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Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Stefan Gerlach & Matthew S. Yiu, 2004. "A Dynamic Factor Model for Current-Quarter Estimates of Economic Activity in Hong Kong," Working Papers 162004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  2. Mora, Ricardo & Siotis, Georges, 2005. "External factors in emerging market recoveries: An empirical investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 683-702, April.
  3. Nodari, Gabriela, 2014. "Financial regulation policy uncertainty and credit spreads in the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 122-132.
  4. Monteforte, Libero, 2007. "Aggregation bias in macro models: Does it matter for the euro area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 236-261, March.
  5. Christian Hutter & Enzo Weber, 2015. "Constructing a new leading indicator for unemployment from a survey among German employment agencies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(33), pages 3540-3558, July.
  6. Clements, Michael P., 2010. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 536-549, May.
  7. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2004. "The generalized dynamic factor model consistency and rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 231-255, April.
  8. Jooste, Charl & Liu, Guangling (Dave) & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2013. "Analysing the effects of fiscal policy shocks in the South African economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 215-224.
  9. Quah, Danny, 1994. "One business cycle and one trend from (many,) many disaggregates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 605-614, April.
  10. Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2005. "Financial System Risk and Flight to Quality," NBER Working Papers 11834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. DAVID E. ALLEN & MICHAEL McALEER & ROBERT J. POWELL & ABHAY K. SINGH, 2018. "Non-Parametric Multiple Change Point Analysis Of The Global Financial Crisis," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(02), pages 1-23, June.
  12. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 2003. "Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 101-127, January.
  13. Chihwa Kao & Lorenzo Trapani & Giovanni Urga, 2012. "Asymptotics for Panel Models with Common Shocks," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 390-439.
  14. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  15. Dury, Karen & Pina, Alvaro M., 2003. "Fiscal policy in EMU: simulating the operation of the Stability Pact," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 179-206, February.
  16. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
  17. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
  18. Eric Hillebrand & Huiyu Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee & Canlin Li, 2018. "Using the Entire Yield Curve in Forecasting Output and Inflation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-27, August.
  19. Stekler, H.O., 2007. "The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 237-248.
  20. Altavilla, Carlo & Boucinha, Miguel & Peydró, José-Luis, 2018. "Monetary policy and bank profitability in a low interest rate environment," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 33(96), pages 531-586.
  21. Marek Jarociński & Bartosz Maćkowiak, 2017. "Granger Causal Priority and Choice of Variables in Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 319-329, May.
  22. Guney, Selin, 2015. "An evaluation of price forecasts of the cattle market under structural changes," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205109, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  23. Jensen, Mark J. & Liu, Ming, 2006. "Do long swings in the business cycle lead to strong persistence in output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 597-611, April.
  24. Tobias Adrian & Arturo Estrella & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "Risk‐taking channel of monetary policy," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 48(3), pages 725-738, September.
  25. repec:wyi:journl:002127 is not listed on IDEAS
  26. Athanasoulis, S. & Shiller, R.J., 1995. "World Income Components: Measuring and Exploting International Risk Sharing Opportunities," Papers 725, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  27. Clements, Michael P., 2010. "Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?," Economic Research Papers 270770, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  28. Joseph H. Haimowitz, 1998. "The longevity of expansions," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 83(Q IV), pages 13-34.
  29. Andrew T. Foerster & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2011. "Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-38.
  30. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.
  31. Ubilava, David, 2019. "On The Relationship Between Financial Instability And Economic Performance: Stressing The Business Of Nonlinear Modeling," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 80-100, January.
  32. Rose Cunningham & Ilan Kolet, 2007. "Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada," Staff Working Papers 07-2, Bank of Canada.
  33. D. K. Malhotra & Vivek Bhargava & Mukesh Chaudhry, 2005. "Determinants of Treasury-LIBOR Swap Spreads," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(04), pages 687-705.
  34. Ricardo Reis & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 128-157, July.
  35. Yongming Huang & Muhammed Ashiq Villanthenkodath & Mohammad Haseeb, 2023. "The nexus between eco‐friendly technology and environmental degradation in India: Does the N or inverted N‐shape load capacity curve(LCC) hypothesis hold?," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2), pages 276-297, May.
