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Thomas H. McCurdy

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. McCurdy, Thomas H & Morgan, Ieuan G, 1988. "Testing the Martingale Hypothesis in Deutsche Mark Futures with Models Specifying the Form of Heteroscedasticity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 187-202, July-Sept.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Testing the martingale hypothesis in deutsche mark futures with models specifying the form of heteroscedasticity (Journal of Applied Econometrics 1988) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy & Yong Song, 2020. "Bull and Bear Markets During the COVID-19 Pandemic," Papers 2012.01623, arXiv.org.

    Cited by:

    1. Kirby, Chris, 2023. "A closer look at the regime-switching evidence of bull and bear markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    2. Liang, Chao & Xu, Yongan & Wang, Jianqiong & Yang, Mo, 2022. "Whether dimensionality reduction techniques can improve the ability of sentiment proxies to predict stock market returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Iyer, Subramanian Rama & Simkins, Betty J., 2022. "COVID-19 and the Economy: Summary of research and future directions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    4. Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Marcin Wk{a}torek & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z, 2021. "Cryptocurrency Market Consolidation in 2020--2021," Papers 2112.06552, arXiv.org.

  2. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy & Xiaofei Zhao, 2012. "Do Jumps Contribute to the Dynamics of the Equity Premium?," Working Paper series 47_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.

    Cited by:

    1. Deniz Erdemlioglu & Nikola Gradojevic, 2020. "Heterogeneous investment horizons, risk regimes, and realized jumps," Post-Print hal-02995997, HAL.
    2. Kuttu, Saint, 2017. "Time-varying conditional discrete jumps in emerging African equity markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 35-54.
    3. Rangan Gupta & Tahir Suleman & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "The role of time‐varying rare disaster risks in predicting bond returns and volatility," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 327-340, July.
    4. Rıza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Tahir Suleman & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "Time-Varying Rare Disaster Risks, Oil Returns and Volatility," Working Papers 201762, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Jozef Barunik & Josef Kurka, 2021. "Risks of heterogeneously persistent higher moments," Papers 2104.04264, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    6. Li, Chenxing & Maheu, John M, 2020. "A Multivariate GARCH-Jump Mixture Model," MPRA Paper 104770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Mark J. Jensen & John M. Maheu, 2014. "Risk, Return and Volatility Feedback: A Bayesian Nonparametric Analysis," Working Paper series 31_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    8. Deniz Erdemlioglu & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2015. "Which continuous-time model is most appropriate for exchange rates?," Post-Print hal-01457402, HAL.
    9. Cerrato, Mario & Crosby, John & Kim, Minjoo & Zhao, Yang, 2017. "Relation between higher order comoments and dependence structure of equity portfolio," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 101-120.
    10. Peter Christoffersen & Bruno Feunou & Yoontae Jeon & Chayawat Ornthanalai, 2016. "Time-Varying Crash Risk: The Role of Stock Market Liquidity," Staff Working Papers 16-35, Bank of Canada.
    11. Zhou, Chunyang & Wu, Chongfeng & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "Dynamic portfolio allocation with time-varying jump risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 113-124.
    12. Marco Bee & Debbie J. Dupuis & Luca Trapin, 2016. "US stock returns: are there seasons of excesses?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(9), pages 1453-1464, September.
    13. Nolte, Ingmar & Xu, Qi, 2015. "The economic value of volatility timing with realized jumps," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 45-59.
    14. Qian, Ya & Tu, Jun & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2019. "Information Arrival, News Sentiment, Volatilities and Jumps of Intraday Returns," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2019-002, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    15. Chunyang Zhou & Chongfeng Wu & Weidong Xu, 2020. "Incorporating time‐varying jump intensities in the mean‐variance portfolio decisions," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 460-478, March.
    16. Zhang, Yuan-Yuan & Zhang, Yue-Jun, 2022. "The impact of institutional analyst forecast divergence on crude oil market: Evidence from the mixed frequency models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    17. Piccotti, Louis R., 2018. "Jumps, cojumps, and efficiency in the spot foreign exchange market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 49-67.
    18. Li, Gang & Zhang, Chu, 2016. "On the relationship between conditional jump intensity and diffusive volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 196-213.
    19. Thomas Conlon & John Cotter & Chenglu Jin, 2016. "The Intervaling Effect on Higher-Order Co-Moments," Working Papers 201602, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    20. Xiao, Xiao & Zhou, Chen, 2018. "The decomposition of jump risks in individual stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 207-228.
    21. Jeon, Yoontae & McCurdy, Thomas H. & Zhao, Xiaofei, 2022. "News as sources of jumps in stock returns: Evidence from 21 million news articles for 9000 companies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 1-17.

