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Forecasting food prices: The case of corn, soybeans and wheat

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  • Ahumada, H.
  • Cornejo, M.

Abstract

Given the high correlations observed among food prices, we analyse whether the forecasting accuracies of individual food price models can be improved by considering their cross-dependence. We focus on three strongly correlated food prices: corn, soybeans and wheat. We analyse an unstable forecasting period (2008–2014) and apply robust approaches and recursive schemes. Our results indicate forecast improvements from using models that include price interactions.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahumada, H. & Cornejo, M., 2016. "Forecasting food prices: The case of corn, soybeans and wheat," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 838-848.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:32:y:2016:i:3:p:838-848
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.01.002
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    7. Lorenzo Menculini & Andrea Marini & Massimiliano Proietti & Alberto Garinei & Alessio Bozza & Cecilia Moretti & Marcello Marconi, 2021. "Comparing Prophet and Deep Learning to ARIMA in Forecasting Wholesale Food Prices," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-19, September.
    8. Rotem Zelingher & David Makowski, 2022. "Forecasting Global Maize Prices From Regional Productions [Prévision des prix mondiaux du maïs à partir des productions régionales]," Post-Print hal-03764942, HAL.
    9. Su, Yuandong & Liang, Chao & Zhang, Li & Zeng, Qing, 2022. "Uncover the response of the U.S grain commodity market on El Niño–Southern Oscillation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 98-112.
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    11. Hedi Ben Haddad & Imed Mezghani & Abdessalem Gouider, 2021. "The Dynamic Spillover Effects of Macroeconomic and Financial Uncertainty on Commodity Markets Uncertainties," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-22, June.
    12. Li, Jianping & Li, Guowen & Liu, Mingxi & Zhu, Xiaoqian & Wei, Lu, 2022. "A novel text-based framework for forecasting agricultural futures using massive online news headlines," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 35-50.
    13. Mei, Dexiang & Xie, Yutang, 2022. "U.S. grain commodity futures price volatility: Does trade policy uncertainty matter?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    14. Dinggao Liu & Zhenpeng Tang & Yi Cai, 2022. "A Hybrid Model for China’s Soybean Spot Price Prediction by Integrating CEEMDAN with Fuzzy Entropy Clustering and CNN-GRU-Attention," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-22, November.
    15. Andree,Bo Pieter Johannes, 2021. "Estimating Food Price Inflation from Partial Surveys," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9886, The World Bank.
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    17. Shahnoushi, Naser & Sayed, Saghaian & Hezareh, Reza & Tirgari Seraji, Mohammad, 2017. "Investigation of Relationship Between World Food Prices and Energy Price: A Panel SUR Approach," 2017 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2017, Mobile, Alabama 252782, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.

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