  36. Pauwels, Laurent & Vasnev, Andrey, 2014. "Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 138-148.
  37. Ghassen El Montasser & Rangan Gupta & Jooste Charl & Stephen M. Miller, 2020. "The Time-series Linkages between US Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices," Public Finance Review, , vol. 48(3), pages 303-339, May.
  38. Christopher L. Gilbert & Duo Qin, 2007. "Representation in Econometrics: A Historical Perspective," Working Papers 583, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  39. Clements, Michael P., 2014. "Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 99-117.
  40. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
  41. Harrison, Sharon G. & Weder, Mark, 2002. "Did sunspot cause the Great Depression?," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,35, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  42. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolay V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2017. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 53-73, May.
  43. Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, "undated". "Evaluating Density Forecasts," CARESS Working Papres 97-18, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
  44. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2022. "ROC approach to forecasting recessions using daily yield spreads," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 191-203, October.
  45. Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena & Diana Ricciulli-Marín & Jaime Bonet-Morón & Paula Barrios, 2021. "Reglas fiscales subnacionales en Colombia: desde su concepción hasta los resultados frente al COVID-19," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 19126, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
  46. Karlsson, Sune, 2013. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregression," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 791-897, Elsevier.
  47. Gregory R. Duffee & Stephen D. Prowse, "undated". "What's Good for GM...? Using Auto Industry Stock Returns to Forecast Business Cycles and Test the Q-Theory of Investment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 04 Dec 2019.
  48. Barrera, Carlos, 2009. "Ciclos sectoriales de los negocios en el Perú e indicadores anticipados para el crecimiento del PBI no primario," Working Papers 2009-013, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  49. Ottaviani, Marco & Sorensen, Peter Norman, 2006. "The strategy of professional forecasting," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 441-466, August.
  50. Tsai, Bi-Huei & Chang, Chih-Jen & Chang, Chun-Hsien, 2016. "Elucidating the consumption and CO2 emissions of fossil fuels and low-carbon energy in the United States using Lotka–Volterra models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 416-424.
  51. Edward N. Gamber, 1996. "The policy content of the yield curve slope," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), pages 163-179.
  52. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2015. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 739-756.
  53. Fabio Fornari & Antonio Mele, 2013. "Financial Volatility and Economic Activity," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 155-198, December.
  54. Lasse Bork, 2009. "Estimating US Monetary Policy Shocks Using a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression: An EM Algorithm Approach," CREATES Research Papers 2009-11, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  55. J. Polzehl & V. Spokoiny & C. Starica, 2004. "When did the 2001 recession really start?," Econometrics 0411017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  56. Arvid Raknerud & Terje Skjerpen & Anders Rygh Swensen, 2010. "Forecasting key macroeconomic variables from a large number of predictors: a state space approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 367-387.
  57. Rodrigo Mulero & Alfredo García-Hiernaux, 2021. "Forecasting Spanish unemployment with Google Trends and dimension reduction techniques," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 329-349, September.
  58. Heather Anderson & Giovanni Caggiano & Farshid Vahid & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Sectoral Employment Dynamics in Australia and the COVID‐19 Pandemic," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 53(3), pages 402-414, September.
  59. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2005. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 830-840, September.
  60. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1999. "Are Macroeconomic Forecasts Informative? Cointegration Evidence from the ASA-NBER Surveys," NBER Working Papers 6926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  61. Massimiliano Marcellino & George Kapetanios, 2006. "The Role of Search Frictions and Bargaining for Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 305, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  62. Michael DeStefano, 2004. "Stock Returns and the Business Cycle," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 527-547, November.
  63. T.P.Koirala, Ph.D., 2013. "Time-Varying Parameters of Inflation Model in Nepal: State Space Modeling," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 25(2), pages 66-77, October.
  64. Oguzhan Cepni & Hardik A. Marfatia & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "The Time-Varying Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the Comovement of Regional Housing Prices of the United Kingdom," Working Papers 202168, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  65. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Large Vector Autoregressions with Asymmetric Priors," Working Papers 759, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  66. Clements, Michael P & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2003. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 196-211, January.
  67. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Diffusion Indexes," NBER Working Papers 6702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  68. Gabriele Fiorentini & Alessandro Galesi & Enrique Sentana, 2016. "Fast ML Estimation of Dynamic Bifactor Models: An Application to European Inflation," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 215-282, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  69. Mark Weder, 2006. "A heliocentric journey into Germany's Great Depression," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 288-316, April.
