatility Models," Cahiers de recherche 0948, CIRPEE.
  7. Richard A. Ashley & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2013. "Sensitivity Analysis of Inference in GMM Estimation With Possibly-Flawed Moment Conditions," Working Papers e07-40, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
  8. Marcelle Chauvet & Zeynep Senyuz & Emre Yoldas, 2012. "What does financial volatility tell us about macroeconomic fluctuations?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Kajal Lahiri & Liu Yang, 2012. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Discussion Papers 12-09, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  10. Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2015. "The three-pass regression filter: A new approach to forecasting using many predictors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 294-316.
  11. Tommaso Proietti, 2015. "Exponential Smoothing, Long Memory and Volatility Prediction," CREATES Research Papers 2015-51, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  12. Xiangjin B. Chen & Jiti Gao & Degui Li & Param Silvapulle, 2013. "Nonparametric Estimation and Parametric Calibration of Time-Varying Coefficient Realized Volatility Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 21/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  13. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Ranking Multivariate GARCH Models by Problem Dimension," Working Papers in Economics 10/34, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  14. Wang, Yudong & Ma, Feng & Wei, Yu & Wu, Chongfeng, 2016. "Forecasting realized volatility in a changing world: A dynamic model averaging approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 136-149.
  15. Tsiaras, Leonidas, 2009. "The Forecast Performance of Competing Implied Volatility Measures: The Case of Individual Stocks," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2009-02, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
  16. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "In-sample vs. out-of-sample tests of stock return predictability in the context of data mining," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 231-247, March.
  17. Diaa Noureldin & Neil Shephard & Kevin Sheppard, 2011. "Multivariate High-Frequency-Based Volatility (HEAVY) Models," Economics Papers 2011-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  18. Heejoon Han & Myung D. Park & Shen Zhang, 2015. "A Multiplicative Error Model with Heterogeneous Components for Forecasting Realized Volatility," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 209-219, 04.
  19. Kawakami, Kei, 2013. "Conditional forecast selection from many forecasts: An application to the Yen/Dollar exchange rate," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-18.
  20. Corradi, V. & Swanson, N.R., 2000. "A Consistent Test for Nonlinear Out of Sample Predictive Accuracy," Discussion Papers 0012, Exeter University, Department of Economics.
  21. Peter Hansen & Asger Lunde, 2003. "Testing the Significance of Calendar Effects," Working Papers 2003-03, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  22. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2012. "Robust Ranking of Multivariate GARCH Models by Problem Dimension," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2012-06, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, revised Apr 2012.
  23. Shintani, Mototsugu, 2005. "Nonlinear Forecasting Analysis Using Diffusion Indexes: An Application to Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 517-38, June.
  24. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2005. "Land Inequality and the Origin of Divergence and Overtaking in the Growth Process: Theory and Evidence," 2005 Meeting Papers 24, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  25. Bazdresch, Santiago & Werner, Alejandro, 2005. "Regime switching models for the Mexican peso," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 185-201, January.
  26. Goh, Jeremy C. & Jiang, Fuwei & Tu, Jun & Wang, Yuchen, 2013. "Can US economic variables predict the Chinese stock market?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 69-87.
  27. Biswas, Anindya, 2014. "The output gap and expected security returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 131-140.
  28. Veiga, Helena, 2006. "Volatility forecasts: a continuous time model versus discrete time models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws062509, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  29. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2010. "Understanding Models' Forecasting Performance," Working Papers 10-56, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  30. Caporin, M. & McAleer, M.J., 2011. "Ranking Multivariate GARCH Models by Problem Dimension: An Empirical Evaluation," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2011-18, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  31. Francisco Javier Eransus & Alfonso Novales Cinca, 2014. "Parameter Estimation Error in Tests of Predictive Performance under Discrete Loss Functions," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2014-22, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  32. Onur Ince, 2013. "Forecasting Exchange Rates Out-of-Sample with Panel Methods and Real-Time Data," Working Papers 13-04, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
  33. Johanna Posch & Fabio Rumler, 2015. "Semi‐Structural Forecasting of UK Inflation Based on the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 145-162, 03.
