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Size of economic activity and occurrence of fatal traffic accidents: a count panel data analysis on Fukuoka prefecture in Japan


  • Yoshitsugu Kitazawa

    () (Faculty of Economics, Kyushu Sangyo University)


In this paper, the investigation is conducted on the relationship between the number of fatalities by dint of traffic accidents and the gross municipal product, by using the panel data whose crosssectional units are composed of municipalities in Fukuoka Prefecture in Japan. It turns out that the conventional quasi-differenced GMM estimator gives unconvincing results, while some of the GMM estimators proposed by Kitazawa (2007) give convincing results. The convincing results suggest that the diseconomy of scale is recognized in the occurrence of traffic fatalities.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoshitsugu Kitazawa, 2010. "Size of economic activity and occurrence of fatal traffic accidents: a count panel data analysis on Fukuoka prefecture in Japan," Discussion Papers 41, Kyushu Sangyo University, Faculty of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:kyu:dpaper:41

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Frank Windmeijer, 2006. "GMM for panel count data models," CeMMAP working papers CWP21/06, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    2. Blundell, Richard & Griffith, Rachel & Windmeijer, Frank, 2002. "Individual effects and dynamics in count data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 113-131, May.
    3. Kopits, Elizabeth & Cropper, Maureen, 2003. "Traffic fatalities and economic growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3035, The World Bank.
    4. Gerdtham, Ulf-G. & Ruhm, Christopher J., 2006. "Deaths rise in good economic times: Evidence from the OECD," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 298-316, December.
    5. Christopher J. Ruhm, 2000. "Are Recessions Good for Your Health?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(2), pages 617-650.
    6. P. A. Scuffham, 2003. "Economic factors and traffic crashes in New Zealand," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 179-188.
    7. Nejat Anbarci & Monica Escaleras & Charles A. Register, 2009. "Traffic fatalities: does income inequality create an externality?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(1), pages 244-266, February.
    8. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1997. "Multiplicative Panel Data Models Without the Strict Exogeneity Assumption," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(05), pages 667-678, October.
    9. Moniruzzaman, Syed & Andersson, Ragnar, 2008. "Economic development as a determinant of injury mortality - A longitudinal approach," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 66(8), pages 1699-1708, April.
    10. Antonio García-ferrer & Aránzazu De Juan & Pilar Poncela, 2007. "The relationship between road traffic accidents and real economic activity in Spain: common cycles and health issues," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 603-626.
    11. Yoshitsugu Kitazawa, 2007. "Some additional moment conditions for a dynamic count panel data model," Discussion Papers 29, Kyushu Sangyo University, Faculty of Economics, revised Aug 2008.
    12. Crepon, Bruno & Duguet, Emmanuel, 1997. "Estimating the Innovation Function from Patent Numbers: GMM on Count Panel Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 243-263, May-June.
    13. Neumayer, Eric, 2004. "Recessions lower (some) mortality rates:: evidence from Germany," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 58(6), pages 1037-1047, March.
    14. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    15. David Bishai & Asma Quresh & Prashant James & Abdul Ghaffar, 2006. "National road casualties and economic development," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 65-81.
    16. Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & John van Reenen, 1999. "Market Share, Market Value and Innovation in a Panel of British Manufacturing Firms," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(3), pages 529-554.
    17. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
    18. Windmeijer, Frank, 2000. "Moment conditions for fixed effects count data models with endogenous regressors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 21-24, July.
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    More about this item


    traffic accident; number of fatalities; gross municipal product; count panel data; GMM; diseconomy of scale;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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