  3. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy & Yong Song, 2010. "Components of bull and bear markets: bull corrections and bear rallies," Working Papers tecipa-402, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Heidari , Hassan & Refah-Kahriz, Arash & Hashemi Berenjabadi, Nayyer, 2018. "Dynamic Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Return Volatility in Tehran Stock Exchange: Multivariate MS ARMA GARCH Approach," Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Business, University of Tabriz, vol. 5(2), pages 223-250, August.
    2. Mathieu Gatumel & Florian Ielpo, 2011. "The Number of Regimes Across Asset Returns: Identification and Economic Value," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00658540, HAL.
    3. Frédérique Bec & Annabelle de Gaye, 2019. "Le modèle autorégressif autorégressif à seuil avec effet rebond : Une application aux rendements boursiers français et américains ," Working Papers hal-02014663, HAL.
    4. Erik Kole & Dick Dijk, 2017. "How to Identify and Forecast Bull and Bear Markets?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 120-139, January.
    5. Felix Haase & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2020. "Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets: A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the US," Research Papers in Economics 2020-01, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    6. Gupta, Priyanshi & Sehgal, Sanjay & Deisting, Florent, 2015. "Time-Varying Bond Market Integration in EMU," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 30(4), pages 708-760.
    7. Kirby, Chris, 2023. "A closer look at the regime-switching evidence of bull and bear markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    8. Kurov, Alexander & Olson, Eric & Zaynutdinova, Gulnara R., 2022. "When does the fed care about stock prices?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    9. Liu, Jia & Maheu, John M & Song, Yong, 2023. "Identification and Forecasting of Bull and Bear Markets using Multivariate Returns," MPRA Paper 119515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Maheu, John M. & McCurdy, Thomas H. & Song, Yong, 2021. "Bull and bear markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    11. Li, Ziran & Sun, Jiajing & Wang, Shouyang, 2013. "Amplitude-Duration-Persistence Trade-off Relationship for Long Term Bear Stock Markets," MPRA Paper 54177, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Collet, Jerome & Ielpo, Florian, 2018. "Sector spillovers in credit markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 267-278.
    13. Yong Song & Tomasz Wo'zniak, 2020. "Markov Switching," Papers 2002.03598, arXiv.org.
    14. Frédérique BEC & Songlin ZENG, 2013. "Do Stock Returns Rebound After Bear Markets? An Empirical Analysis From Five OECD Countries," THEMA Working Papers 2013-21, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    15. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano & Aminu, Abubakar Wambai, 2018. "Economic regimes and stock market performance in Nigeria: Evidence from regime switching model," MPRA Paper 91430, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Oct 2018.
    16. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2016. "Losing Track of the Asset Markets: the Case of Housing and Stock," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 19(4), pages 435-492.
    17. Jia Liu & John M. Maheu, 2018. "Improving Markov switching models using realized variance," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 297-318, April.
    18. Bejaoui, Azza & Karaa, Adel, 2016. "Revisiting the bull and bear markets notions in the Tunisian stock market: New evidence from multi-state duration-dependence Markov-switching models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 529-545.
    19. Sehgal, Sanjay & Gupta, Priyanshi & Deisting, Florent, 2014. "Assessing Time-Varying Stock Market Integration in EMU for Normal and Crisis Periods," MPRA Paper 64078, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Lazrak, Skander & Liao, Yusui & Welch, Robert, 2018. "Performance of fixed-income mutual funds with regime-switching models," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 217-231.
    21. Yong Song, 2014. "Modelling Regime Switching And Structural Breaks With An Infinite Hidden Markov Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 825-842, August.
    22. Blanka Horvath & Zacharia Issa & Aitor Muguruza, 2021. "Clustering Market Regimes using the Wasserstein Distance," Papers 2110.11848, arXiv.org.
    23. Mathieu Gatumel & Florian Ielpo, 2011. "The Number of Regimes Across Asset Returns: Identification and Economic Value," Post-Print halshs-00658540, HAL.
    24. James Ming Chen & Mobeen Ur Rehman, 2021. "A Pattern New in Every Moment: The Temporal Clustering of Markets for Crude Oil, Refined Fuels, and Other Commodities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-58, September.
    25. Zegadło, Piotr, 2022. "Identifying bull and bear market regimes with a robust rule-based method," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    26. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2020. "What have we learnt from modelling stock returns in Nigeria: Higgledy-piggledy?," MPRA Paper 110382, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jun 2021.
    27. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2016. "Does the return-state-varying relationship between risk and return matter in modeling the time series process of stock return?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 72-87.
    28. Mendes, Fernando Henrique de Paula e Silva & Caldeira, João Frois & Moura, Guilherme Valle, 2018. "Evidence of Bull and Bear Markets in the Bovespa index: An application of Markovian regime-switching Models with Duration Dependence," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 38(1), May.
    29. Damir Tokic & Dave Jackson, 2023. "When a correction turns into a bear market: What explains the depth of the stock market drawdown? A discretionary global macro approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(3), pages 184-197, May.
    30. Nicolau, João, 2016. "Structural change test in duration of bull and bear markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 64-67.
    31. Valeriy Zakamulin, 2023. "Not all bull and bear markets are alike: insights from a five-state hidden semi-Markov model," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(1), pages 1-25, March.
    32. Giner, Javier & Zakamulin, Valeriy, 2023. "A regime-switching model of stock returns with momentum and mean reversion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    33. Jeff Fleming & Chris Kirby, 2013. "Component-Driven Regime-Switching Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 263-301, March.
    34. Ntantamis, Christos & Zhou, Jun, 2015. "Bull and bear markets in commodity prices and commodity stocks: Is there a relation?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 61-81.
    35. Julien Chevallier & Mathieu Gatumel & Florian Ielpo, 2013. "Understanding momentum in commodity markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(15), pages 1383-1402, October.
    36. Hanna, Alan J., 2018. "A top-down approach to identifying bull and bear market states," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 93-110.

  4. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy & Yong Song, 2009. "Extracting bull and bear markets from stock returns," Working Papers tecipa-369, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Cem Cakmakli & Richard Paap & Dick J.C. van Dijk, 2011. "Modeling and Estimation of Synchronization in Multistate Markov-Switching Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-002/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Vassilios Babalos & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Nikolaos Philippas, 2014. "Revisiting Herding Behavior in REITs: A RegimeSwitching Approach," Working Papers 15-15, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    3. Balcilar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2013. "Investor herds and regime-switching: Evidence from Gulf Arab stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 295-321.
    4. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Ahmed Khalifa, 2013. "Do Global Shocks Drive Investor Herds in Oil-Rich Frontier Markets?," Working Papers 819, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2013.
    5. Frédérique BEC & Songlin ZENG, 2013. "Do Stock Returns Rebound After Bear Markets? An Empirical Analysis From Five OECD Countries," THEMA Working Papers 2013-21, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    6. Elsayed Elsiefy & Moustafa Ahmed AbdElaal, 2017. "Analyzing Foreign Investors Behavior in the Emerging Stock Market: Evidence from Qatar Stock Market," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(4), pages 197-197, Novebmer.
    7. Balcılar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2015. "Regional and global spillovers and diversification opportunities in the GCC equity sectors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 160-187.
    8. Ibrahim M. Awad & Abdel-Rahman Al-Ewesat, 2017. "Volatility Persistence in Palestine Exchange Bulls and Bears: An Econometric Analysis of Time Series Data," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 9, pages 83-97, August.
    9. Samet Günay, 2014. "Are the Scaling Properties of Bull and Bear Markets Identical? Evidence from Oil and Gold Markets," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-20, October.
    10. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "The Risk Exposures of Safe Havens to Global and Regional Stock Market Shocks: A Novel Approach," Working Papers 201915, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

  5. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2009. "Do High-Frequency Measures of Volatility Improve Forecasts of Return Distributions?," Working Paper series 19_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.