  34. M. Hashem Pesaran & Christoph Schleicher & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2008. "Model Averaging in Risk Management with an Application to Futures Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 2231, CESifo Group Munich.
  35. Katja Drechsel & S. Giesen & Axel Lindner, 2014. "Outperforming IMF Forecasts by the Use of Leading Indicators," IWH Discussion Papers 4, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  36. Feunou, Bruno & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad & Okou, Cedric, 2015. "Downside Variance Risk Premium," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  37. Philip Rothman & Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses, 1999. "A Multivariate STAR Analysis of the Relationship Between Money and Output," Working Papers 9913, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
  38. Giorgio Valente & Mark Taylor & Lucio Sarno & Richard Clarida, 2004. "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers wp04-13, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  39. Carriero, Andrea & Giacomini, Raffaella, 2011. "How useful are no-arbitrage restrictions for forecasting the term structure of interest rates?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 21-34, September.
  40. Hordahl, Peter & Tristani, Oreste & Vestin, David, 2006. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term-structure dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 405-444.
  41. Robledo, Carlos W. & Zapata, Hector O. & McCracken, Michael, 2001. "New Mse Tests For Evaluating Forecasting Performance: Empirics And Bootstrap," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20686, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  42. Krueger, Fabian & Clark, Todd E. & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2015. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts," Working Paper 1439, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  43. Pasquale Della Corte & Lucio Sarno & Giulia Sestieri, 2012. "The Predictive Information Content of External Imbalances for Exchange Rate Returns: How Much Is It Worth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 100-115, February.
  44. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Paper 1120, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  45. Lin, Wen-Ling, 1995. "Market closure and predictability of intradaily stock returns in the United States and Japan," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 19-44, March.
  46. Kruse, Robinson & Leschinski, Christian & Will, Michael, 2016. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy under Long Memory - With an Application to Volatility Forecasting," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-571, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  47. Rapach, David E. & Strauss, Jack K., 2012. "Forecasting US state-level employment growth: An amalgamation approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 315-327.
  48. Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2011. "Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size," Working Papers 11-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  49. O. De Bandt & E. Michaux & C. Bruneau & A. Flageollet, 2007. "Forecasting inflation using economic indicators: the case of France," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1-22.
  50. Pincheira, Pablo, 2013. "A Bunch of Models, a Bunch of Nulls and Inference about Predictive Ability," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 26-43, October.
  51. Sévi, Benoît, 2014. "Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures using intraday data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(3), pages 643-659.
  52. Lees, Kirdan & Matheson, Troy, 2007. "Mind your ps and qs! Improving ARMA forecasts with RBC priors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 275-281, August.
  53. Greg Tkacz & Carolyn Wilkins, 2006. "Linear and Threshold Forecasts of Output and Inflation with Stock and Housing Prices," Staff Working Papers 06-25, Bank of Canada.
  54. Tae-Hwy Lee & Weiping Yang, 2014. "Money-Income Granger-Causality in Quantiles," Working Papers 201423, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2012.
  55. Giorgio Valente & Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Modelling and forecasting stock returns: exploiting the futures market, regime shifts and international spillovers," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 345-376.
  56. Sánchez, Ismael & Peña, Daniel, 2001. "New in-sample prediction errors in time series with applications," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws011107, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  57. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2001. "Evaluating long-horizon forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 01-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  58. Norman Swanson & Valentina Corradi, 2006. "Nonparametric Bootstrap Procedures for Predictive Inference Based on Recursive Estimation Schemes," Departmental Working Papers 200618, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  59. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2011. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Working Papers CoFie-02-2011, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
  60. Metghalchi, Massoud & Chang, Yung-Ho & Marcucci, Juri, 2008. "Is the Swedish stock market efficient? Evidence from some simple trading rules," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 475-490, June.
  61. Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria & Lee, Tae-Hwy & Yoldas, Emre, 2007. "Optimality of the RiskMetrics VaR model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 137-145, September.
