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National road casualties and economic development

Author

Listed:
  • David Bishai

    (Department of Population and Family Health Sciences, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, USA)

  • Asma Quresh

    (Department of Population and Family Health Sciences, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, USA)

  • Prashant James

    (University of California at Irvine, USA)

  • Abdul Ghaffar

    (Global Forum for Health Research, Geneva, Switzerland)

Abstract

Objective: This paper explores why traffic fatalities increase with GDP per capita in lower income countries and decrease with GDP per capita in wealthy countries. Methods: Data from 41 countries for the period 1992-1996 were obtained on road transport crashes, injuries, and fatalities as well as numbers of vehicles, kilometers of roadway, oil consumption, population, and GDP. Fixed effects regression was used to control for unobservable heterogeneity among countries. Results: A 10% increase in GDP in a lower income country (GDP|Capita <1600) is expected to raise the number of crashes by 7.9%, the number of traffic injuries by 4.7%, and the number of deaths by 3.1% through a mechanism that is independent of population size, vehicle counts, oil use, and roadway availability. Increases in GDP in richer countries appear to reduce the number of traffic deaths, but do not reduce the number of crashes or injuries, all else equal. Greater petrol use and alcohol use are related to more traffic fatalities in rich countries, all else equal. Conclusion: In lower income countries a rise in traffic-related crashes, injuries, and deaths accompanies economic growth. At a threshold of around $1500-$8000 per capita economic growth no longer leads to additional traffic deaths, although crashes and traffic injuries continue to increase with growth. The negative association between GDP and traffic deaths in rich countries may be mediated by lower injury severity and post-injury ambulance transport and medical care. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • David Bishai & Asma Quresh & Prashant James & Abdul Ghaffar, 2006. "National road casualties and economic development," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 65-81.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:15:y:2006:i:1:p:65-81
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.1020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Castillo-Manzano, José I. & Castro-Nuño, Mercedes & Fageda, Xavier, 2015. "Are traffic violators criminals? Searching for answers in the experiences of European countries," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 86-94.
    2. Yoshitsugu Kitazawa, 2010. "Size of economic activity and occurrence of fatal traffic accidents: a count panel data analysis on Fukuoka prefecture in Japan," Discussion Papers 41, Kyushu Sangyo University, Faculty of Economics.
    3. Dani Rodrik, 2013. "When Ideas Trump Interests : Preferences, World Views, and Policy  Innovations," Working Papers id:5558, eSocialSciences.
    4. Mercedes Castro-Nuño & José I. Castillo-Manzano & Xavier Fageda, 2015. "Do more trucks lead to more motor vehicle fatalities in European roads? Evaluating the impact of specific safety strategies," ERSA conference papers ersa15p306, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Castillo-Manzano, José I. & Castro-Nuño, Mercedes & Fageda, Xavier, 2016. "Exploring the relationship between truck load capacity and traffic accidents in the European Union," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 94-109.
    6. José Castillo-Manzano & Mercedes Castro-Nuño & Xavier Fageda, 2014. "Can health public expenditure reduce the tragic consequences of road traffic accidents? The EU-27 experience," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 15(6), pages 645-652, July.
    7. Matthew G. Nagler, 2013. "Does Social Capital Promote Safety On The Roads?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(2), pages 1218-1231, April.
    8. French, Michael T. & Gumus, Gulcin, 2014. "Macroeconomic fluctuations and motorcycle fatalities in the U.S," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 187-193.
    9. Hauck, K. & Martin, S. & Smith, P.C., 2016. "Priorities for action on the social determinants of health: Empirical evidence on the strongest associations with life expectancy in 54 low-income countries, 1990–2012," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 88-98.
    10. Michael Grimm & Carole Treibich, 2013. "Determinants Of Road Traffic Crash Fatalities Across Indian States," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(8), pages 915-930, August.
    11. Antonio García-ferrer & Aránzazu De Juan & Pilar Poncela, 2007. "The relationship between road traffic accidents and real economic activity in Spain: common cycles and health issues," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 603-626.
    12. Yueh-Tzu Lu & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2017. "Smeed fs Law and the Role of Hospitals in Modeling Fatalities and Traffic Accidents," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 17-22, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
    13. Law, Teik Hua, 2015. "Factors associated with the relationship between non-fatal road injuries and economic growth," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 166-172.
    14. Grimm, M. & Treibich, C., 2010. "Socio-economic determinants of road traffic accident fatalities in low and middle income countries," ISS Working Papers - General Series 19841, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    15. Mercedes Castro-Nuno & Jose I. Castillo-Manzano & Xavier Fageda, 2013. "The 'Europeanization' Of The Common Road Safety Policy: An Econometric Analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa13p50, European Regional Science Association.
    16. Castillo-Manzano, José I. & Castro-Nuño, Mercedes & Pedregal, Diego J., 2014. "The trend towards convergence in road accident fatality rates in Europe: The contributions of non-economic variables," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 229-240.
    17. Sherzod Yarmukhamedov, 2017. "Determinants of Traffic Fatalities in Sweden," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 7(2), pages 1-1.
    18. José I. Castillo-Manzano & Mercedes Castro-Nuño & Xavier Fageda, 2014. "“Are traffic violators criminals? Searching for answers in experiences of European countries”," IREA Working Papers 201415, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2014.

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