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Traffic fatalities and economic growth

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  • Kopits, Elizabeth
  • Cropper, Maureen

Abstract

The authors examine the impact of income growth on the death rate due to traffic fatalities, as well as on fatalities per motor vehicle and on the motorization rate (vehicles/population) using panel data from 1963-99 for 88 countries. Specifically, they estimate fixed effects models for fatalities/population, vehicles/population, and fatalities/vehicles and use these models to project traffic fatalities and the stock of motor vehicles to 2020.The relationship between motor vehicle fatality rate and per capita income at first increases with per capita income, reaches a peak, and then declines. This is because at low income levels the rate of increase in motor vehicles outpaces the decline in fatalities per motor vehicle. At higher income levels, the reverse occurs. The income level at which per capita traffic fatalities peaks is approximately $8,600 in 1985 international dollars. This is within the range of income at which other externalities, such as air and water pollution, have been found to peak. Projections of future traffic fatalities suggest that the global road death toll will grow by approximately 66 percent between 2000 and 2020. This number, however, reflects divergent rates of change in different parts of the world-a decline in fatalities in high-income countries of approximately 28 percent versus an increase in fatalities of almost 92 percent in China and 147 percent in India. The authors also predict that the fatality rate will rise to approximately 2 per 10,000 persons in developing countries by 2020, while it will fall to less than 1 per 10,000 in high-income countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Kopits, Elizabeth & Cropper, Maureen, 2003. "Traffic fatalities and economic growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3035, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3035
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schafer, Andreas, 1998. "The global demand for motorized mobility," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 455-477, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Castillo-Manzano, José I. & Castro-Nuño, Mercedes & Fageda, Xavier, 2015. "Are traffic violators criminals? Searching for answers in the experiences of European countries," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 86-94.
    2. Eskeland, Gunnar S. & Mideksa, Torben K., 2008. "Transportation fuel use, technology and standards: The role of credibility and expectations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4695, The World Bank.
    3. Chang, Yu Sang, 2014. "Comparative analysis of long-term road fatality targets for individual states in the US—An application of experience curve models," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 53-69.
    4. Akie Takeuchi & Maureen Cropper & Antonio Bento, 2007. "The Impact Of Policies To Control Motor Vehicle Emissions In Mumbai, India," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 27-46.
    5. Yoshitsugu Kitazawa, 2010. "Size of economic activity and occurrence of fatal traffic accidents: a count panel data analysis on Fukuoka prefecture in Japan," Discussion Papers 41, Kyushu Sangyo University, Faculty of Economics.
    6. Elizabeth Kopits & Maureen Cropper, 2008. "Why Have Traffic Fatalities Declined in Industrialised Countries?: Implications for Pedestrians and Vehicle Occupants," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 42(1), pages 129-154, January.
    7. John M. Quigley, 2008. "Urbanization, Agglomeration, and Economic Development," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 28042.
    8. Mercedes Castro-Nuño & José I. Castillo-Manzano & Xavier Fageda, 2015. "Do more trucks lead to more motor vehicle fatalities in European roads? Evaluating the impact of specific safety strategies," ERSA conference papers ersa15p306, European Regional Science Association.
    9. José Castillo-Manzano & Mercedes Castro-Nuño & Xavier Fageda, 2014. "Can health public expenditure reduce the tragic consequences of road traffic accidents? The EU-27 experience," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 15(6), pages 645-652, July.
    10. Donald Freeman, 2012. "Income and Preventable Mortality: The Case of Youth Traffic Fatalities," Working Papers 1201, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
    11. Michael Grimm & Carole Treibich, 2013. "Determinants Of Road Traffic Crash Fatalities Across Indian States," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(8), pages 915-930, August.
    12. Soma Bhattacharya & Anna Alberini & Maureen Cropper, 2007. "The value of mortality risk reductions in Delhi, India," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 21-47, February.
    13. Nejat Anbarci & Monica Escaleras & Charles Register, 2005. "Income, Income Inequality and the “Hidden Epidemic” of Traffic Fatalities," Working Papers 05002, Department of Economics, College of Business, Florida Atlantic University, revised Aug 2006.
    14. Daniel Albalate & Germa Bel, 2008. "Motorways, tolls and road safety.Evidence from European Panel Data," IREA Working Papers 200802, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2008.
    15. Grimm, M. & Treibich, C., 2010. "Socio-economic determinants of road traffic accident fatalities in low and middle income countries," ISS Working Papers - General Series 19841, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    16. Mercedes Castro-Nuno & Jose I. Castillo-Manzano & Xavier Fageda, 2013. "The 'Europeanization' Of The Common Road Safety Policy: An Econometric Analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa13p50, European Regional Science Association.
    17. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:2:p:389-:d:129889 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. David Bishai & Asma Quresh & Prashant James & Abdul Ghaffar, 2006. "National road casualties and economic development," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 65-81.
    19. Shuhei Nishitateno & Paul J. Burke, 2014. "The motorcycle Kuznets curve," Departmental Working Papers 2014-04, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    20. José I. Castillo-Manzano & Mercedes Castro-Nuño & Xavier Fageda, 2014. "“Are traffic violators criminals? Searching for answers in experiences of European countries”," IREA Working Papers 201415, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2014.

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