  62. Rangan Gupta & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Soodabeh Sarafrazi, 2013. "Can the Sharia-Based Islamic Stock Market Returns be Forecasted Using Large Number of Predictors and Models?," Working Papers 201381, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  63. Lee, Tae-Hwy & Long, Xiangdong, 2009. "Copula-based multivariate GARCH model with uncorrelated dependent errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 207-218, June.
  64. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2005. "Macro variables and international stock return predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 137-166.
  65. Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer & Rianne Legerstee, 2014. "Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts: A Concise Review Of Some Recent Developments," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 195-208, 04.
  66. Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Paolo Surico, 2005. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," Macroeconomics 0510024, EconWPA.
  67. Menzie D. Chinn & Ron Alquist, 2006. "Conventional and Unconventional Approaches to Exchange Rate Modeling and Assessment," NBER Working Papers 12481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  68. Chen, Long, 2009. "On the reversal of return and dividend growth predictability: A tale of two periods," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 128-151, April.
  69. Costas Milas & Phil Rothman, 2005. "Multivariate STAR Unemployment Rate Forecasts," Econometrics 0502010, EconWPA.
  70. Clements, Michael P. & Franses, Philip Hans & Swanson, Norman R., 2004. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 169-183.
  71. Mawuli Segnon & Thomas Lux & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Modeling and Forecasting Carbon Dioxide Emission Allowance Spot Price Volatility: Multifractal vs. GARCH-Type Volatility Models," Working Papers 201550, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  72. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "On the selection of forecasting models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 273-306, February.
  73. Rosario Dell'Aquila & Elvezio Ronchetti, 2004. "Robust tests of predictive accuracy," Metron - International Journal of Statistics, Dipartimento di Statistica, Probabilità e Statistiche Applicate - University of Rome, vol. 0(2), pages 161-184.
  74. Marco Jacopo Lombardi, 2013. "On the correlation between commodity and equity returns: implications for portfolio allocation," BIS Working Papers 420, Bank for International Settlements.
  75. Catherine L. Kling & Raymond W. Arritt & Gray Calhoun & David A. Keiser, 2016. "Research Needs and Challenges in the FEW System: Coupling Economic Models with Agronomic, Hydrologic, and Bioenergy Models for Sustainable Food, Energy, and Water Systems," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 16-wp563, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  76. Rangan Gupta & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Mampho P. Modise & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2013. "Can Economic Uncertainty, Financial Stress and Consumer Sentiments Predict U.S. Equity Premium?," Working Papers 201351, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  77. Kishor, N. Kundan, 2011. "Data revisions in India: Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 164-173, April.
  78. Hubrich, Kirstin & West, Kenneth D., 2009. "Forecast evaluation of small nested model sets," Working Paper Series 1030, European Central Bank.
  79. Sarno, Lucio & Daniel l Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2003. "Federal Funds Rate Prediction," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 183, Royal Economic Society.
  80. Kole, H.J.W.G. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2013. "How to Identify and Forecast Bull and Bear Markets?," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2013-016-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  81. Stephen E. Satchell & Shaun A. Bond, 2004. "Asymmetry, Loss Aversion and Forecasting," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 160, Econometric Society.
  82. Hubrich, Kirstin, 2005. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 119-136.
  83. Rangan Gupta & Rudi Steinbach, 2010. "Forecasting Key Macroeconomic Variables of the South African Economy: A Small Open Economy New Keynesian DSGE-VAR Model," Working Papers 201019, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  84. Abdymomunov, Azamat, 2013. "Predicting output using the entire yield curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 333-344.
  85. Allan Timmermann & Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer, 2004. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 601, Econometric Society.
  86. Santosh Mishra & Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2004. "Jumps in Rank and Expected Returns. Introducing Varying Cross-sectional Risk," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 356, Econometric Society.
  87. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2009. "The Carry Trade and Fundamentals: Nothing to Fear But FEER Itself," NBER Working Papers 15518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  88. Issler, João Victor & Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira, 2007. "A panel data approach to economic forecasting: the bias-corrected average forecast," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 642, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  89. Rómulo Chumacero, 2004. "Forecasting Chilean Industrial Production and Sales with Automated Procedures," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 260, Central Bank of Chile.
