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Pilar Poncela

Personal Details

First Name:Pilar
Middle Name:
Last Name:Poncela
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RePEc Short-ID:ppo612
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Affiliation

(80%) Joint Research Centre
European Commission

Ispra, Italy
https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/about/jrc-site/ispra
RePEc:edi:eejrcit (more details at EDIRC)

(20%) Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales
Universidad Autónoma de Madrid

Madrid, Spain
http://www.uam.es/ss/Satellite/Economicas/es/home
RePEc:edi:feuames (more details at EDIRC)

Research output

as
Jump to: Working papers Articles Chapters

Working papers

  1. Juan B'ogalo & Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2020. "Understanding fluctuations in economics through Multivariate Circulant Singular Spectrum Analysis," Papers 2007.07561, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
  2. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther, 2020. "A comment on the dynamic factor model with dynamic factors," Economics Discussion Papers 2020-7, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  3. Miranda Gualdrón, Karen Alejandra & Ruiz Ortega, Esther & Poncela Blanco, Maria Pilar, 2020. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: this is not just another survey," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 30644, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  4. Asdrubali, Pierfederico & Kim, Soyoung & Pericoli, Filippo & Poncela, Pilar, 2018. "New Risk Sharing Channels in OECD Countries: a Heterogeneous Panel VAR," Working Papers 2018-13, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (Ispra site).
  5. Poncela, Pilar & Corona, Francisco & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2017. "Estimating non-stationary common factors : Implications for risk sharing," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 24585, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  6. Bógalo, Juan & Poncela, Pilar & Senra, Eva, 2017. "Automatic Signal Extraction for Stationary and Non-Stationary Time Series by Circulant SSA," MPRA Paper 76023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Pilar Poncela & Filippo Pericoli & Anna Manca & Filippo Michela Nardo, 2016. "Risk Sharing in Europe," JRC Working Papers JRC104621, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
  8. Ruiz, Esther & Poncela, Maria Pilar & Corona, Francisco, 2016. "Determining the number of factors after stationary univariate transformations," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1602, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  9. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther, 2015. "Small versus big-data factor extraction in Dynamic Factor Models: An empirical assessment," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1502, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  10. Rodríguez, Julio & Poncela, Pilar & Fuentes, Julieta, 2014. "Selecting and combining experts from survey forecasts," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws140905, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  11. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2013. "Short-term forecasting for empirical economists. A survey of the recently proposed algorithms," Working Papers 1318, Banco de España.
  12. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar, 2012. "Green Shoots and Double Dips in the Euro Area. A Real Time Measure," CEPR Discussion Papers 8896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar, 2012. "Extracting nonlinear signals from several economic indicators," CEPR Discussion Papers 8865, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar, 2012. "Markov-switching dynamic factor models in real time," CEPR Discussion Papers 8866, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Ruiz, Esther & Poncela, Pilar, 2012. "More is not always better : back to the Kalman filter in dynamic factor models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws122317, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  16. Rodríguez, Julio & Poncela, Pilar & Fuentes, Julieta, 2012. "Sparse partial least squares in time series for macroeconomic forecasting," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws122216, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  17. Gabriel Pérez-Quiros & Maximo Camacho & Pilar Poncela, 2010. "Green Shoots? Where, when and how?," Working Papers 2010-04, FEDEA.
  18. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2010. "Green shoots in the euro area. A real time measure," Working Papers 1026, Banco de España.
  19. Senra, Eva & Poncela, Pilar & Espasa, Antoni, 2002. "Forecasting monthly us consumer price indexes through a disaggregated I(2) analysis," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws020301, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  20. Poncela, Pilar & Peña, Daniel, 2000. "Forecasting with nostationary dynamic factor models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 9959, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  21. Poncela, Pilar & Peña, Daniel & Guerrero, Victor M., 1997. "Measuring intervention effects on multiplie time series subjected to linear restrictions: A Banking Example," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6212, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  22. Poncela, Pilar & Peña, Daniel, 1997. "Eigenstructure of nonstationary factor models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6224, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  23. Poncela, Pilar & Juárez, Rodrigo & Guerrero, Victor M., 1997. "Data graduation based on statistical time series methods," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6213, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  24. Poncela, Pilar & Peña, Daniel, 1996. "Pooling information and forecasting with dynamic factor analysis," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 10709, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.