    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "The contribution of jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Post-Print halshs-01442618, HAL.
    2. Großmaß Lidan, 2014. "Liquidity and the Value at Risk," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 234(5), pages 572-602, October.
    3. Avdoulas, Christos & Bekiros, Stelios & Boubaker, Sabri, 2016. "Detecting nonlinear dependencies in eurozone peripheral equity markets: A multistep filtering approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 580-587.
    4. Mathieu Gatumel & Florian Ielpo, 2011. "The Number of Regimes Across Asset Returns: Identification and Economic Value," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00658540, HAL.
    5. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2020. "The contribution of intraday jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Post-Print halshs-02505861, HAL.
    6. Minchul Shin & Molin Zhong, 2015. "Does Realized Volatility Help Bond Yield Density Prediction?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-115, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Dong Hwan Oh & Andrew J. Patton, 2015. "High-Dimensional Copula-Based Distributions with Mixed Frequency Data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2014. "Forecasting the density of oil futures," Working Papers 2014-601, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    9. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2016. "Intraday volatility interaction between the crude oil and equity markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-13.
    10. Meichi Huang & Chih-Chiang Wu, 2015. "Economic benefits and determinants of extreme dependences between REIT and stock returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 299-327, February.
    11. Elder, John & Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay, 2012. "Impact of macroeconomic news on metal futures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 51-65.
    12. Hadhri, Sinda & Ftiti, Zied, 2019. "Commonality in liquidity among Middle East and North Africa emerging stock markets: Does it really matter?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(3).
    13. Fengler, Matthias R. & Okhrin, Ostap, 2016. "Managing risk with a realized copula parameter," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 131-152.
    14. Sévi, Benoît, 2014. "Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures using intraday data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(3), pages 643-659.
    15. Wang, Jinghua & Ngene, Geoffrey M., 2020. "Does Bitcoin still own the dominant power? An intraday analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    16. Mark J. Jensen & John M. Maheu, 2014. "Risk, Return and Volatility Feedback: A Bayesian Nonparametric Analysis," Working Paper series 31_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    17. Fengler, Matthias R. & Gisler, Katja I. M., 2014. "A variance spillover analysis without covariances: what do we miss?," Economics Working Paper Series 1409, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    18. Wen, Danyan & Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil market returns: Enhanced moving average technical indicators," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    19. Tan, Pei P. & Galagedera, Don U.A. & Maharaj, Elizabeth A., 2012. "A wavelet based investigation of long memory in stock returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(7), pages 2330-2341.
    20. Liu, Yi & Liu, Huifang & Zhang, Lei, 2019. "Modeling and forecasting return jumps using realized variation measures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 63-80.
    21. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2015. "Does data frequency matter for the impact of forward premium on spot exchange rate?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 45-53.
    22. Bjoern Schulte-Tillmann & Mawuli Segnon & Timo Wiedemann, 2023. "A comparison of high-frequency realized variance measures: Duration- vs. return-based approaches," CQE Working Papers 10523, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    23. Dinghai Xu, 2010. "A Threshold Stochastic Volatility Model with Realized Volatility," Working Papers 1003, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised May 2010.
    24. Neil Shephard & Kevin Sheppard, 2009. "Realising the future: forecasting with high frequency based volatility (HEAVY) models," Economics Series Working Papers 438, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    25. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2011. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," CREATES Research Papers 2011-37, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    26. Cathy Ning & Dinghai Xu & Tony Wirjanto, 2010. "Modeling Asymmetric Volatility Clusters Using Copulas and High Frequency Data," Working Papers 1001, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2010.
    27. Álvaro Cartea & Dimitrios Karyampas, 2009. "The Relationship Between the Volatility of Returns and the Number of Jumps in Financial Markets," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0914, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    28. Chorro, Christophe & Ielpo, Florian & Sévi, Benoît, 2020. "The contribution of intraday jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    29. Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2016. "Combining Markov Switching and Smooth Transition in Modeling Volatility: A Fuzzy Regime MEM," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2016_02, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    30. Ñíguez, Trino-Manuel & Perote, Javier, 2017. "Moments expansion densities for quantifying financial risk," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 53-69.
    31. Peter Christoffersen & Asger Lunde & Kasper V. Olesen, 2014. "Factor Structure in Commodity Futures Return and Volatility," CREATES Research Papers 2014-31, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    32. Cathy Ning & Dinghai Xu & Tony Wirjanto, 2014. "Is Volatility Clustering of Asset Returns Asymmetric?," Working Papers 050, Ryerson University, Department of Economics.
    33. Seo, Sung Won & Kim, Jun Sik, 2015. "The information content of option-implied information for volatility forecasting with investor sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-120.
    34. Massimiliano Caporin & Eduardo Rossi & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2014. "Volatility jumps and their economic determinants," CREATES Research Papers 2014-27, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    35. David Harris & Gael M. Martin & Indeewara Perera & Don S. Poskitt, 2017. "Construction and visualization of optimal confidence sets for frequentist distributional forecasts," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 9/17, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    36. Fulvio Corsi & Davide Pirino & Roberto Renò, 2008. "Volatility forecasting: the jumps do matter," Department of Economics University of Siena 534, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    37. Katsiampa, Paraskevi & Corbet, Shaen & Lucey, Brian, 2019. "High frequency volatility co-movements in cryptocurrency markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 35-52.
    38. Shinichiro Shirota & Takayuki Hizu & Yasuhiro Omori, 2013. "Realized Stochastic Volatility with Leverage and Long Memory," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-880, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    39. Chai, Edwina F.L. & Lee, Adrian D. & Wang, Jianxin, 2015. "Global information distribution in the gold OTC markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 206-217.
    40. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "The contribution of jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17006, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    41. Sergii Pypko, 2015. "Volatility Forecast in Crises and Expansions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-26, August.
    42. Avdulaj Krenar & Barunik Jozef, 2017. "A semiparametric nonlinear quantile regression model for financial returns," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 81-97, February.
    43. Wen, Danyan & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2021. "Intraday return predictability in China’s crude oil futures market: New evidence from a unique trading mechanism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 209-219.
    44. Shu‐Lien Chang & Hsiu‐Chuan Lee & Donald Lien, 2022. "The global latent factor and international index futures returns predictability," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 514-538, April.
    45. Mathieu Gatumel & Florian Ielpo, 2011. "The Number of Regimes Across Asset Returns: Identification and Economic Value," Post-Print halshs-00658540, HAL.
    46. Jouini, Jamel, 2015. "New empirical evidence from assessing financial market integration, with application to Saudi Arabia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 198-211.
    47. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2020. "The contribution of intraday jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-02505861, HAL.
    48. Meng, Xiaochun & Taylor, James W., 2018. "An approximate long-memory range-based approach for value at risk estimation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 377-388.
    49. Corsi, Fulvio & Fusari, Nicola & La Vecchia, Davide, 2013. "Realizing smiles: Options pricing with realized volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 284-304.
    50. Christophe Chorro & Dominique Guegan & Florian Ielpo & Hanjarivo Lalaharison, 2014. "Testing for Leverage Effects in the Returns of US Equities," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14022r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Jan 2017.
    51. Lyócsa, Štefan & Molnár, Peter & Plíhal, Tomáš & Širaňová, Mária, 2020. "Impact of macroeconomic news, regulation and hacking exchange markets on the volatility of bitcoin," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    52. Cem Cakmakli & Verda Ozturk, 2021. "Economic Value of Modeling the Joint Distribution of Returns and Volatility: Leverage Timing," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2110, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    53. Chun Liu & John M. Maheu, 2008. "Are There Structural Breaks in Realized Volatility?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 326-360, Summer.
    54. Liu, Chun & Maheu, John M., 2012. "Intraday dynamics of volatility and duration: Evidence from Chinese stocks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 329-348.
    55. Dinghai Xu & Yuying Li, 2010. "Empirical Evidence of the Leverage Effect in a Stochastic Volatility Model: A Realized Volatility Approach," Working Papers 1002, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised May 2010.
    56. Souček, Michael & Todorova, Neda, 2013. "Realized volatility transmission between crude oil and equity futures markets: A multivariate HAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 586-597.
    57. Yves Dominicy & Harry-Paul Vander Elst, 2015. "Macro-Driven VaR Forecasts: From Very High to Very Low Frequency Data," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-41, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    58. Yang, Cai & Gong, Xu & Zhang, Hongwei, 2019. "Volatility forecasting of crude oil futures: The role of investor sentiment and leverage effect," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 548-563.
    59. Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2014. "Forecasting Realized Volatility with Changes of Regimes," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2014_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", revised Feb 2014.
    60. Fang, Yan & Ielpo, Florian & Sévi, Benoît, 2012. "Empirical bias in intraday volatility measures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 231-237.
    61. Christophe Chorro & Dominique Guegan & Florian Ielpo & Hanjarivo Lalaharison, 2017. "Testing for Leverage Effects in the Returns of US Equities," Post-Print halshs-00973922, HAL.
    62. Hua, Jian & Manzan, Sebastiano, 2013. "Forecasting the return distribution using high-frequency volatility measures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4381-4403.
    63. Krüger, Fabian & Nolte, Ingmar, 2016. "Disagreement versus uncertainty: Evidence from distribution forecasts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 172-186.
    64. Gallo, Giampiero M. & Otranto, Edoardo, 2015. "Forecasting realized volatility with changing average levels," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 620-634.
    65. Chen, Rongda & Bao, Weiwei & Jin, Chenglu, 2021. "Investor sentiment and predictability for volatility on energy futures Markets: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 112-129.
    66. Kuo, Chen-Yin, 2016. "Does the vector error correction model perform better than others in forecasting stock price? An application of residual income valuation theory," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 772-789.
    67. Chun Liu & John M Maheu, 2010. "Intraday Dynamics of Volatility and Duration: Evidence from the Chinese Stock Market," Working Papers tecipa-401, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    68. Wang, Jianxin, 2013. "Liquidity commonality among Asian equity markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1209-1231.
    69. Christophe Chorro & Dominique Guegan & Florian Ielpo & Hanjarivo Lalaharison, 2014. "Testing for Leverage Effect in Financial Returns," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14022, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.

