IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nuf/econwp/0210.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Model Identification and Non-unique Structure

Author

Listed:

Abstract

Identification is an essential attribute of any model's parameters, so we consider its three aspects of 'uniqueness', 'correspondence to reality' and 'interpretability'. Observationally-equivalent over-identified models can co-exist, and are mutually encompassing in the population; correctly-identified models need not correspond to the underlying structure; and may be wrongly interpreted. That a given model is over-identified with all over-identifying restrictions valid (even asymptotically) is insufficient to demonstrate that it is a unique representation. Moreover, structre (as invariance under extended information) need not be identifiable. We consider the role of structural breaks to discriminate between such representations.

Suggested Citation

  • David Hendry & Maozu Lu & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Model Identification and Non-unique Structure," Economics Papers 2002-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0210
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/papers/2002/w10/DEISTGEM.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hendry, David F, 1995. "Econometrics and Business Cycle Empirics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(433), pages 1622-1636, November.
    2. Deistler, Manfred & Seifert, Hans-Gunther, 1978. "Identifiability and Consistent Estimability in Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(4), pages 969-980, July.
    3. Bowden, Roger J, 1973. "The Theory of Parametric Identification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 1069-1074, November.
    4. White,Halbert, 1996. "Estimation, Inference and Specification Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521574464, January.
    5. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1990. "Evaluating Dynamic Econometric Models By Encompassing The Var," Economics Series Working Papers 99102, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Hatanaka, Michio, 1975. "On the Global Identification of the Dynamic Simultaneous Equations Model with Stationary Disturbances," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(3), pages 545-554, October.
    7. Faust, Jon & Whiteman, Charles H., 1997. "General-to-specific procedures for fitting a data-admissible, theory-inspired, congruent, parsimonious, encompassing, weakly-exogenous, identified, structural model to the DGP: A translation and criti," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 121-161, December.
    8. Rothenberg, Thomas J, 1971. "Identification in Parametric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(3), pages 577-591, May.
    9. Hendry,David F. & Morgan,Mary S., 1997. "The Foundations of Econometric Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521588706.
    10. Bontemps, Christophe & Mizon, Grayham E., 2001. "Congruence and encompassing," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0107, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    11. Aldrich, John, 1994. "Haavelmo's Identification Theory," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 198-219, March.
    12. Madansky, Albert, 1976. "Foundations of Econometrics," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780720436075 edited by Bliss, C. J. & Intriligator, M. D..
    13. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423.
    14. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July.
    15. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    16. Deistler, Manfred, 1976. "The Identifiability of Linear Econometric Models with Autocorrelated Errors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 17(1), pages 26-46, February.
    17. Spanos,Aris, 1986. "Statistical Foundations of Econometric Modelling," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521269124.
    18. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2002. "Modelling methodology and forecast failure," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 319-344, June.
    19. E. J. Working, 1927. "What Do Statistical "Demand Curves" Show?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 41(2), pages 212-235.
    20. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:1:p:198-219 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2001. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 75-120.
    22. Bontemps, Christophe & Mizon, Grayham E., 2001. "Congruence and encompassing," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 107, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    23. Hendry, David F., 2000. "On detectable and non-detectable structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 45-65, July.
    24. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Richiardi, 2003. "The Promises and Perils of Agent-Based Computational Economics," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 29, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    2. Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "Estimating structural macroeconomic shocks through long-run recursive restrictions on vector autoregressive models: the problem of identification," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 229-244.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Policy Regime Shifts," Economics Papers 2002-W12, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    3. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    4. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    5. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    6. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    7. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2007. "Forecasting UK Inflation: the Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation," Economics Series Working Papers 309, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Marcellino, M. & Mizon, G.E., 2001. "Small system modelling of real wages, inflation, unemployment and output per capita in Italy 1970-1994," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0106, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    9. Øyvind Eitrheim & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2002. "Progress from forecast failure -- the Norwegian consumption function," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 40-64, June.
    10. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Guest Editors’ Introduction: Information in Economic Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 713-753, December.
    11. Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, 2000. "Wages, Prices, Productivity, Inflation and Unemployment in Italy 1970-1994," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0911, Econometric Society.
    12. David Hendry, 2000. "A General Forecast-error Taxonomy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0608, Econometric Society.
    13. Castle, Jennifer L. & Fawcett, Nicholas W.P. & Hendry, David F., 2010. "Forecasting with equilibrium-correction models during structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 25-36, September.
    14. Hendry, David F. & Johansen, Søren, 2015. "Model Discovery And Trygve Haavelmo’S Legacy," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(1), pages 93-114, February.
    15. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Irfan Civcir, 2003. "The Monetary Models of the Turkish Lira/U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Long-run Relationships, Short-run Dynamics, and Forecasting," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 43-63, January.
    17. George Halkos & Kyriaki Tsilika, 2015. "Programming Identification Criteria in Simultaneous Equation Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 46(1), pages 157-170, June.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0210. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Maxine Collett (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/economics/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.