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Citations for "Forecasting Economic Time Series"

by Clements,Michael & Hendry,David

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  1. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Forecasting with vector autoregressive models of data vintages: US output growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 698-714.
  2. Schumacher Christian & Dreger Christian, 2004. "Estimating Large-Scale Factor Models for Economic Activity in Germany: Do They Outperform Simpler Models? / Die Schätzung von großen Faktormodellen für die deutsche Volkswirtschaft: Übertreffen sie ei," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 224(6), pages 731-750, December.
  3. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan G, 2007. "Forecasts of US Short-term Interest Rates: A Flexible Forecast Combination Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6188, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Hubrich, Kirstin, 2003. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Working Paper Series 0247, European Central Bank.
  5. Gupta, Rangan & Modise, Mampho P., 2013. "Macroeconomic Variables and South African Stock Return Predictability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 612-622.
  6. Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006. "Forecasting economic aggregates by disaggregates," Working Paper Series 0589, European Central Bank.
  7. Jari Hännikäinen, 2016. "Selection of an Estimation Window in the Presence of Data Revisions and Recent Structural Breaks," Working Papers 1692, University of Tampere, School of Management, Economics.
  8. Zeyyad Mandalinci, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: An Evaluation of Alternative Models," CReMFi Discussion Papers 3, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
  9. Ralf Brueggemann & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2011. "Forecasting Contemporaneous Aggregates with Stochastic Aggregation Weights," Economics Working Papers ECO2011/17, European University Institute.
  10. Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2003. "Do we make better forecasts these days? A survey amongst academics," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2003-06, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  11. Siem Jan Koopman & Michel van der Wel, 2011. "Forecasting the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates using a Macroeconomic Smooth Dynamic Factor Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-063/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  12. Ronald Bewley & Minxian Yang, 2006. "A hybrid forecasting approach for piece-wise stationary time series," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(7), pages 513-527.
  13. CIVCIR Irfan, "undated". "The Monetary Models of the Turkish Lira/Dollar Exchange Rate: Long-run Relationships, Short-run Dynamics and Forecasting," EcoMod2003 330700038, EcoMod.
  14. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2010. "Automatic Selection for Non-linear Models," Economics Series Working Papers 473, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  15. Veiga, Helena & Ruiz, Esther & Gonçalves Mazzeu, Joao Henrique, 2015. "Model uncertainty and the forecast accuracy of ARMA models: A survey," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1508, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  16. Bates, Brandon J. & Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2013. "Consistent Factor Estimation in Dynamic Factor Models with Structural Instability," Scholarly Articles 28469786, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  17. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2016. "Policy Analysis, Forediction, and Forecast Failure," Economics Series Working Papers 809, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  18. Koo, Bonsoo & Seo, Myung Hwan, 2015. "Structural-break models under mis-specification: Implications for forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 166-181.
  19. Mehmet Pinar & Thanasis Stengos & M. Ege Yazgan, 2012. "Is there an Optimal Forecast Combination? A Stochastic Dominance Approach to Forecast Combination Puzzle," Working Paper Series 17_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  20. Liudas Giraitis & George Kapetanios & Simon Price, 2012. "Adaptive Forcasting in the Presence of Recent and Ongoing Structural Change," CAMA Working Papers 2012-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  21. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654.
  22. Òscar Jordá & Malte Knuppel & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Empirical simultaneous prediction regions for path-forecasts," Working Paper Series 2012-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  23. Bruér, Mattias, 2002. "Can Demography Improve Inflation Forecasts? The Case of Sweden," Working Paper Series 2002:4, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  24. repec:oxf:wpaper:2002-w10 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Costas Anyfantakis & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Nikitas Pittis, 2008. "Parameter instability and forecasting performance: a Monte Carlo study," International Journal of Business Forecasting and Marketing Intelligence, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 1-20.
  26. Fildes, Robert & Wei, Yingqi & Ismail, Suzilah, 2011. "Evaluating the forecasting performance of econometric models of air passenger traffic flows using multiple error measures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 902-922.