  6. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2007. "How useful are historical data for forecasting the long-run equity return distribution?," Working Paper series 19_07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.

    Cited by:

    1. Fernandez, Pablo & Aguirreamalloa, Javier & Liechtenstein, Heinrich, 2009. "The equity premium puzzle: High required equity premium, undervaluation and self fulfilling prophecy," IESE Research Papers D/821, IESE Business School.
    2. Dionne, Georges & Maalaoui Chun, Olfa, 2013. "Default and liquidity regimes in the bond market during the 2002-2012 period," Working Papers 13-4, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    3. Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2011. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 17182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Georges Dionne & Olfa Maalaoui Chun, 2013. "Presidential Address: Default and liquidity regimes in the bond market during the 2002–2012 period," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(4), pages 1160-1195, November.
    5. De Angelis Luca & Viroli Cinzia, 2017. "A Markov-switching regression model with non-Gaussian innovations: estimation and testing," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 1-22, April.
    6. Jochmann, Markus & Koop, Gary & Strachan, Rodney W., 2010. "Bayesian forecasting using stochastic search variable selection in a VAR subject to breaks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 326-347, April.
    7. He, Zhongfang, 2009. "Forecasting output growth by the yield curve: the role of structural breaks," MPRA Paper 28208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. John M. Maheu & Yong Song, 2012. "A New Structural Break Model with Application to Canadian Inflation Forecasting," Working Paper series 27_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    9. Dr. James Mitchell, 2009. "Macro Modelling with Many Models," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 337, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    10. Knut Are Aastveit & James Mitchell & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman van Dijk, 2018. "The Evolution of Forecast Density Combinations in Economics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-069/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    11. Yong Song, 2014. "Modelling Regime Switching And Structural Breaks With An Infinite Hidden Markov Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 825-842, August.
    12. Huang, Yan & Kou, Gang & Peng, Yi, 2017. "Nonlinear manifold learning for early warnings in financial markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(2), pages 692-702.
    13. Allan Timmermann, 2018. "Forecasting Methods in Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 449-479, November.
    14. Mboya, Mwasi & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2022. "Optimal Forecasts in the Presence of Discrete Structural Breaks under Long Memory," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-705, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    15. Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P Vahey, 2010. "Measuring Core Inflation in Australia with Disaggregate Ensembles," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    16. Jiawen Xu & Pierre Perron, 2023. "Forecasting in the presence of in-sample and out-of-sample breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(6), pages 3001-3035, June.
    17. Daniele Bianchi & Massimo Guidolin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Macroeconomic Factors Strike Back: A Bayesian Change-Point Model of Time-Varying Risk Exposures and Premia in the U.S. Cross-Section," Working Papers 550, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    18. Meligkotsidou, Loukia & Tzavalis, Elias & Vrontos, Ioannis, 2017. "On Bayesian analysis and unit root testing for autoregressive models in the presence of multiple structural breaks," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 4(C), pages 70-90.
    19. He, Zhongfang & Maheu, John M., 2010. "Real time detection of structural breaks in GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2628-2640, November.
    20. Jiawen Xu & Pierre Perron, 2017. "Forecasting in the presence of in and out of sample breaks," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2018-014, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised Nov 2018.
    21. Yoontae Jeon & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2017. "Time-Varying Window Length for Correlation Forecasts," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-29, December.

  7. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy, 2007. "Modeling foreign exchange rates with jumps," Working Papers tecipa-279, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs & Chayawat Ornthanalai, 2009. "Exploring Time-Varying Jump Intensities: Evidence from S&P500 Returns and Options," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-34, CIRANO.
    2. Park, Beum-Jo, 2010. "Surprising information, the MDH, and the relationship between volatility and trading volume," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 344-366, August.

  8. John M. Maheu & Thomas McCurdy, 2003. "News Arrival, Jump Dynamics and Volatility Components for Individual Stock Returns," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-38, CIRANO.

    Cited by:

    1. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889.
    2. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Francis X. Diebold,, 2003. "Some Like it Smooth, and Some Like it Rough: Untangling Continuous and Jump Components in Measuring, Modeling, and Forecasting Asset Return Volatility," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/35, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    3. Amir Rafique, 2011. "Comparing the Leverage Effect of Different Frequencies of Stock Returns in an Emerging Market: A Case Study of Pakistan," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 3(6), pages 283-288.
    4. Amir Rafique, 2011. "Comparing the Volatility Clustering Of Different Frequencies of Stock Returns in an Emerging Market: A Case Study of Pakistan," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 3(6), pages 332-336.
    5. Wang, Yiming & Tong, Hanfei, 2008. "Modeling and estimating the jump risk of exchange rates: Applications to RMB," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(26), pages 6575-6583.
    6. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 2004. "Power and Bipower Variation with Stochastic Volatility and Jumps," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 1-37.

  9. John M. Maheu & Thomas McCurdy, 2001. "Nonlinear Features of Realized FX Volatility," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-42, CIRANO.

    Cited by:

    1. Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard & Frederiksen, Per, 2008. "Finite sample accuracy and choice of sampling frequency in integrated volatility estimation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 265-286, March.
    2. Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2014. "Intra-Day Realized Volatility for European and USA Stock Indices," MPRA Paper 64940, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2015.
    3. Woerner Jeannette H. C., 2003. "Variational sums and power variation: a unifying approach to model selection and estimation in semimartingale models," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1/2003), pages 47-68, January.
    4. Uwe Hassler & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Antonio Rubia, 2016. "Quantile Regression for Long Memory Testing: A Case of Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 693-724.
    5. Hooper, Vincent J. & Ng, Kevin & Reeves, Jonathan J., 2008. "Quarterly beta forecasting: An evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 480-489.
    6. Fabrizio Cipollini & Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2019. "Realized Volatility Forecasting: Robustness to Measurement Errors," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2019_04, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    7. Bernard Sinclair-Desgagné, 2001. "Incentives in Common Agency," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-66, CIRANO.
    8. Peter Reinhard Hansen & Asger Lunde, 2005. "A Realized Variance for the Whole Day Based on Intermittent High-Frequency Data," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 525-554.
    9. Bucci, Andrea, 2019. "Realized Volatility Forecasting with Neural Networks," MPRA Paper 95443, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Gencay, Ramazan & Selcuk, Faruk & Whitcher, Brandon, 2004. "Information flow between volatilities across time scales," MPRA Paper 10355, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy, 2008. "Do high-frequency measures of volatility improve forecasts of return distributions?," Working Papers tecipa-324, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    12. Nour Meddahi, 2002. "A theoretical comparison between integrated and realized volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 479-508.
    13. Dimitrios I. Vortelinos & Konstantinos Gkillas, 2018. "Intraday realised volatility forecasting and announcements," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 88-118.
    14. Nour Meddahi, 2003. "ARMA representation of integrated and realized variances," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(2), pages 335-356, December.
    15. Lars Forsberg & Tim Bollerslev, 2002. "Bridging the gap between the distribution of realized (ECU) volatility and ARCH modelling (of the Euro): the GARCH-NIG model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 535-548.
    16. Chelley-Steeley, Patricia L. & Tsorakidis, Nikos, 2013. "Bid-ask spread dynamics in foreign exchange markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 119-131.
    17. Mittnik, Stefan & Robinzonov, Nikolay & Spindler, Martin, 2015. "Stock market volatility: Identifying major drivers and the nature of their impact," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-14.
    18. Lin, Xiaoqiang & Fei, Fangyu, 2013. "Long memory revisit in Chinese stock markets: Based on GARCH-class models and multiscale analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 265-275.
    19. Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2018. "Combining sharp and smooth transitions in volatility dynamics: a fuzzy regime approach," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(3), pages 549-573, April.
    20. Nour Meddahi, 2001. "A Theoretical Comparison Between Integrated and Realized Volatilities," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-71, CIRANO.
    21. Ramazan Gencay & Nikola Gradojevic & Faruk Selcuk & Brandon Whitcher, 2010. "Asymmetry of information flow between volatilities across time scales," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(8), pages 895-915.
    22. Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2016. "Combining Markov Switching and Smooth Transition in Modeling Volatility: A Fuzzy Regime MEM," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2016_02, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    23. Chan, Wing Hong & Young, Denise, 2009. "A New Look at Copper Markets: A Regime-Switching Jump Model," Working Papers 2009-13, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    24. Bucci, Andrea, 2019. "Cholesky-ANN models for predicting multivariate realized volatility," MPRA Paper 95137, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Martens, Martin & van Dijk, Dick & de Pooter, Michiel, 2009. "Forecasting S&P 500 volatility: Long memory, level shifts, leverage effects, day-of-the-week seasonality, and macroeconomic announcements," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 282-303.
    26. Hansen, Peter R. & Lunde, Asger, 2014. "Estimating The Persistence And The Autocorrelation Function Of A Time Series That Is Measured With Error," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 60-93, February.
    27. John W. Galbraith & Victoria Zinde-Walsh, 2001. "Properties of Estimates of Daily GARCH Parameters Basaed on Intra-Day Observations," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-15, CIRANO.
    28. Stefano Grassi & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2013. "It’s all about volatility (of volatility): evidence from a two-factor stochastic volatility model," CREATES Research Papers 2013-03, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    29. Michael McAleer & Marcelo Medeiros, 2008. "Realized Volatility: A Review," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1-3), pages 10-45.
    30. Richard Lajeunesse & Paul Lanoie & Michel Patry, 2001. "Environmental Regulation and Productivity: New Findings on the Porter Analysis," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-53, CIRANO.
    31. Ngo Van Long & Koji Shimomura, 2002. "Relative Wealth, Status Seeking, and Catching Up," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-09, CIRANO.
    32. Julie Doonan & Paul Lanoie & Benoit Laplante, 2002. "Environmental Performance of Canadian Pulp and Paper Plants: Why Some Do Well and Others Do Not ?," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-24, CIRANO.
    33. Simone Bianco & Roberto Reno, 2009. "Unexpected volatility and intraday serial correlation," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 465-475.
    34. Neil Shephard & Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & University of Aarhus, 2001. "Econometric Analysis of Realised Volatility and Its Use in Estimating Stochastic Volatility Models," Economics Series Working Papers 71, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    35. Jim Griffin & Jia Liu & John M. Maheu, 2021. "Bayesian Nonparametric Estimation of Ex Post Variance [Out of Sample Forecasts of Quadratic Variation]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(5), pages 823-859.
    36. Richard T. Baillie & George Kapetanios, 2005. "Testing for Neglected Nonlinearity in Long Memory Models," Working Papers 528, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    37. Markku Lanne, 2006. "A Mixture Multiplicative Error Model for Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 594-616.
    38. Chun Liu & John M. Maheu, 2009. "Forecasting realized volatility: a Bayesian model-averaging approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(5), pages 709-733.
    39. Amir Safari & Detlef Seese, 2010. "Behavior of realized volatility and correlation in exchange markets," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 2(2), pages 73-96, September.
    40. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy, 2007. "Modeling foreign exchange rates with jumps," Working Papers tecipa-279, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    41. Beum-Jo Park, 2011. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets Using a Bivariate Stochastic Volatility Model with Surprising Information," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 37-58, September.
    42. Wang Pu & Yixiang Chen & Feng Ma, 2016. "Forecasting the realized volatility in the Chinese stock market: further evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(33), pages 3116-3130, July.
    43. Chun Liu & John M. Maheu, 2008. "Are There Structural Breaks in Realized Volatility?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 326-360, Summer.
    44. Suhejla Hoiti & Esfandiar Maasoumi & Michael McAleer & Daniel Slottje, 2005. "Measuring the Volatility in U.S. Treasury Benchmarks and Debt Instruments," DEA Working Papers 14, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
    45. Andrada-Félix, Julián & Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2016. "Combining nearest neighbor predictions and model-based predictions of realized variance: Does it pay?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 695-715.
    46. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2001. "Realised power variation and stochastic volatility models," Economics Papers 2001-W18, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    47. Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2014. "Forecasting Realized Volatility with Changes of Regimes," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2014_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", revised Feb 2014.
    48. Hansen, Peter R. & Lunde, Asger, 2006. "Realized Variance and Market Microstructure Noise," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 127-161, April.
    49. Andrea BUCCI, 2017. "Forecasting Realized Volatility A Review," Journal of Advanced Studies in Finance, ASERS Publishing, vol. 8(2), pages 94-138.
    50. Peter Reinhard Hansen & Guillaume Horel, 2009. "Quadratic Variation by Markov Chains," CREATES Research Papers 2009-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    51. Ho‐Chuan (River) Huang & Chien‐Chung Nieh, 2004. "Realize the Realized Stock Index Volatility," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 59-80, March.
    52. Simone Bianco & Roberto Ren'o, 2006. "Unexpected volatility and intraday serial correlation," Papers physics/0610023, arXiv.org.
    53. Jeff Fleming & Chris Kirby, 2013. "Component-Driven Regime-Switching Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 263-301, March.
    54. Yoontae Jeon & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2017. "Time-Varying Window Length for Correlation Forecasts," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-29, December.
    55. Wei Zhang & Pengfei Wang, 2020. "Investor attention and the pricing of cryptocurrency market," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 445-468, July.
    56. Gallo, Giampiero M. & Otranto, Edoardo, 2015. "Forecasting realized volatility with changing average levels," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 620-634.
    57. Antonio N. Bojanic, 2021. "A Markov-Switching Model of Inflation in Bolivia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, March.
    58. Park, Beum-Jo, 2010. "Surprising information, the MDH, and the relationship between volatility and trading volume," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 344-366, August.
    59. Rajesh Mohnot, 2011. "Forecasting Forex Volatility In Turbulent Times," Global Journal of Business Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 5(1), pages 27-38.
    60. Torben G. Andersen & Luca Benzoni, 2008. "Realized volatility," Working Paper Series WP-08-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

  10. John M. Maheu & Tom McCurdy, 2000. "Volatility Dynamics Under Duration-Dependent Mixing," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1427, Econometric Society.