  90. West, K.D. & Cho, D., 1993. "The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," Working papers 9317r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  91. M. Hashem Pesaran & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2004. "Model Averaging and Value-at-Risk Based Evaluation of Large Multi Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management," CESifo Working Paper Series 1358, CESifo Group Munich.
  92. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Forecasting Inflation," NBER Working Papers 7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  93. Asger Lunde & Peter R. Hansen, 2005. "A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 873-889.
  94. Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2014. "Forecasting the density of oil futures," Working Papers 2014-601, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  95. Ashley, Richard, 2003. "Statistically significant forecasting improvements: how much out-of-sample data is likely necessary?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 229-239.
  96. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan G, 2007. "Forecasts of US Short-term Interest Rates: A Flexible Forecast Combination Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6188, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  97. Francesco D’Amuri & Juri Marcucci, 2010. "“Google it!”Forecasting the US Unemployment Rate with a Google Job Search index," Working Papers 2010.31, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  98. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," CEPR Discussion Papers 4976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  99. Pablo Pincheira & Andrés Gatty, 2014. "Forecasting Chilean Inflation with International Factors," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 723, Central Bank of Chile.
  100. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2015. "Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data," Staff Working Papers 15-24, Bank of Canada.
  101. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2015. "Nested forecast model comparisons: A new approach to testing equal accuracy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 160-177.
  102. Byun, Sung Je, 2016. "The usefulness of cross-sectional dispersion for forecasting aggregate stock price volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 162-180.
  103. Clarida, Richard & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P & Valente, Giorgio, 2002. "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond," CEPR Discussion Papers 3281, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  104. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2008. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Footloose or Evolving Relationship?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6638, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  105. René Garcia & Richard Luger & Eric Renault, 2000. "Empirical Assessment of an Intertemporal Option Pricing Model with Latent Variables," Working Papers 2000-56, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  106. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Forecast evaluation and combination," Research Paper 9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  107. Dudek, Sławomir, 2008. "Consumer Survey Data and short-term forecasting of households consumption expenditures in Poland," MPRA Paper 19818, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  108. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  109. Ferrara, Laurent & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mogliani, Matteo, 2015. "Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: The return of non-linearity?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 664-679.
  110. Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1999. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1647-1691, October.
  111. Han, Heejoon & Kutan, Ali M. & Ryu, Doojin, 2015. "Modeling and predicting the market volatility index: The case of VKOSPI," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-7, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  112. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  113. Valentina Corradi & Andres Fernandez & Norman R. Swanson, 2008. "Information in the revision process of real-time datasets," Working Papers 08-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  114. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2006. "Predictive density and conditional confidence interval accuracy tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 187-228.
  115. Thomas A. Knetsch, 2004. "Evaluating the German Inventory Cycle – Using Data from the Ifo Business Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 1202, CESifo Group Munich.
  116. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2005. "The power of tests of predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-31, January.
  117. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 1999. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Research Working Paper 99-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  118. Dinh H B Phan & Susan S Sharma & Paresh K Narayan, . "Stock Return Forecasting: Some New Evidence," Financial Econometics Series 2015_13, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  119. Peter Reinhard Hansen & Asger Lunde & James M. Nason, 2003. "Choosing the best volatility models: the model confidence set approach," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  120. repec:lan:wpaper:2364 is not listed on IDEAS
  121. Nicoletti-Altimari, Sergio, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 0063, European Central Bank.
  122. Giacomini, Raffaella & White, Halbert, 2003. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5jk0j5jh, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  123. Yu-chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Working Papers UWEC-2008-11-FC, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2009.
  124. Brandt, Michael W. & Wu, Tao, 2002. "Cross-sectional tests of deterministic volatility functions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 525-550, December.
  125. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2004. "The yield curve, recessions, and the credibility of the monetary regime: long-run evidence, 1875-1997," Working Paper 0402, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  126. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Brubakk, Leif & Jore, Anne Sofie, 2006. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Memorandum 11/2006, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  127. Hofmann, Boris, 2008. "Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation?," Working Paper Series 0867, European Central Bank.