  27. Jakab M., Zoltán & Kovács, Mihály András & Kiss, Gergely, 2006. "Mit tanultunk?. A jegybanki előrejelzések szerepe az inflációs cél követésének első öt évében Magyarországon
    [What are we studying?. The role of central-bank forecasts in Hungarian inflation target
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1101-1134.
  28. Robert Sollis, 2005. "Predicting returns and volatility with macroeconomic variables: evidence from tests of encompassing," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 221-231.
  29. Guillen, Osmani Teixeira Carvalho & Hecq, Alain & Issler, João Victor & Saraiva, Diogo Vinícius Menezes, 2015. "Forecasting multivariate time series under present-value-model short- and long-run co-movement restrictions," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 763, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  30. Dick Dijk & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel Wel & Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 693-712, 08.
  31. Belmonte, Miguel A & Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2011. "Hierarchical Shrinkage in Time-Varying Parameter Models," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-68, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  32. Ricardo Nunes, 2013. "Do central banks’ forecasts take into account public opinion and views?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1080, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  33. Kapetanios, G. & Tzavalis, E., 2010. "Modeling structural breaks in economic relationships using large shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 417-436, March.
  34. Lui, Silvia & Mitchell, James & Weale, Martin, 2011. "The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1128-1146, October.
  35. Dr Silvia Lui & Dr Martin Weale & Dr. James Mitchell, 2008. "Qualitative Business Surveys: Signal or Noise?," NIESR Discussion Papers 323, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  36. Gospodinov, Nikolay, 2016. "The role of commodity prices in forecasting U.S. core inflation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2016-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  37. Allan Timmermann & Andrew J. Patton, 2004. "Properties of Optimal Forecasts," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 234, Econometric Society.
  38. Prasad S Bhattacharya & Dimitrios D Thomakos, 2011. "Improving forecasting performance by window and model averaging," CAMA Working Papers 2011-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  39. George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard & Simon Price, 2006. "Forecasting using Bayesian and Information Theoretic Model Averaging: An Application to UK Inflation," Working Papers 566, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  40. Øyvind Eitrheim & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2002. "Progress from forecast failure -- the Norwegian consumption function," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 40-64, June.
  41. Roberto Savona & Marika Vezzoli, 2015. "Fitting and Forecasting Sovereign Defaults using Multiple Risk Signals," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(1), pages 66-92, 02.
  42. Stahl, Gerhard & Sibbertsen, Philipp & Bertram, Philip, 2011. "Modellrisiko = Spezifikation + Validierung," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-468, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  43. Thomas B. Götz & Alain Hecq & Jean‐Pierre Urbain, 2014. "Forecasting Mixed‐Frequency Time Series with ECM‐MIDAS Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 198-213, 04.
  44. Kei Kawakami, 2008. "Forecast Selection by Conditional Predictive Ability Tests: An Application to the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 08-E-1, Bank of Japan.
  45. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Rafal Weron, 2015. "Short- and mid-term forecasting of baseload electricity prices in the UK: The impact of intra-day price relationships and market fundamentals," HSC Research Reports HSC/15/04, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  46. Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Economic Forecasting," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-56, March.
  47. Fernandez, Viviana, 2007. "Wavelet- and SVM-based forecasts: An analysis of the U.S. metal and materials manufacturing industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-2), pages 80-89.
  48. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Measuring Predictability: Theory and Macroeconomic Applications," Working Papers 98-16, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  49. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  50. Hendry, David F. & Mizon, Grayham E., 2014. "Unpredictability in economic analysis, econometric modeling and forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 186-195.
  51. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
  52. Troy D. Matheson & James Mitchell & Brian Silverstone, 2010. "Nowcasting and predicting data revisions using panel survey data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 313-330.
  53. Wang, Zijun & Bessler, David A., 2004. "Forecasting performance of multivariate time series models with full and reduced rank: an empirical examination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 683-695.
  54. Pesaran, M.H. & Pettenuzzo, D. & Timmermann, A., 2004. "‘Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0433, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  55. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Working Papers 2008-037, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  56. Kenneth Gillingham & William Nordhaus & David Anthoff & Geoffrey Blanford & Valentina Bosetti & Peter Christensen & Haewon McJeon & John Reilly & Paul Sztorc, 2015. "Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison," CESifo Working Paper Series 5538, CESifo Group Munich.
