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Forecasting traffic accidents using disaggregated data

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  • Garcia-Ferrer, A.
  • de Juan, A.
  • Poncela, P.

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  • Garcia-Ferrer, A. & de Juan, A. & Poncela, P., 2006. "Forecasting traffic accidents using disaggregated data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 203-222.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:22:y:2006:i:2:p:203-222
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kohn, Robert, 1982. "When is an aggregate of a time series efficiently forecast by its past?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 337-349, April.
    2. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1984. "Linear transformations of vector ARMA processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 283-293, December.
    3. Fildes, Robert & Hibon, Michele & Makridakis, Spyros & Meade, Nigel, 1998. "Generalising about univariate forecasting methods: further empirical evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 339-358, September.
    4. Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Queralt, Ricardo A., 1997. "A note on forecasting international tourism demand in Spain," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 539-549, December.
    5. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
    6. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
    7. Tiao, G. C. & Guttman, Irwin, 1980. "Forecasting contemporal aggregates of multiple time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 219-230, February.
    8. Osborn, Denise R, et al, 1988. "Seasonality and the Order of Integration for Consumption," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 50(4), pages 361-377, November.
    9. Franses, Philip Hans, 1991. "Seasonality, non-stationarity and the forecasting of monthly time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 199-208, August.
    10. Tobias, Justin & Zellner, Arnold, 2000. "A Note on Aggregation, Disaggregation and Forecasting Performance," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12024, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Philip Hans Franses & Yoshinori Kawasaki, 2004. "Do seasonal unit roots matter for forecasting monthly industrial production?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 77-88.
    12. Marcos Bujosa & Antonio García Ferrer & Peter Young, 2002. "An ARMA Representation of Unobserved Component Models under Generalized Random Walk Specifications: New Algorithms and Examples," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0204, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    13. Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & del Hoyo, Juan, 1987. "Analysis of the Car Accident Indexes in Spain: A Multiple Time Series Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(1), pages 27-38, January.
    14. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February.
    15. Chung-Shu Wu & Ruey S. Tsay, 2003. "Forecasting with leading indicators revisited," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(8), pages 603-617.
    16. Mark W. Watson & James H. Stock, 2004. "Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 405-430.
    17. Yue Fang & Sergio G. Koreisha, 2004. "Updating ARMA predictions for temporal aggregates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 275-296.
    18. Fildes, Robert, 1992. "The evaluation of extrapolative forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 81-98, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dadashova, Bahar & Ramírez Arenas, Blanca & McWilliams Mira, José & Izquierdo Aparicio, Francisco, 2014. "Explanatory and prediction power of two macro models. An application to van-involved accidents in Spain," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 203-217.
    2. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2015. "Simple versus complex forecasting: The evidence," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1678-1685.
    3. Antonio García-ferrer & Aránzazu De Juan & Pilar Poncela, 2007. "The relationship between road traffic accidents and real economic activity in Spain: common cycles and health issues," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 603-626.
    4. Jaume Rosselló Nadal & Óscar Saenz-de-Miera, 2009. "Road accidents and tourism: the case of the Balearic Islands (Spain)," CRE Working Papers (Documents de treball del CRE) 2009/4, Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB ·"Sa Nostra").

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