  128. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction: economic fundamentals vs. moving-average rules," Working Papers 2010-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  129. Cavit Pakel & Neil Shephard & Kevin Sheppard, 2009. "Nuisance parameters, composite likelihoods and a panel of GARCH models," Economics Papers 2009-W12, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  130. Garrat, A. & Lee, K. & Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 2000. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0004, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  131. Cătălin Stărică & Clive Granger, 2005. "Nonstationarities in Stock Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 503-522, August.
  132. Jian Wang & Jason J. Wu, 2012. "The Taylor Rule and Forecast Intervals for Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 103-144, 02.
  133. Cees Diks & Valentyn Panchenko & Dick Van Dijk, 2011. "Likelihood-based scoring rules for comparing density forecasts in tails," Post-Print hal-00834423, HAL.
  134. Christophe M. Boucher & Jon Danielsson & Patrick S. Kouontchou & Bertrand B. Maillet, 2013. "Risk models–at–risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59299, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  135. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 65-90.
  136. Abhyankar, Abhay & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on the Economic Value of Predictability," CEPR Discussion Papers 4365, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  137. Medel, Carlos A. & Salgado, Sergio C., 2012. "Does BIC Estimate and Forecast Better than AIC?," MPRA Paper 42235, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  138. Byrne, Joseph P. & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2016. "Exchange rate predictability in a changing world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-24.
  139. repec:att:wimass:9710 is not listed on IDEAS
  140. repec:lan:wpaper:2587 is not listed on IDEAS
  141. repec:ipg:wpaper:2013-031 is not listed on IDEAS
  142. Giacomini, Raffaella, 2002. "Comparing Density Forecasts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests: Asymptotic and Bootstrap Methods," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt59s2g5j5, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  143. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2013. "Conditional predictive density evaluation in the presence of instabilities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 199-212.
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  341. Pincheira, Pablo & Selaive, Jorge & Nolazco, Jose Luis, 2016. "The Evasive Predictive Ability of Core Inflation," MPRA Paper 68704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  342. Adam Clements & Yin Liao, 2014. "The role in index jumps and cojumps in forecasting stock index volatility: Evidence from the Dow Jones index," NCER Working Paper Series 101, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  343. Marcelle Chauvet & Elcyon C. R. Lima & Brisne Vasquez, 2002. "Forecasting Brazilian output in the presence of breaks: a comparison of linear and nonlinear models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  344. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2003. "Some Recent Developments in Predictive Accuracy Testing With Nested Models and (Generic) Nonlinear Alternatives," Departmental Working Papers 200316, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
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  346. Stefano Giglio & Bryan T. Kelly & Seth Pruitt, 2015. "Systemic Risk and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 20963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  347. Lunsford, Kurt G., 2015. "Forecasting residential investment in the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 276-285.
  348. Nyberg , Henri & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2012. "Forecasting with a noncausal VAR model," Research Discussion Papers 33/2012, Bank of Finland.
  349. Tong Li, 2006. "Simulation based selection of competing structural econometric models," CeMMAP working papers CWP16/06, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  350. Ferraro, Domenico & Rogoff, Kenneth & Rossi, Barbara, 2015. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates? An empirical analysis of the relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 116-141.
  351. Molodtsova, Tanya & Papell, David H., 2009. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability with Taylor rule fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 167-180, April.
  352. Minford, Patrick & Xu, Yongdeng & Zhou, Peng, 2014. "How good are out of sample forecasting Tests on DSGE models?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2014/11, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  353. Grassi, Stefano & Proietti, Tommaso & Frale, Cecilia & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mazzi, Gianluigi, 2015. "EuroMInd-C: A disaggregate monthly indicator of economic activity for the Euro area and member countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 712-738.
  354. Capistrán, Carlos & López-Moctezuma, Gabriel, 2010. "Las expectativas macroeconómicas de los especialistas. Una evaluación de pronósticos de corto plazo en México," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(306), pages 275-312, abril-jun.
  355. Giglio, Stefano & Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2016. "Systemic risk and the macroeconomy: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 457-471.