  70. Franses Philip Hans & Paap Richard, 2013. "Common large innovations across nonlinear time series," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 251-263, May.
  71. Siklos, Pierre L, 2000. "Inflation Targets and the Yield Curve: New Zealand and Australia versus the US," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 15-32, February.
  72. Tomasz Wozniak, 2016. "Rare Events and Risk Perception: Evidence from Fukushima Accident," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 2021, The University of Melbourne.
  73. Granger, Clive W.J. & Hyung, Namwon, 2006. "Introduction to m-m processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 143-164, January.
  74. Kenichiro McAlinn & Knut Are Aastveit & Jouchi Nakajima & Mike West, 2020. "Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 115(531), pages 1092-1110, July.
  75. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 375-390, July.
  76. Victor Zarnowitz, 1997. "Business Cycles Observed and Assessed: Why and How They Matter," NBER Working Papers 6230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  77. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2004. "Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 327-359, June.
  78. Nadal De Simone, Francisco & Clarke, Sean, 2007. "Asymmetry in business fluctuations: International evidence on Friedman's plucking model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 64-85, February.
  79. Arvid Raknerud, 2001. "A State Space Approach for Estimating VAR Models for Panel Data with Latent Dynamic Components," Discussion Papers 295, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  80. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 983-1022, July.
  81. Carriero, Andrea & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007. "A comparison of methods for the construction of composite coincident and leading indexes for the UK," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 219-236.
  82. Thomas M. FULLERTON & Macie Z. SUBIA, 2017. "Metropolitan Business Cycle Analysis for Lubbock," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 33-52, March.
  83. Korajczyk, Robert A. & Levy, Amnon, 2003. "Capital structure choice: macroeconomic conditions and financial constraints," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 75-109, April.
  84. Chris Bloor & Troy Matheson, 2010. "Analysing shock transmission in a data-rich environment: a large BVAR for New Zealand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 537-558, October.
  85. Lunde A. & Timmermann A., 2004. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 253-273, July.
  86. Chris Birchenhall & Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2001. "Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 179-195, May.
  87. AMMOURI, Bilel & TOUMI, Hassen & Zitouna, Habib, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation in Tunisia Using Dynamic Factors Model," MPRA Paper 65514, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  88. Vincent Bodart & Bertrand Candelon, 2000. "Appréhender la conjoncture à l'aide de la méthode de Stock-Watson : une application à l'économie belge," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 146(5), pages 141-153.
  89. Masaki Katsuura & Allan P. Layton, 1999. "Is the 1990’s US Expansion Similar to the 1960’s?," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 062, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
  90. Shushanik Papanyan, 2015. "Digitization and Productivity: Measuring Cycles of Technological Progress," Working Papers 15/33, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  91. Berg Tim Oliver, 2017. "Forecast accuracy of a BVAR under alternative specifications of the zero lower bound," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 1-29, April.
  92. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2014. "Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-04, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  93. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2007. "Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1406-1435, July.
  94. Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon, 2002. "A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 340-360, May.
  95. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2005. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1927-1950, November.
  96. repec:ptu:bdpart:r201703 is not listed on IDEAS
  97. Gallegati, Marco & Ramsey, James B., 2014. "The forward looking information content of equity and bond markets for aggregate investments," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-24.
  98. Fintzen, David & Stekler, H. O., 1999. "Why did forecasters fail to predict the 1990 recession?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 309-323, July.
  99. Qi, Min, 2001. "Predicting US recessions with leading indicators via neural network models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 383-401.
  100. Dumas, Bernard & Harvey, Campbell R. & Ruiz, Pierre, 2003. "Are correlations of stock returns justified by subsequent changes in national outputs?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 777-811, November.
  101. Fushang Liu & Kajal Lahiri, 2006. "Modelling multi-period inflation uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1199-1219.
  102. Thomas C. Melzer, 1997. "To conclude: keep inflation low and, in principle, eliminate it," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 3-7.
  103. repec:syb:wpbsba:05/2013 is not listed on IDEAS
  104. Todd E. Clark, 2006. "Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 563-587, July.
  105. Park, Cyn-Young & Majuca, Ruperto & Yap, Josef, 2010. "The 2008 Financial Crisis and Potential Output in Asia: Impact and Policy Implications," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 45, Asian Development Bank.