Articles

  1. Francisco Corona & Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2020. "Estimating Non-stationary Common Factors: Implications for Risk Sharing," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(1), pages 37-60, January.
  2. Jorge Caiado & Nuno Crato & Pilar Poncela, 2020. "A fragmented-periodogram approach for clustering big data time series," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 14(1), pages 117-146, March.
  3. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra & Lya Paola Sierra, 2020. "Global vs Sectoral Factors and the Impact of the Financialization in Commodity Price Changes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 859-879, September.
  4. Poncela, Pilar & Nardo, Michela & Pericoli, Filippo M., 2019. "A Review of International Risk Sharing for Policy Analysis," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 23(3), pages 227-260, September.
  5. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar, 2018. "Markov-switching dynamic factor models in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 598-611.
  6. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2017. "Measuring uncertainty and assessing its predictive power in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 165-182, August.
  7. César Castro & Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez & Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2017. "A new look at oil price pass-through into inflation: evidence from disaggregated European data," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 34(1), pages 55-82, April.
  8. Francisco Corona & Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2017. "Determining the number of factors after stationary univariate transformations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 351-372, August.
  9. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra & Lya Paola Sierra, 2017. "Long-term links between raw materials prices, real exchange rate and relative de-industrialization in a commodity-dependent economy: empirical evidence of “Dutch disease” in Colombia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 777-798, March.
  10. Martínez, Wilmer & Nieto, Fabio H. & Poncela, Pilar, 2016. "Choosing a dynamic common factor as a coincident index," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 89-98.
  11. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez‐Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2015. "Extracting Nonlinear Signals from Several Economic Indicators," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 1073-1089, November.
  12. Julieta Fuentes & Pilar Poncela & Julio Rodríguez, 2015. "Sparse Partial Least Squares in Time Series for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 576-595, June.
  13. Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar, 2014. "Green shoots and double dips in the euro area: A real time measure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 520-535.
  14. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra & Daniel Sotelsek & Guido Zack, 2014. "Some New Results on the Estimation of Structural Budget Balance for Spain," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 210(3), pages 11-31, September.
  15. Pilar Poncela & Antonio García‐Ferrer, 2014. "The Effects of Disaggregation on Forecasting Nonstationary Time Series," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 300-314, July.
  16. Poncela, Pilar & Guerrero, Víctor & Islas C., Alejandro & Rodríguez, Julio & Sánchez-Mangas, Rocío, 2014. "Mexico: Combining monthly inflation predictions from surveys," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
  17. Poncela, Pilar & Guerrero, Víctor & Islas C., Alejandro & Rodríguez, Julio & Sánchez-Mangas, Rocío, 2014. "México: la combinación de las predicciones mensuales de inflación mediante encuestas," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
  18. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra & Lya Paola Sierra, 2014. "Common dynamics of nonenergy commodity prices and their relation to uncertainty," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(30), pages 3724-3735, October.
  19. Poncela, Marta & Poncela, Pilar & Perán, José Ramón, 2013. "Automatic tuning of Kalman filters by maximum likelihood methods for wind energy forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 349-362.
  20. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar, 2013. "Short-term Forecasting for Empirical Economists: A Survey of the Recently Proposed Algorithms," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 6(2), pages 101-161, November.
  21. Poncela, Pilar & Rodríguez, Julio & Sánchez-Mangas, Rocío & Senra, Eva, 2011. "Forecast combination through dimension reduction techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 224-237.
  22. Antonio García‐ferrer & Aránzazu De Juan & Pilar Poncela, 2007. "The relationship between road traffic accidents and real economic activity in spain: common cycles and health issues," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 603-626, June.
  23. Garcia-Ferrer, A. & de Juan, A. & Poncela, P., 2006. "Forecasting traffic accidents using disaggregated data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 203-222.
  24. Antonio García-Ferrer & Marcos Bujosa & Aránzazu de Juan & Pilar Poncela, 2006. "Demand Forecast and Elasticities Estimation of Public Transport," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 40(1), pages 45-67, January.
  25. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2006. "A two factor model to combine US inflation forecasts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(18), pages 2191-2197.
  26. Ortega, Jose Antonio & Poncela, Pilar, 2005. "Joint forecasts of Southern European fertility rates with non-stationary dynamic factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 539-550.
  27. Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & De Gooijer, Jan G. & Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther, 2005. "Introduction to nonlinearities, business cycles, and forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 623-625.
  28. Pena, Daniel & Poncela, Pilar, 2004. "Forecasting with nonstationary dynamic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 291-321, April.
  29. Poncela, Pilar, 2004. "Time series analysis by state space methods: J. Durbin and S.J. Koopman, Oxford Statistical Series 24, 2001, Oxford University Press, ISBN 0-19-852354-8, 254 pages, price: [UK pound]36.00 (hardback)," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 139-141.
  30. Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Poncela, Pilar, 2002. "Forecasting European GNP Data through Common Factor Models and Other Procedures," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 225-244, July.
  31. Guerrero, Víctor M. & Juárez, Rodrigo & Poncela, Pilar, 2001. "Data graduation based on statistical time series methods," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 169-175, April.
  32. Guerrero, Victor M & Pena, Daniel & Poncela, Pilar, 1998. "Measuring Intervention Effects on Multiple Time Series Subjected to Linear Restrictions: A Banking Example," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 489-497, October.