  356. De Pace, Pierangelo & Weber, Kyle D., 2016. "The time-varying leading properties of the high yield spread in the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 203-230.
  357. Alfonso Dufour & Robert F Engle, 2000. "The ACD Model: Predictability of the Time Between Concecutive Trades," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2000-05, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  358. Patton, Andrew J., 2011. "Volatility forecast comparison using imperfect volatility proxies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 246-256, January.
  359. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
  360. Marc Joëts, 2013. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Regret, and Uncertainty: The Role of Speculation in Energy Price Dynamics," Working Papers 2013.32, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  361. Kyungchul Song, 2009. "Testing Predictive Ability and Power Robustification," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-035, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  362. Lanne, Markku & Luoto, Jani & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2010. "Optimal Forecasting of Noncausal Autoregressive Time Series," MPRA Paper 23648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  363. Hueng, C. James, 1999. "Money demand in an open-economy shopping-time model: an out-of-sample-prediction application to Canada," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 489-503.
  364. Niels S. Hansen & Asger Lunde, 2013. "Analyzing Oil Futures with a Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model," CREATES Research Papers 2013-36, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  365. Şener, Emrah & Baronyan, Sayad & Ali Mengütürk, Levent, 2012. "Ranking the predictive performances of value-at-risk estimation methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 849-873.
  366. Pablo M. Pincheira & Carlos A. Medel, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation with a Simple and Accurate Benchmark: The Case of the US and a Set of Inflation Targeting Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(1), pages 2-29, January.
  367. Gubanova, Tatiana & Lohr, Luanne & Park, Timothy A., 2005. "Forecasting Organic Food Prices: Emerging Methods for Testing and Evaluating Conditional Predictive Ability," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19045, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  368. Fresoli, Diego & Ruiz, Esther & Pascual, Lorenzo, 2011. "Bootstrap forecast of multivariate VAR models without using the backward representation," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws113426, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  369. Jonathan Hambur & Lynne Cockerell & Christopher Potter & Penelope Smith & Michelle Wright, 2015. "Modelling the Australian Dollar," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2015-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  370. J. Isaac Miller, 2014. "Simple Robust Tests for the Specification of High-Frequency Predictors of a Low-Frequency Series," Working Papers 1412, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
  371. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2011. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 59(2), pages 340-378, June.
  372. Gneiting, Tilmann, 2011. "Making and Evaluating Point Forecasts," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(494), pages 746-762.
  373. Byrne, Joseph P. & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2014. "On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-24, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  374. Neil R. Ericsson, 2001. "Forecast uncertainty in economic modeling," International Finance Discussion Papers 697, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  375. Bontemps, Christian, 2013. "Moment-Based Tests for Discrete Distributions," IDEI Working Papers 772, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Oct 2014.
  376. Brock,W.A. & Durlauf,S.N., 2004. "Macroeconomics and model uncertainty," Working papers 20, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  377. Raffaella Giacomini, 2014. "Economic theory and forecasting: lessons from the literature," CeMMAP working papers CWP41/14, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  378. Swanson, Norman R. & Urbach, Richard, 2015. "Prediction and simulation using simple models characterized by nonstationarity and seasonality," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 312-323.
  379. Ryan Ratcliff, 2010. "Predicting nominal exchange rate movements using skewness information from options prices," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 75-92.
  380. Chu, Chia-Shang & Lu, Liping & Shi, Zhentao, 2009. "Pitfalls in market timing test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 123-126, June.
  381. Andreas Billmeier, 2004. "Ghostbusting; Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?," IMF Working Papers 04/146, International Monetary Fund.
  382. Andreas Billmeier, 2009. "Ghostbusting: which output gap really matters?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 391-419, December.
  383. Ma, Feng & Wei, Yu & Huang, Dengshi & Chen, Yixiang, 2014. "Which is the better forecasting model? A comparison between HAR-RV and multifractality volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 405(C), pages 171-180.
  384. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2013. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 305-319.