  57. Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira & Issler, João Victor, 2008. "A panel data approach to economic forecasting: the bias-corrected average forecast," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 668, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  58. Kolassa, Stephan, 2011. "Combining exponential smoothing forecasts using Akaike weights," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 238-251, April.
  59. G. Rünstler & K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2009. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 595-611.
  60. Bates, Brandon J. & Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2013. "Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 289-304.
  61. Österholm, Pär, 2006. "Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts," Working Paper Series 2006:30, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  62. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Learning, Structural Instability and Present Value Calculations," IEPR Working Papers 06.42, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
  63. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2016. "An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 779, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  64. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  65. Antoine Mandel & Amir Sani, 2016. "Learning Time-Varying Forecast Combinations," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16036r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Sep 2016.
  66. Kawakami, Kei, 2013. "Conditional forecast selection from many forecasts: An application to the Yen/Dollar exchange rate," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-18.
  67. Goodness C. Aye & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta & Mehmet Balcilar, 2013. "Forecasting the US Real Private Residential Fixed Investment Using Large Number of Predictors," Working Papers 201348, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  68. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
  69. repec:oxf:wpaper:wps/2000-23 is not listed on IDEAS
  70. Romulo A. Chumacero, 2004. "Forecasting Chilean Industrial Production and Sales with Automated Procedures," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 112, Society for Computational Economics.
  71. Susanne Emmer & Marie Kratz & Dirk Tasche, 2013. "What is the best risk measure in practice? A comparison of standard measures," Papers 1312.1645, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2015.
  72. Goodness C. Aye & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta & Mehmet Balcilar, 2016. "Forecasting US real private residential fixed investment using a large number of predictors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1557-1580, December.
  73. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2012. "Time-varying Combinations of Predictive Densities using Nonlinear Filtering," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-118/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  74. Wang, Cindy Shin-Huei & Bauwens, Luc & Hsiao, Cheng, 2013. "Forecasting a long memory process subject to structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 171-184.
  75. Fildes, Robert, 2006. "The forecasting journals and their contribution to forecasting research: Citation analysis and expert opinion," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 415-432.
  76. Martha A. Starr, 2011. "Contributions of economists to the housing-price bubble," Working Papers 2011-03, American University, Department of Economics.
  77. Suzanne Emmer & Marie Kratz & Dirk Tasche, 2013. "What Is the Best Risk Measure in Practice? A Comparison of Standard Measures," Working Papers hal-00921283, HAL.
  78. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2009. "Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 642-675, October.
  79. Rafal Weron, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/07, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  80. Qayyum, Abdul & Bilquees, Faiz, 2005. "P-Star Model: A Leading Indicator of Inflation for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 2058, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2005.
  81. repec:kap:iaecre:v:18:y:2012:i:3:p:247-258 is not listed on IDEAS
  82. Ray Barrell & Dr Ian Hurst, 1999. "An encompassing framework for evaluating simple monetary policy rules," NIESR Discussion Papers 156, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  83. repec:oxf:wpaper:2004-w14 is not listed on IDEAS
  84. Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Dylan van Wyk, 2010. "Financial Market Liberalization, Monetary Policy, and Housing Price Dynamics," Working papers 2010-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  85. Guillaume Chevillon, 2007. "Direct Multi-Step Estimation And Forecasting," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 746-785, 09.
  86. Dimitrios D. Thomakos & Prasad S. Bhattacharya, 2004. "Forecasting Industry-Level CPI and PPI Inflation: Does Exchange Rate Pass-Through Matter?," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 293, Econometric Society.
  87. Xiaohong Chen & Yanqin Fan, 2004. "Estimation and Model Selection of Semiparametric Copula-Based Multivariate Dynamic Models under Copula Misspecification," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0419, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics, revised Sep 2004.
  88. Deadman, Derek, 2003. "Forecasting residential burglary," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 567-578.