    Cited by:

    1. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy & Yong Song, 2010. "Components of bull and bear markets: bull corrections and bear rallies," Working Papers tecipa-402, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    2. Shyh-Wei Chen & Chung-Hua Shen, 2007. "Evidence of the duration-dependence from the stock markets in the Pacific Rim economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(11), pages 1461-1474.
    3. Timmermann, Allan & Lunde, Asger, 2003. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 4104, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Li, Chenxing & Maheu, John M & Yang, Qiao, 2022. "An Infinite Hidden Markov Model with Stochastic Volatility," MPRA Paper 115456, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Laurent Calvet & Adlai Fisher, 2003. "Regime-Switching and the Estimation of Multifractal Processes," NBER Working Papers 9839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Shamsi Zamenjani, Azam, 2021. "Do financial variables help predict the conditional distribution of the market portfolio?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 327-345.
    7. Suhejla Hoiti & Esfandiar Maasoumi & Michael McAleer & Daniel Slottje, 2005. "Measuring the Volatility in U.S. Treasury Benchmarks and Debt Instruments," DEA Working Papers 14, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
    8. Fernando H.P.S Mendes & João Frois Caldeira & Guilherme Valle Moura, 2019. "Duration-dependent Markov-switching model: an empirical study for the Brazilian business cycle," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 676-685.
    9. Jeff Fleming & Chris Kirby, 2013. "Component-Driven Regime-Switching Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 263-301, March.
    10. Focardi, Sergio M. & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Mazza, Davide, 2019. "Modeling local trends with regime shifting models with time-varying probabilities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

  11. J. Michael Durland & Thomas H. McCurdy, 1993. "Duration Dependent Transitions in a Markov Model of U.S. GNP Growth," Working Paper 887, Economics Department, Queen's University.

    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Balcilar & Reneé van Eyden & Josine Uwilingiye & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "The impact of oil price on South African GDP growth: A Bayesian Markov Switching-VAR analysis," Working Papers 201470, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "Was the recent downturn in US real GDP predictable?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(28), pages 2985-3007, June.
    3. Chen, Lemeng & Lazrak, Skander & Wang, Yan & Welch, Robert, 2019. "Pure momentum is priced," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 75-89.
    4. Rose Cunningham & Ilan Kolet, 2007. "Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada," Staff Working Papers 07-2, Bank of Canada.
    5. Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2011. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 17182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 1997. "Modelling Multiple Regimes in the Business Cycle," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9734/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    7. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
    8. Chien-Hsiu Lin & Shih-Kuei Lin & An-Chi Wu, 2015. "Foreign exchange option pricing in the currency cycle with jump risks," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 755-789, May.
    9. John M. Maheu & Thomas McCurdy, 2001. "Nonlinear Features of Realized FX Volatility," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-42, CIRANO.
    10. Toshiya Ishikawa, 2004. "Technology Diffusion and Business Cycle Asymmetry," DEGIT Conference Papers c009_016, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    11. Layton, Allan P. & Smith, Daniel R., 2007. "Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 855-875, December.
    12. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2014. "Regime Switching Model of US Crude Oil and Stock Market Prices: 1859 to 2013," Working papers 2014-26, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    13. Theobald, Thomas, 2013. "Markov Switching with Endogenous Number of Regimes and Leading Indicators in a Real-Time Business Cycle Forecast," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79911, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Harding, Don, 2008. "Detecting and forecasting business cycle turning points," MPRA Paper 33583, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2006. "Simultaneously modeling the volatility of the growth rate of real GDP and determining business cycle turning points: Evidence from the U.S., Canada and the UK," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 87-102.
    16. Andrew J. Filardo & Stephen F. Gordon, 1993. "Business cycle durations," Research Working Paper 93-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    17. Caruso, Massimo, 2001. "Investment and the persistence of price uncertainty," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 189-217, June.
    18. Chunming Yuan, 2008. "The Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Determinants: Time-Varying Transitional Dynamics," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 09-114, UMBC Department of Economics, revised 01 Nov 2009.
    19. Klaassen, F.J.G.M., 1999. "Long Swings in Exchange Rates : Are They Really in the Data?," Other publications TiSEM a54d23f3-13a8-458c-9f80-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    20. Robert A Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2002. "Growth and volatility regime switching models for New Zealand GDP data," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/08, New Zealand Treasury.
    21. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2010. "Bayesian Estimation of Stochastic-Transition Markov-Switching Models for Business Cycle Analysis," Working Papers 1002, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
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  12. Thomas H. McCurdy & Thansis Stengos, 1991. "A Comparison of Risk-Premium Forecasts implied by Parametric versus Nonparametric Conditional Mean Estimators," Working Paper 843, Economics Department, Queen's University.

    Cited by:

    1. Martin Scheicher, 2000. "Time-varying risk in the German stock market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 70-91.
    2. Jiayuan Zhou & Feiyu Jiang & Ke Zhu & Wai Keung Li, 2019. "Time series models for realized covariance matrices based on the matrix-F distribution," Papers 1903.12077, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2020.
    3. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038, Elsevier.
    4. Paul D. McNelis & G.C. Lim, 1998. "Parameterizing Currency Risk in the EMS: The Irish Pound and Spanish Peseta against the German Mark," International Finance 9805001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bong-Chan, Kho, 1996. "Time-varying risk premia, volatility, and technical trading rule profits: Evidence from foreign currency futures markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 249-290, June.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    7. Robert Engle, 2002. "New frontiers for arch models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 425-446.
    8. Ten-Der Jane & Cherng Ding, 2009. "On the multivariate EGARCH model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(17), pages 1757-1761.

  13. Nicholas Ricketts & Thomas H. McCurdy, 1991. "An International Economy with Country-Specific Money and Productivity Growth Processes," Working Paper 846, Economics Department, Queen's University.

    Cited by:

    1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 1997. "Algorithms for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints," Working Papers (Old Series) 9711, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Kollman, R., 1996. "The Exchange Rate in a Dynamic-Optimizing Current Account Model with Nominal Rigidities: a Quantitative Investigation," Cahiers de recherche 9614, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    3. Ambler, S. & Cardia, E. & Zimmermann, C., 2000. "International Business Cycles: What Are the Facts?," Cahiers de recherche 2000-05, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    4. Albert Marcet & David A. Marshall, 1994. "Solving nonlinear rational expectations models by parameterized expectations: Convergence to stationary solutions," Economics Working Papers 76, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    5. Boileau, Martin, 1999. "Trade in capital goods and the volatility of net exports and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 347-365, August.
    6. Robert Kollmann, 1995. "Consumption, real exchange rates and the structure of international asset markets," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7642, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    7. Ambler, Steve & Cardia, Emanuela & Zimmermann, Christian, 2002. "International transmission of the business cycle in a multi-sector model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 273-300, February.
    8. Kollmann, Robert, 1996. "Incomplete asset markets and the cross-country consumption correlation puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 945-961, May.
    9. Bruno, C., 1997. "International capital movements and the locomotive effect," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 311-316, November.
    10. Miquel Faig, 1997. "INVESTMENT IRREVERSIBILITY IN GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM: Capital Accumulation, Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium," Working Papers faig-97-01, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    11. Steve Ambler & Emanuela Cardia, 1994. "Les modèles réels de la transmission internationale du cycle économique," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 32, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.