  385. Kei Kawakami, 2008. "Forecast Selection by Conditional Predictive Ability Tests: An Application to the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 08-E-1, Bank of Japan.
  386. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Forecast comparisons in unstable environments," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 595-620.
  387. Alonso Gomez & John M Maheu & Alex Maynard, 2008. "Improving Forecasts of Inflation using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers tecipa-319, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  388. C. Emre Alper & Salih Fendoglu & Burak Saltoglu, 2009. "MIDAS Volatility Forecast Performance Under Market Stress: Evidence from Emerging and Developed Stock Markets," Working Papers 2009/04, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
  389. Nii Ayi Armah & Norman Swanson, 2011. "Some variables are more worthy than others: new diffusion index evidence on the monitoring of key economic indicators," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1-2), pages 43-60.
  390. Fraire, Francisco & Leatham, David J., 2006. "Decision Making Tool to Hedge Exchange Rate Risk," Proceedings: 2006 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, October 2-3, 2006; Washington, DC 133082, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
  391. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2007. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data: Forecasting US Output Growth," Working Papers 616, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  392. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2009. "Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1187-1206.
  393. West, Kenneth D. & Wong, Ka-Fu, 2014. "A factor model for co-movements of commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 289-309.
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  395. Kapetanios, G. & Tzavalis, E., 2010. "Modeling structural breaks in economic relationships using large shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 417-436, March.
  396. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2002. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: new evidence from a century of data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 359-385, December.
  397. Bhatt, Vipul & Kishor, N. Kundan, 2015. "Are all movements in food and energy prices transitory? Evidence from India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 92-106.
  398. Sainan Jin & Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2015. "Robust Forecast Comparison," Departmental Working Papers 201502, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  399. Kerkhof, Jeroen & Melenberg, Bertrand & Schumacher, Hans, 2010. "Model risk and capital reserves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 267-279, January.
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  402. Marc Joëts, 2013. "Heterogeneous beliefs, regret, and uncertainty: The role of speculation in energy price dynamics," Working Papers 2013-31, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  403. Zongwu Cai & Jiancheng Jiang & Jingshuang Zhang & Xibin Zhang, 2015. "A new semiparametric test for superior predictive ability," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 389-405, February.
  404. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R. & Olivetti, Claudia, 2001. "Predictive ability with cointegrated variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 315-358, September.
  405. Pablo Pincheira & Roberto Álvarez, 2012. "Evaluation of Short Run Inflation Forecasts in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 674, Central Bank of Chile.
  406. Giampiero M. Gallo & Yongmiao Hong & Tae-Why Lee, 2001. "Modelling the Impact of Overnight Surprises on Intra-daily Stock Returns," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2001_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
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  408. Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise & Josine Uwilingiye, 2011. "Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Predictability in South Africa: Evidence from a Large Number of Predictors," Working Papers 201122, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  409. Ana María Abarca & Felipe Alarcón & Pablo Pincheira & Jorge Selaive, 2007. "Chilean Nominal Exchange Rate: Forecasting Based Upon Technical Analysis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 425, Central Bank of Chile.
  410. Neil R. Ericsson, 2000. "Predictable uncertainty in economic forecasting," International Finance Discussion Papers 695, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  411. Emre Alper, C. & Fendoglu, Salih & Saltoglu, Burak, 2012. "MIDAS volatility forecast performance under market stress: Evidence from emerging stock markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 528-532.
  412. Kishor N. Kundan, 2010. "The Superiority of Greenbook Forecasts and the Role of Recessions," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 74, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  413. George Athanasopoulos & D.S. Poskitt & Farshid Vahid & Wenying Yao, 2014. "Determination of long-run and short-run dynamics in EC-VARMA models via canonical correlations," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 22/14, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  414. Patton, Andrew J., 2011. "Data-based ranking of realised volatility estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 284-303, April.
  415. Capistrán, Carlos & Constandse, Christian & Ramos-Francia, Manuel, 2010. "Multi-horizon inflation forecasts using disaggregated data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 666-677, May.
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  417. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2007. "Inference about predictive ability when there are many predictors," Working Papers w0096, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
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This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.