  89. Karapanagiotidis, Paul, 2012. "Improving Bayesian VAR density forecasts through autoregressive Wishart Stochastic Volatility," MPRA Paper 38885, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  90. Pesaran, M Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Timmermann, Allan G, 2009. "Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems," CEPR Discussion Papers 7139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  91. Carlos Medel & Marcela Urrutia, 2010. "Proyección Agregada y Desagregada del PIB Chileno con Procedimientos Automatizados de Series de Tiempo," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 577, Central Bank of Chile.
  92. Heinen, Florian & Willert, Juliane, 2011. "Monitoring a change in persistence of a long range dependent time series," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-479, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  93. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2012. "Improving forecasting in an emerging economy, South Africa: Changing trends, long run restrictions and disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 456-476.
  94. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2012. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?," Economics Series Working Papers 600, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  95. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John & Sebudde, Rachel, 2015. "Inflation forecasting models for Uganda: is mobile money relevant?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10739, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  96. Mark E. Wohar & David E. Rapach, 2007. "Forecasting the recent behavior of US business fixed investment spending: an analysis of competing models This is a significantly revised version of our previous paper, 'Forecasting US Business Fixed ," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 33-51.
  97. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2016. "Multistep forecasting in the presence of location shifts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 121-137.
  98. Allen, P. Geoffrey & Morzuch, Bernard J., 2006. "Twenty-five years of progress, problems, and conflicting evidence in econometric forecasting. What about the next 25 years?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 475-492.
  99. S Cook, 2011. "An historical perspective on the forecasting performance of the Treasury Model: Forecasting the growth in UK consumers' expenditure," Post-Print hal-00665455, HAL.
  100. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2014. "A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices With an Application to Crude Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 10162, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  101. Markus Jochmann & Gary Koop & Rodney W. Strachan, 2008. "Bayesian Forecasting using Stochastic Search Variable Selection in a VAR Subject to Breaks," Working Paper Series 19_08, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  102. Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "Small Sample Properties of Forecasts from Autoregressive Models under Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 990, CESifo Group Munich.
  103. Lavan Mahadeva and Paul Robinson, 2004. "Unit Root Testing in a Central Bank," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 22.
  104. Calista Cheung & Frédérick Demers, 2007. "Evaluating Forecasts from Factor Models for Canadian GDP Growth and Core Inflation," Staff Working Papers 07-8, Bank of Canada.
  105. David F. Hendry, 2004. "Unpredictability and the Foundations of Economic Forecasting," Economics Papers 2004-W15, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  106. Claveria, Oscar & Pons, Ernest & Ramos, Raul, 2007. "Business and consumer expectations and macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 47-69.
  107. Andersson, Andreas & Österholm, Pär, 2001. "The Impact of Demography on the Real Exchange Rate," Working Paper Series 2001:11, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  108. Clements Michael P. & Hendry David F., 2008. "Economic Forecasting in a Changing World," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-20, October.
  109. Guillermo Benavides, 2006. "Volatility Forecasts for the Mexican Peso - U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: An Empirical Analysis of Garch, Option Implied and Composite Forecast Models," Working Papers 2006-04, Banco de México.
  110. Hendry, David F., 2006. "Robustifying forecasts from equilibrium-correction systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 399-426.
  111. Chen, Xiaohong & Fan, Yanqin, 2006. "Estimation and model selection of semiparametric copula-based multivariate dynamic models under copula misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 125-154.
  112. Martin, G.M., 1998. "U.S. Deficit Sustainability: A New Approach Based on Multiple Endogenous Breaks," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/98, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  113. Neil R. Ericsson, 2016. "Economic Forecasting in Theory and Practice: An Interview with David F. Hendry," Working Papers 2016-012, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
  114. Neil Ericsson & Erica Reisman, 2012. "Evaluating a Global Vector Autoregression for Forecasting," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 18(3), pages 247-258, August.
  115. Hendry, David F. & Mizon, Grayham E., 2001. "Reformulating empirical macro-econometric modelling," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0104, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  116. Henk Kranendonk & Debby Lanser & P.H. Franses, 2007. "On the optimality of expert-adjusted forecasts," CPB Discussion Paper 92, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  117. Oscar Jorda, 2003. "Model-Free Impulse Responses," Working Papers 38, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  118. Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2002. "Error correction in DHSY," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 517, Stockholm School of Economics.
