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The relationship between road traffic accidents and real economic activity in Spain: common cycles and health issues

  • Antonio Garc�a-ferrer

    (Depto. de Análisis Económico: Econom�a Cuantitativa, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain)

  • Aránzazu De Juan

    (Depto. de Análisis Económico: Econom�a Cuantitativa, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain)

  • Pilar Poncela

    (Depto. de Análisis Económico: Econom�a Cuantitativa, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain)

Registered author(s):

    This paper analyses the aggregate relationships between traffic accidents and real economic activity in Spain during the last 30 years. Our general approach is based on two basic assumptions: (1) the number of accidents depends on the use of cars and other exogenous variables, and (2) the level of economic activity affects variation in the stock of cars, as well as degree of utilization. We propose a novel turning point characterization for monthly seasonal data that allows to check whether economic and road accident cycles coincide and, to date the beginning and end of their respective cycles. Empirical results from this section are important in establishing posterior causal models and whether or not economic activity and road accidents have a common component in the long run and a varying lead-lag relationship, depending on the cycles. These models will be the basis to check when Spain will achieve the European Union figures in terms of the fatalities|accidents ratio under different scenarios. Empirical results as well as historical experiences from other European countries proved that reducing fatalities is not only a question of diminishing accidents rates. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/hec.1186
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    Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Health Economics.

    Volume (Year): 16 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 6 ()
    Pages: 603-626

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    Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:16:y:2007:i:6:p:603-626
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/5749

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    1. Bujosa, Marcos & Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Young, Peter C., 2007. "Linear dynamic harmonic regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 999-1024, October.
    2. Hess, Gregory D & Iwata, Shigeru, 1997. "Measuring and Comparing Business-Cycle Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(4), pages 432-44, October.
    3. Harvey, Andrew & Snyder, Ralph D., 1990. "Structural time series models in inventory control," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 187-198, July.
    4. Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & del Hoyo, Juan, 1987. "Analysis of the Car Accident Indexes in Spain: A Multiple Time Series Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(1), pages 27-38, January.
    5. Carpenter, Christopher, 2004. "How do Zero Tolerance Drunk Driving Laws work?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 61-83, January.
    6. Steven D. Levitt & Jack Porter, 2001. "How Dangerous Are Drinking Drivers?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1198-1237, December.
    7. Anne Moller Dano, 2005. "Road injuries and long-run effects on income and employment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(9), pages 955-970.
    8. David Bishai & Asma Quresh & Prashant James & Abdul Ghaffar, 2006. "National road casualties and economic development," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 65-81.
    9. Garcia-Ferrer, A. & de Juan, A. & Poncela, P., 2006. "Forecasting traffic accidents using disaggregated data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 203-222.
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