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Can univariate models forecast turning points in seasonal economic time series?

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  • Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio
  • Queralt, Ricardo A.

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  • Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Queralt, Ricardo A., 1998. "Can univariate models forecast turning points in seasonal economic time series?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 433-446, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:14:y:1998:i:4:p:433-446
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1995. "Lag Order and Critical Values of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 277-280, July.
    2. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:4:p:933-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Meese, R. & Rogoff, K., 1988. "Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Ralation Over The Modern Floating-Rate Period," Working papers 368, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    4. Andrews, Rick L, 1994. "Forecasting Performance of Structural Time Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(1), pages 129-133, January.
    5. Eduardo Morales & Antoni Espasa & María Luisa Rojo, 1992. "Univariate methods for the analysis of the industrial sector in Spain," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 16(1), pages 127-149, January.
    6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number stoc93-1, October.
    7. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W. (ed.), 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226774886.
    8. Harvey, A C & Todd, P H J, 1983. "Forecasting Economic Time Series with Structural and Box-Jenkins Models: A Case Study," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(4), pages 299-307, October.
    9. Harvey, A C & Todd, P H J, 1983. "Forecasting Economic Time Series with Structural and Box-Jenkins Models: A Case Study: Response," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(4), pages 313-315, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Bujosa-Brun, Marcos, 2000. "Forecasting OECD industrial turning points using unobserved components models with business survey data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 207-227.
    2. repec:jss:jstsof:33:i05 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Antonio García‐ferrer & Aránzazu De Juan & Pilar Poncela, 2007. "The relationship between road traffic accidents and real economic activity in spain: common cycles and health issues," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 603-626, June.
    4. Candy Mei Fung Tang & Nada Kulendran, 2011. "A Composite Leading Indicator for the Hotel Industry," Tourism Economics, , vol. 17(3), pages 549-563, June.
    5. Nada Kulendran & Kevin K.F. Wong, 2009. "Predicting Quarterly Hong Kong Tourism Demand Growth Rates, Directional Changes and Turning Points with Composite Leading Indicators," Tourism Economics, , vol. 15(2), pages 307-322, June.
    6. Cano Guervós, R. & Chica Olmo, J. & Hermoso Gutiérrez, J.A., 1999. "Metodología para la zonificación de una ciudad," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 13, pages 23-49, Diciembre.
    7. Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Queralt, Ricardo & Blazquez, Cristina, 2001. "A growth cycle characterisation and forecasting of the Spanish economy: 1970-1998," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 517-532.

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