Early Detection Techniques for Market Risk Failure
The implementation of appropriate statistical techniques for monitoring conditional VaR models, i.e, backtesting, reported by institutions is fundamental to determine their exposure to market risk. Backtesting techniques are important since the severity of the departures of the VaR model from market results determine the penalties imposed for inadequate VaR models. In this paper we make six contributions to backtesting techniques. In particular, we show that the Kupiec test can be viewed as a combination of CUSUM change point tests; we detail the lack of power of CUSUM methods in detecting violations of VaR as soon as these occur; we develop an alternative technique based on weighted U-statistic type processes that have power against wrong specifications of the risk measure and early detection; we show these new backtesting techniques are robust to the presence of estimation risk; we construct a new class of weight functions that can be used to weight our processes; and our methods are applicable both under conditional and unconditional VaR settings.
|Date of creation:||2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Department of Economics, Social Sciences Building, City University London, Whiskin Street, London, EC1R 0JD, United Kingdom,|
Phone: +44 (0)20 7040 8500
Web page: http://www.city.ac.uk
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2004.
"CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 367-381, October.
- Robert Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2000. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0841, Econometric Society.
- Engle, Robert F & Manganelli, Simone, 1999. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt06m3d6nv, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Gombay Edit & Horváth Lajos & Husková Marie, 1996. "Estimators And Tests For Change In Variances," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 145-160, February.
- Mc Cracken, Michael W., 2000. "Robust out-of-sample inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 195-223, December.
- Kenneth D. West, 1994.
"Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability,"
- Leisch, Friedrich & Hornik, Kurt & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 2000. "Monitoring Structural Changes With The Generalized Fluctuation Test," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(06), pages 835-854, December.
- Filippo Altissimo & Valentina Corradi, 2000. "Strong Rules for Detecting the Number of Breaks in a Time Series," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0574, Econometric Society.
- Andreou, Elena & Ghysels, Eric, 2006. "Monitoring disruptions in financial markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 77-124.
- Altissimo, Filippo & Corradi, Valentina, 2003. "Strong rules for detecting the number of breaks in a time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 207-244, December.
- Csörgo, Miklós & Horváth, Lajos, 1988. "Invariance principles for changepoint problems," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 151-168, October.
- Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Koenker, Roger & Xiao, Zhijie, 2006. "Quantile Autoregression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 980-990, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cty:dpaper:08/09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Research Publications Librarian)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.