  119. Guillermo Benavides Perales, 2009. "Price volatility forecasts for agricultural commodities: an application of volatility models, option implieds and composite approaches forfutures prices of corn and wheat," Revista de Administración, Finanzas y Economía (Journal of Management, Finance and Economics), Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México, vol. 3(2), pages 40-59.
  120. Colino, Evelyn V. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2008. "How Much Can Outlook Forecasts be Improved? An Application to the U.S. Hog Market," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37620, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  121. Raffella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2005. "Detecting and Predicting Forecast Breakdowns," UCLA Economics Working Papers 845, UCLA Department of Economics.
  122. Fawcett, Nicholas & Koerber, Lena & Masolo, Riccardo & Waldron, Matthew, 2015. "Evaluating UK point and density forecasts from an estimated DSGE model: the role of off-model information over the financial crisis," Bank of England working papers 538, Bank of England.
  123. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2007. "Double Conditioned Potential Output," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 070701, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
  124. Ali Dib & Mohamed Gammoudi & Kevin Moran, 2006. "Forecasting Canadian Time Series with the New Keynesian Model," Staff Working Papers 06-4, Bank of Canada.
  125. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "How costly is it to ignore breaks when forecasting the direction of a time series?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 411-425.
  126. Raunig, Burkhard, 2006. "The longer-horizon predictability of German stock market volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 363-372.
  127. Groen, Jan J J & Kapetanios, George & Price, Simon, 2009. "Multivariate methods for monitoring structural change," Bank of England working papers 369, Bank of England.
  128. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Timmermann, Allan, 2011. "Variable selection, estimation and inference for multi-period forecasting problems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 173-187, September.
  129. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel & Seitz, Franz, 2016. "What does money and credit tell us about real activity in the United States?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 328-347.
  130. Rocha, Jordano Vieira & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2015. "Forecast comparison with nonlinear methods for Brazilian industrial production," Textos para discussão 397, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  131. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911, December.
  132. Kapetanios, George & Labhard, Vincent & Price, Simon, 2008. "Forecast combination and the Bank of England's suite of statistical forecasting models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 772-792, July.
  133. Alexandros SARRIS, 2014. "Options for Developing Countries to Deal with Global Food Commodity Market Volatility," Working Papers P98, FERDI.
  134. Sánchez, Ismael, 2008. "Adaptive combination of forecasts with application to wind energy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 679-693.
  135. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2013. "Tracking world trade and GDP in real time," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 920, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  136. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Marcin Kolasa & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk & Magdalena Tarnicka, 2009. "The new macroeconometric model of the Polish economy," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 62, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  137. David Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2016. "Evaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observations," Economics Series Working Papers 784, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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  288. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Kalotychou, Elena, 2006. "Early warning systems for sovereign debt crises: The role of heterogeneity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 1420-1441, November.
  289. Jan Dehn, 2000. "Commodity price uncertainty in developing countries," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  290. Hansson, Jesper & Jansson, Per & Lof, Marten, 2005. "Business survey data: Do they help in forecasting GDP growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 377-389.
  291. Guidolin, Massimo & Hyde, Stuart & McMillan, David & Ono, Sadayuki, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: When and where is it exploitable?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 373-399.
  292. Anna Piretti & Charles St-Arnaud, 2006. "Launching the NEUQ: The New European Union Quarterly Model, A Small Model of the Euro Area and U.K. Economies," Staff Working Papers 06-22, Bank of Canada.
  293. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2010. "Does aggregating forecasts by CPI component improve inflation forecast accuracy in South Africa?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7895, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  294. Ahumada, Hildegart A. & Garegnani, Maria Lorena, 2012. "Forecasting a monetary aggregate under instability: Argentina after 2001," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 412-427.
  295. Claus Brand & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Franz Seitz, 2003. "Narrow Money and the Business Cycle: Theoretical aspects and euro area evdence," Macroeconomics 0303012, EconWPA.