  106. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Momferatou, Daphne & Onorante, Luca, 2014. "Short-term inflation projections: A Bayesian vector autoregressive approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 635-644.
  107. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February.
  108. Eryilmaz, Derya & Homans, Frances, 2013. "Uncertainty in Renewable Energy Policy: How do Renewable Energy Credit markets and Production Tax Credits affect decisions to invest in renewable energy?," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150018, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  109. Dimitrios Papastamos & Fotis Mouzakis & Simon Stevenson, 2014. "Rationality and Momentum in Real Estate Investment Forecasts," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2014-07, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  110. Krzysztof Beck & Piotr Stanek, 2019. "Globalization or Regionalization of Stock Markets? the Case of Central and Eastern European Countries," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(4), pages 317-330, July.
  111. Duo Qin, 2010. "Econometric Studies of Business Cycles in the History of Econometrics," Working Papers 669, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  112. Lopez, Jose A, 2001. "Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Volatility Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 87-109, March.
  113. Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia & Christian Pierdzioch & Afees A. Salisu, 2022. "Machine Learning Predictions of Housing Market Synchronization across US States: The Role of Uncertainty," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 523-545, May.
  114. Martínez-García Enrique, 2018. "Modeling time-variation over the business cycle (1960–2017): an international perspective," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(5), pages 1-25, December.
  115. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Erik Klär, 2007. "Dem Konjunkturzyklus auf der Spur: zur Prognose konjunktureller Wendepunkte in Deutschland," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(4), pages 8-20.
  116. Apergis, Nicholas, 2015. "Financial portfolio choice: Do business cycle regimes matter? Panel evidence from international household surveys," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 14-27.
  117. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Large Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility and Flexible Priors," Working Papers (Old Series) 1617, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  118. Lahiri, Kajal & Sheng, Xuguang, 2010. "Learning and heterogeneity in GDP and inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 265-292, April.
  119. Tobias Hartl & Roland Jucknewitz, 2022. "Approximate state space modelling of unobserved fractional components," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 75-98, January.
  120. Kwark, Noh-Sun, 2002. "Default risks, interest rate spreads, and business cycles: Explaining the interest rate spread as a leading indicator," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 271-302, February.
  121. Filardo, Andrew J. & Gordon, Stephen F., 1998. "Business cycle durations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 99-123, July.
  122. Declan Curran & Michael Funke, 2006. "Taking the Temperature - Forecasting GDP Growth for Mainland China," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20606, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  123. Terence Mills, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetry and duration dependence: An international perspective," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 713-724.
  124. Grace Lee, 2011. "Aggregate shocks decomposition for eight East Asian countries," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 215-232.
  125. Kajal Lahiri & J. George Wang, 2007. "The value of probability forecasts as predictors of cyclical downturns," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 11-14.
  126. Gamber, Edward N. & Hakes, David R., 2005. "Is monetary policy important for forecasting real growth and inflation?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 177-187, March.
  127. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2011. "Financial Cycles: What? How? When?," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 303-344.
  128. Sims, Christopher A., 2000. "Using a likelihood perspective to sharpen econometric discourse: Three examples," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 443-462, April.
  129. Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2002. "Factor Models in Large Cross-Sections of Time Series," CEPR Discussion Papers 3285, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  130. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luis Fernando Melo, 2001. "Expansions and Contractions in Some Latin American Countries: A view Throught Non-Linear Models," Borradores de Economia 186, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  131. Neusser, Klaus, 2001. "A Multisectoral Log-Linear Model of Economic Growth with Marshallian Externalities," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 537-564, October.
  132. Chatterjee, Arpita, 2016. "Globalization and monetary policy comovement: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 181-202.
  133. George Athanasopoulos & Heather M. Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2007. "Nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of output in G-7 countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 63-87.
  134. Khurshid Kiani, 2011. "Fluctuations in Economic and Activity and Stabilization Policies in the CIS," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 193-220, February.
  135. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Takashi Onodera, 2001. "A New Composite Index of Coincident Economic Indicators in Japan: How can we improve the forecast performance? ," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-101, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  136. Pooyan Amir Ahmadi & Harald Uhlig, 2015. "Sign Restrictions in Bayesian FaVARs with an Application to Monetary Policy Shocks," NBER Working Papers 21738, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  137. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2005. "Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 1-23, April.
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