Chapters

  1. Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2016. "Small- Versus Big-Data Factor Extraction in Dynamic Factor Models: An Empirical Assessment," Advances in Econometrics, in: Eric Hillebrand & Siem Jan Koopman (ed.), Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 401-434, Emerald Publishing Ltd.

More information

Research fields, statistics, top rankings, if available.

Statistics

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Rankings

This author is among the top 5% authors according to these criteria:
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Co-authorship network on CollEc

NEP Fields

NEP is an announcement service for new working papers, with a weekly report in each of many fields. This author has had 20 papers announced in NEP. These are the fields, ordered by number of announcements, along with their dates. If the author is listed in the directory of specialists for this field, a link is also provided.
  1. NEP-ETS: Econometric Time Series (12) 2003-03-03 2012-03-28 2012-03-28 2012-07-14 2012-08-23 2012-11-11 2013-11-16 2016-03-10 2017-01-15 2017-05-28 2020-05-11 2020-06-29. Author is listed
  2. NEP-ECM: Econometrics (9) 2012-03-28 2012-03-28 2012-08-23 2012-11-11 2015-03-13 2017-01-15 2017-05-28 2020-05-11 2020-06-29. Author is listed
  3. NEP-MAC: Macroeconomics (8) 2010-07-31 2012-03-28 2012-07-14 2012-08-23 2017-01-01 2017-01-15 2018-12-17 2020-07-27. Author is listed
  4. NEP-EEC: European Economics (4) 2010-03-20 2010-07-31 2012-03-28 2017-01-01
  5. NEP-FOR: Forecasting (4) 2012-03-28 2012-08-23 2013-11-16 2014-04-18
  6. NEP-BEC: Business Economics (3) 2010-03-20 2012-03-28 2012-07-14
  7. NEP-OPM: Open Economy Macroeconomics (2) 2017-01-01 2018-12-17
  8. NEP-ORE: Operations Research (2) 2010-07-31 2020-05-11
  9. NEP-CBA: Central Banking (1) 2010-07-31
  10. NEP-ENE: Energy Economics (1) 2020-07-27
  11. NEP-GEN: Gender (1) 2020-05-11

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