  296. Carvalho, Alexandre X. & Tanner, Martin A., 2007. "Modelling nonlinear count time series with local mixtures of Poisson autoregressions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(11), pages 5266-5294, July.
  297. Seitz, Franz & Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel, 2015. "The Information Content Of Money And Credit For US Activity," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113066, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  298. Ahumada, H. & Cornejo, M., 2016. "Forecasting food prices: The case of corn, soybeans and wheat," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 838-848.
  299. Chen Zhuo & Yang Yuhong, 2007. "Time Series Models for Forecasting: Testing or Combining?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 56-90, March.
  300. Angelos Kanas, 2003. "Non-linear forecasts of stock returns," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 299-315.
  301. Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2006. "Formalizing judgemental adjustment of model-based forecasts," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2006-19, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  302. Cogley, Timothy & De Paoli, Bianca & Matthes, Christian & Nikolov, Kalin & Yates, Tony, 2011. "A Bayesian approach to optimal monetary policy with parameter and model uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2186-2212.
  303. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2005. "Macro variables and international stock return predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 137-166.
  304. Brandt, Patrick T. & Freeman, John R. & Schrodt, Philip A., 2014. "Evaluating forecasts of political conflict dynamics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 944-962.
  305. Piotr Białowolski, 2011. "Forecasting inflation with consumer survey data – application of multi-group confirmatory factor analysis to elimination of the general sentiment factor," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 100, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  306. Thomas A. Knetsch, 2007. "Forecasting the price of crude oil via convenience yield predictions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 527-549.
  307. Ásgeir Daníelsson, 2008. "Accuracy in forecasting macroeconomic variables in Iceland," Economics wp39, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
  308. Ard Reijer, 2013. "Forecasting Dutch GDP and inflation using alternative factor model specifications based on large and small datasets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 435-453, April.
  309. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-465 is not listed on IDEAS
  310. Rómulo Chumacero, 2010. "On the Importance of the Arrival of New Information," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 37(2 Year 20), pages 207-215, December.
  311. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesus, 2000. "Forecasting European GDP Using Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive Models. A Warning," Economics Series 79, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  312. Banerjee, Anindya & Urga, Giovanni, 2005. "Modelling structural breaks, long memory and stock market volatility: an overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 1-34.
  313. David G. McMillan, 2009. "Non-linear interest rate dynamics and forecasting: evidence for US and Australian interest rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 139-155.
  314. Rapach, David E. & Strauss, Jack K., 2012. "Forecasting US state-level employment growth: An amalgamation approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 315-327.
  315. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Macromodel of the Romanian market economy (version 2005)," MPRA Paper 35749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  316. Gunter, Ulrich & Önder, Irem, 2016. "Forecasting city arrivals with Google Analytics," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 199-212.
  317. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2010. "Forecasting from Mis-specified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 484, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  318. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Kocięcki, Andrzej & Rubaszek, Michał, 2015. "Bayesian forecasting of real exchange rates with a Dornbusch prior," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 53-60.
  319. Marc Wildi & Bernd Schips, 2004. "Signal Extraction: How (In)efficient are Model-Based Approaches? An Empirical Study Based on TRAMO/SEATS and Census X-12-ARIMA," KOF Working papers 04-96, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  320. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 800, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  321. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2015. "Detecting Location Shifts during Model Selection by Step-Indicator Saturation," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(2), pages 240-240, April.
  322. repec:hal:journl:hal-00921283 is not listed on IDEAS
  323. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the Teaching of Econometrics," Economics Series Working Papers 785, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  324. David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik & Felix Pretis, 2013. "Step-indicator Saturation," Economics Series Working Papers 658, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  325. Massimo Guidolin, 2013. "Markov switching models in asset pricing research," Chapters, in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 1, pages 3-44 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  326. Massimo Guidolin, 2011. "Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance," Working Papers 415, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  327. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2013. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 305-319.
  328. Romulo A. Chumacero, 2004. "Forecasting Chilean Industrial Production with Automated Procedures," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 177, Econometric Society.
