National road casualties and economic development
Objective: This paper explores why traffic fatalities increase with GDP per capita in lower income countries and decrease with GDP per capita in wealthy countries. Methods: Data from 41 countries for the period 1992-1996 were obtained on road transport crashes, injuries, and fatalities as well as numbers of vehicles, kilometers of roadway, oil consumption, population, and GDP. Fixed effects regression was used to control for unobservable heterogeneity among countries. Results: A 10% increase in GDP in a lower income country (GDP|Capita <1600) is expected to raise the number of crashes by 7.9%, the number of traffic injuries by 4.7%, and the number of deaths by 3.1% through a mechanism that is independent of population size, vehicle counts, oil use, and roadway availability. Increases in GDP in richer countries appear to reduce the number of traffic deaths, but do not reduce the number of crashes or injuries, all else equal. Greater petrol use and alcohol use are related to more traffic fatalities in rich countries, all else equal. Conclusion: In lower income countries a rise in traffic-related crashes, injuries, and deaths accompanies economic growth. At a threshold of around $1500-$8000 per capita economic growth no longer leads to additional traffic deaths, although crashes and traffic injuries continue to increase with growth. The negative association between GDP and traffic deaths in rich countries may be mediated by lower injury severity and post-injury ambulance transport and medical care. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume (Year): 15 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/5749|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ruhm, Christopher J., 1996.
"Alcohol policies and highway vehicle fatalities,"
Journal of Health Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 435-454, August.
- Christopher J. Ruhm, 1995. "Alcohol Policies and Highway Vehicle Fatalities," NBER Working Papers 5195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
- Hausman, Jerry A, 1978. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1251-1271, November.
- J. A. Hausman, 1976. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Working papers 185, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Kopits, Elizabeth & Cropper, Maureen, 2003. "Traffic fatalities and economic growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3035, The World Bank.
- Susmita Dasgupta & Benoit Laplante & Hua Wang & David Wheeler, 2002. "Confronting the Environmental Kuznets Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 147-168, Winter.
- Richard Tay, 2003. "Marginal Effects of Changing the Vehicle Mix on Fatal Crashes," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 37(3), pages 439-450, September. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)