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Forecasting European GNP Data through Common Factor Models and Other Procedures

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  • Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio
  • Poncela, Pilar

Abstract

In this paper we present an extensive study of annual GNP data for five European countries. We look for intercountry dependence and analyse how the different economies interact, using several univariate ARIMA and unobserved components models and a multivariate model for the GNP incorporating all the common information among the variables. We use a dynamic factor model to take account of the common dynamic structure of the variables. This common dynamic structure can be non-stationary (i.e. common trends) or stationary (i.e. common cycles). Comparisons of the models are made in terms of the root mean square error (RMSE) for one-step-ahead forecasts. For this particular group of European countries, the factor model outperforms the remaining ones. Copyright © 2002 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Poncela, Pilar, 2002. "Forecasting European GNP Data through Common Factor Models and Other Procedures," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 225-244, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:21:y:2002:i:4:p:225-44
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Gerlach & Matthew S. Yiu, 2004. "A Dynamic Factor Model for Current-Quarter Estimates of Economic Activity in Hong Kong," Working Papers 162004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    2. Ortega, Jose Antonio & Poncela, Pilar, 2005. "Joint forecasts of Southern European fertility rates with non-stationary dynamic factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 539-550.
    3. Wei-Chun Hsu & Lin Lin & Chen-Yu Li, 2014. "Forecasting automobile sales: the Peña-Box approach," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 568-580, August.
    4. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    5. Hwee Kwan Chow & Keen Meng Choy, 2009. "Analyzing and forecasting business cycles in a small open economy: A dynamic factor model for Singapore," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2009(1), pages 19-41.
    6. Pena, Daniel & Poncela, Pilar, 2004. "Forecasting with nonstationary dynamic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 291-321, April.
    7. Marcos Bujosa & Antonio García‐Ferrer & Aránzazu de Juan & Antonio Martín‐Arroyo, 2020. "Evaluating early warning and coincident indicators of business cycles using smooth trends," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 1-17, January.
    8. John Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables," Staff Working Papers 07-1, Bank of Canada.

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