  14. Thomas H. McCurdy & Ieuan G. Morgan, 1991. "Single Beta Models and currency Futures Prices," Working Paper 845, Economics Department, Queen's University.

    Cited by:

    1. Stephen J. Taylor, 1992. "Rewards Available to Currency Futures Speculators: Compensation for Risk or Evidence of Inefficient Pricing?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 68(S1), pages 105-116, December.
    2. Cheol‐Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, September.

  15. McCurdy, T.H. & Morgan, I.G., 1989. "Evidence of risk Premia in Foreign Currency Futures Markets," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 130.90, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).

    Cited by:

    1. Richard T. Baillie & William P. Osterberg, 1991. "The risk premium in forward foreign exchange markets and G-3 central bank intervention: evidence of daily effects, 1985-1990," Working Papers (Old Series) 9109, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Napolitano, Oreste, 2000. "The efficiency hypothesis and the role of ‘news’ in the Euro/British pound exchange rate market: an empirical analysis using daily data," ISER Working Paper Series 2000-30, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    3. Menelaos Karanasos, "undated". "The Covariance Structure of Component and Multivariate Garch Models," Discussion Papers 99/12, Department of Economics, University of York.
    4. Menelaos Karanasos, "undated". "Some Exact Formulae for the Constant Correlation and Diagonal M - Garch Models," Discussion Papers 00/14, Department of Economics, University of York.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.

  16. Julian R. Betts & Thomas H. McCurdy, 1988. "Sources of Employment Growth By Occupation and Industry in Canada: A Comparison of Structural Changes in the 1960's and 1970's," Working Paper 730, Economics Department, Queen's University.

    Cited by:

    1. Betts, Julian R., 1989. "Technological Change, Sectoral Shifts and the Distribution of Earnings: A Human Capital Model," Queen's Institute for Economic Research Discussion Papers 275217, Queen's University - Department of Economics.

  17. Thomas H. McCurdy & Ieuan G. Morgan, 1986. "Tests of the Martingale Hypothesis for Foreign Currency Futures with Time-Varying Volatility," Working Paper 663, Economics Department, Queen's University.

    Cited by:

    1. Kodres, Laura E, 1993. "Tests of Unbiasedness in the Foreign Exchange Futures Markets: An Examination of Price Limits and Conditional Heteroscedasticity," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(3), pages 464-490, July.
    2. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889.
    3. Kai-Li Wang & Christopher Fawson & Christopher B. Barrett & James B. McDonald, 2001. "A flexible parametric GARCH model with an application to exchange rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 521-536.
    4. An-Sing Chen, 1997. "The square compass rose: the evidence from Taiwan," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 127-144, June.
    5. Colavecchio, Roberta & Funke, Michael, 2006. "Volatility transmissions between renminbi and Asia-Pacific on-shore and off-shore U.S. dollar futures," BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2006, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    6. Thomas H. McCurdy & Ieuan G. Morgan, 1991. "Single Beta Models and currency Futures Prices," Working Paper 845, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    7. Hsieh, Ping-Hung & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2009. "A censored stochastic volatility approach to the estimation of price limit moves," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 337-351, March.
    8. Chihwa Kao, 2001. "Some New Approaches to Formulate and Estimate Friction-Bernoulli Jump Diffusion and Friction-GARCH," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 35, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    9. Carnero, María Ángeles & Peña, Daniel & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2001. "Outliers and conditional autoregressive heteroscedasticity in time series," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws010704, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    10. Chen, Gongmeng & Kwok, Chuck C. Y. & Rui, Oliver M., 2001. "The day-of-the-week regularity in the stock markets of China," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-163, April.
    11. Bandopadhyaya, Arindam, 1991. "Speculative efficiency and risk premium in the market for foreign exchange : In search of the true specification," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 299-304, July.
    12. Neil Shephard & Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2003. "Likelihood-based estimation of latent generalised ARCH structures," FMG Discussion Papers dp453, Financial Markets Group.
    13. Chionis, Dionysios & MacDonald, Ronald, 1997. "Some tests of market microstructure hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 203-229, October.
    14. Alexakis, Panayotis & Apergis, Nicholas, 1996. "ARCH effects and cointegration: Is the foreign exchange market efficient?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 687-697, May.
    15. Geoffrey F. Loudon & Wing H. Watt & Pradeep K. Yadav, 2000. "An empirical analysis of alternative parametric ARCH models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 117-136.
    16. Nicholas Apergis & Sophia Eleptheriou, 2001. "Stock returns and volatility: Evidence from the Athens Stock market index," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 25(1), pages 50-61, March.
    17. Jingliang Xiao & Robert D Brooks & Wing-Keung Wong, 2009. "Garch And Volume Effects In The Australian Stock Markets," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(01), pages 1-20.
    18. Tim Bollerslev & Ray Y. Chou & Narayanan Jayaraman & Kenneth F. Kroner - L, 1991. "es modéles ARCH en finance : un point sur la théorie et les résultats empiriques," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 24, pages 1-59.
    19. Wei, Steven X., 2002. "A censored-GARCH model of asset returns with price limits," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 197-223, March.
    20. de Roon, Frans A. & Nijman, Theo E. & Veld, Chris, 1998. "Pricing Term Structure Risk in Futures Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 139-157, March.
    21. Wei, K. C. John & Chiang, Raymond, 2004. "A GMM approach for estimation of volatility and regression models when daily prices are subject to price limits," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 445-461, September.
    22. Pan, Ming-Shiun & Chan, Kam C. & C.W. Fok, Robert, 1997. "Do currency futures prices follow random walks?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 1-15, January.
    23. An-Sing Chen, 1997. "Volatility of exchange rate futures and high-low price spreads," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 21(1), pages 33-42, March.
    24. Emmanuel Afuecheta & Idika E. Okorie & Saralees Nadarajah & Geraldine E. Nzeribe, 2024. "Forecasting Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall of Foreign Exchange Rate Volatility of Major African Currencies via GARCH and Dynamic Conditional Correlation Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(1), pages 271-304, January.
    25. Gregory, Allan W, 1989. "A Nonparametric Test for Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity: A Markov-Chain Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(1), pages 107-115, January.
    26. Atreya Chakraborty & John Barkoulas, 1999. "Dynamic futures hedging in currency markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 299-314.
    27. Levy, Tamir & Yagil, Joseph, 2005. "Observed versus theoretical prices under price limit regimes," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 208-237.
    28. Mougoue, Mbodja & Whyte, Ann Marie, 1996. "Stock returns and volatility: An empirical investigation of the German and French equity markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 253-263.
    29. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    30. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    31. Colm Kearney & Ronald Macdonald, 1991. "Efficiency in the Forward Foreign Exchange Market: Weekly Tests of the Australian/US Dollar Exchange Rate January 1984‐March 1987," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 67(3), pages 237-242, September.
    32. Doroodian, K., 1999. "Does exchange rate volatility deter international trade in developing countries?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 465-474.
    33. Lai, Ya-Wen & Windawati, Atif, 2017. "Risk, return, and liquidity during Ramadan: Evidence from Indonesian and Malaysian stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 233-241.
    34. Lei, Li-Fen, 1992. "Using futures and option contracts to manage price and quantity risk: A case of corn farmers in central Iowa," ISU General Staff Papers 1992010108000011326, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    35. Ram Bhar, 1994. "Modelling Yen Futures Return Using Daily Data From IMM and Simex," Working Paper Series 39, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    36. Chen, An-Sing & Leung, Mark T., 1998. "Stochastic properties and predictability of intraday Taiwan exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 207-220.
    37. McCurdy, Thomas H & Morgan, Ieuan G, 1988. "Testing the Martingale Hypothesis in Deutsche Mark Futures with Models Specifying the Form of Heteroscedasticity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 187-202, July-Sept.
    38. Tamir Levy & Joseph Yagil, 2006. "An Empirical Comparison of Price‐Limit Models," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 6(3‐4), pages 157-176, September.
    39. Levy, Tamir & Qadan, Mahmod & Yagil, Joseph, 2013. "Predicting the limit-hit frequency in futures contracts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 141-148.
    40. Baillie, Richard T. & P. Osterberg, William, 1997. "Central bank intervention and risk in the forward market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 483-497, November.