  329. repec:uea:aepppr:2012_56 is not listed on IDEAS
  330. Jiang, Yu & Song, Zhe & Kusiak, Andrew, 2013. "Very short-term wind speed forecasting with Bayesian structural break model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 637-647.
  331. Orth, Walter, 2013. "Multi-period credit default prediction with time-varying covariates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 214-222.
  332. West, Carol T., 2003. "The Status of Evaluating Accuracy of Regional Forecasts," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 33(1), pages 85-103.
  333. repec:oxf:wpaper:wps/2008-27 is not listed on IDEAS
  334. Frédérique Fève & Jean-Pierre Florens & Leticia Veruete-McKay & Frank Rodriguez & Soterios Steri & Frank Rodriguez, 2012. "Uncertainty and Projections of the Demand for Mail," Chapters, in: Multi-Modal Competition and the Future of Mail, chapter 6 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  335. Surette, Ray & Applegate, Brandon & McCarthy, Bernard & Jablonski, Patrick, 2006. "Self-destructing prophecies: Long-term forecasting of municipal correctional bed need," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 57-72.
  336. Lennard van Gelder & Ad Stokman, 2006. "Regime transplants in GDP growth forecasting: A recipe for better predictions?," DNB Working Papers 106, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  337. Maurício Yoshinori Une & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2005. "Fear of disruption: a model of Markov-switching regimes for the Brazilian country risk conditional volatility," Econometrics 0509005, EconWPA.
  338. Jumah, Adusei & Kunst, Robert M., 1999. "The Effects of Dollar/Sterling Exchange Rate Volatility on Futures Markets for Coffee and Cocoa," Economics Series 73, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  339. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Monetary Policy Analysis in a Closed Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  340. David Hendry & Maozu Lu & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Model Identification and Non-unique Structure," Economics Papers 2002-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  341. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  342. William Miles, 2015. "Bubbles, Busts and Breaks in UK Housing," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 18(4), pages 455-471.
  343. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:73:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  344. Pao, H.T., 2009. "Forecasting energy consumption in Taiwan using hybrid nonlinear models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1438-1446.
  345. Barrell, R. & Pina, A.M., 2000. "How Important are Automatic Stabilizers in Europe? A Stochastic Simulation Assessment," Economics Working Papers eco2000/2, European University Institute.
  346. Knüppel, Malte, 2009. "Efficient estimation of forecast uncertainty based on recent forecast errors," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,28, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  347. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel van der Wel, 0000. "Dynamic Factor Models with Smooth Loadings for Analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-041/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 17 Sep 2010.
  348. Alexandros SARRIS, 2014. "Options for Developing Countries to Deal with Global Food Commodity Market Volatility," Working Papers P98, FERDI.
  349. repec:oxf:wpaper:2013-w04 is not listed on IDEAS
  350. Becker, Ralf & Clements, Adam E. & White, Scott I., 2006. "On the informational efficiency of S&P500 implied volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 139-153, August.
  351. Gupta, Rangan & Modise, Mampho P., 2012. "South African stock return predictability in the context data mining: The role of financial variables and international stock returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 908-916.
  352. Camille LOGEAY & Sven SCHREIBER, "undated". "Evaluating the Effectiveness of the French Work-Sharing Reform," EcoMod2004 330600093, EcoMod.
  353. Flouris, Triant & Walker, Thomas, 2005. "Financial Comparisons Across Different Business Models in the Canadian Airline Industry," 46th Annual Transportation Research Forum, Washington, D.C., March 6-8, 2005 208157, Transportation Research Forum.
  354. Qin, Ting & Enders, Walter, 2008. "In-sample and out-of-sample properties of linear and nonlinear Taylor rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 428-443, March.
  355. Neil R. Ericsson, 2000. "Predictable uncertainty in economic forecasting," International Finance Discussion Papers 695, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  356. Naik, Prasad A., 2015. "Marketing Dynamics: A Primer on Estimation and Control," Foundations and Trends(R) in Marketing, now publishers, vol. 9(3), pages 175-266, December.
  357. Francis Vitek, 2005. "An Unobserved Components Model of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in a Closed Economy," Macroeconomics 0512018, EconWPA, revised 04 Feb 2006.
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