  18. Thomas H. McCurdy & Ieuan G. Morgan, 1985. "Testing the Martingale Hypothesis in the Deutschmark/US dollar Futures and Spot Markets," Working Paper 639, Economics Department, Queen's University.

    Cited by:

    1. Gregory, Allan W, 1989. "A Nonparametric Test for Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity: A Markov-Chain Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(1), pages 107-115, January.
    2. Thomas H. McCurdy & Ieuan G. Morgan, 1986. "Tests of the Martingale Hypothesis for Foreign Currency Futures with Time-Varying Volatility," Working Paper 663, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    3. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, August.

Articles

  1. Jeon, Yoontae & McCurdy, Thomas H. & Zhao, Xiaofei, 2022. "News as sources of jumps in stock returns: Evidence from 21 million news articles for 9000 companies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 1-17.

    Cited by:

    1. Fabozzi, Francesco A. & Nazemi, Abdolreza, 2023. "News-based sentiment and the value premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    2. Zhang, Yuan-Yuan & Zhang, Yue-Jun, 2022. "The impact of institutional analyst forecast divergence on crude oil market: Evidence from the mixed frequency models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    3. Vu Le Tran & Guillaume Coqueret, 2023. "ESG news spillovers across the value chain," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 52(4), pages 677-710, December.
    4. Li, Zhao-Chen & Xie, Chi & Zeng, Zhi-Jian & Wang, Gang-Jin & Zhang, Ting, 2023. "Forecasting global stock market volatilities in an uncertain world," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Vu Le Tran & Guillaume Coqueret, 2023. "ESG news spillovers across the value chain," Post-Print hal-04325746, HAL.
    6. Zhang, Zehua & Zhao, Ran, 2023. "Good volatility, bad volatility, and the cross section of cryptocurrency returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

  2. Maheu, John M. & McCurdy, Thomas H. & Song, Yong, 2021. "Bull and bear markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Mak, Kevin & McCurdy, Thomas H., 2019. "Simulation-based learning using the RIT market simulator and RIT decision cases," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 12-22.

    Cited by:

    1. Heidy Rico & Florentino Rico & Mario de la Puente & Carlos De Oro & Elkyn Lugo, 2022. "SBL Effectiveness in Teaching Entrepreneurship Skills to Young Immigrant Mothers Head of Household in Colombia: An Experimental Study," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-19, March.

  4. Maheu, John M. & McCurdy, Thomas H. & Zhao, Xiaofei, 2013. "Do jumps contribute to the dynamics of the equity premium?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 457-477.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy & Yong Song, 2012. "Components of Bull and Bear Markets: Bull Corrections and Bear Rallies," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 391-403, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Maheu, John M. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 2011. "Do high-frequency measures of volatility improve forecasts of return distributions?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 69-76, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Maheu, John M. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 2009. "How Useful are Historical Data for Forecasting the Long-Run Equity Return Distribution?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27, pages 95-112.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2007. "Components of Market Risk and Return," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 560-590, Fall.

    Cited by:

    1. Mathieu Gatumel & Florian Ielpo, 2011. "The Number of Regimes Across Asset Returns: Identification and Economic Value," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00658540, HAL.
    2. Mark J. Jensen & John M. Maheu, 2014. "Risk, Return and Volatility Feedback: A Bayesian Nonparametric Analysis," Working Paper series 31_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    3. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy & Xiaofei Zhao, 2012. "Do Jumps Contribute to the Dynamics of the Equity Premium?," Working Paper series 47_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    4. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy, 2008. "Do high-frequency measures of volatility improve forecasts of return distributions?," Working Papers tecipa-324, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    5. Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2016. "Combining Markov Switching and Smooth Transition in Modeling Volatility: A Fuzzy Regime MEM," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2016_02, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    6. Shinichiro Shirota & Takayuki Hizu & Yasuhiro Omori, 2013. "Realized Stochastic Volatility with Leverage and Long Memory," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-880, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    7. Mathieu Gatumel & Florian Ielpo, 2011. "The Number of Regimes Across Asset Returns: Identification and Economic Value," Post-Print halshs-00658540, HAL.
    8. Ayakeme Ebiwarefa Whisky & Chinedu B. Ezirim, 2014. "Do Investors Make Abnormal Returns Consistently? An Econometric Investigation in the Nigerian Capital Market," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(2), pages 115-120, April.
    9. Bandi, Federico M. & Perron, Benoît, 2008. "Long-run risk-return trade-offs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 349-374, April.
    10. Okou, Cédric & Jacquier, Éric, 2016. "Horizon effect in the term structure of long-run risk-return trade-offs," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 445-466.
    11. Anderson, Evan W. & Ghysels, Eric & Juergens, Jennifer L., 2009. "The impact of risk and uncertainty on expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 233-263, November.
    12. Benoît Sévi & César Baena, 2013. "The explanatory power of signed jumps for the risk-return tradeoff," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1029-1046.
    13. Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2014. "Forecasting Realized Volatility with Changes of Regimes," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2014_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", revised Feb 2014.
    14. Gallo, Giampiero M. & Otranto, Edoardo, 2015. "Forecasting realized volatility with changing average levels," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 620-634.
    15. Park, Beum-Jo, 2010. "Surprising information, the MDH, and the relationship between volatility and trading volume," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 344-366, August.

  9. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2002. "Nonlinear Features of Realized FX Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 668-681, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Maheu, John M. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 2000. "Volatility dynamics under duration-dependent mixing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 345-372, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Maheu, John M & McCurdy, Thomas H, 2000. "Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 100-112, January.

    Cited by:

    1. J. Cuñado & L. Gil-Alana & F. Gracia, 2009. "US stock market volatility persistence: evidence before and after the burst of the IT bubble," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 233-252, October.
    2. Yu-Lieh Huang, 2009. "Identifying turbulent and calm regimes in stock prices: evidence from the Taiwan stock market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(14), pages 1477-1481.
    3. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2009. "An econometric analysis of some models for constructed binary time series," CAMA Working Papers 2009-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Cem Cakmakli & Richard Paap & Dick J.C. van Dijk, 2011. "Modeling and Estimation of Synchronization in Multistate Markov-Switching Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-002/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Kim, Chang-Jin & Morley, James C. & Nelson, Charles R., 2001. "Does an intertemporal tradeoff between risk and return explain mean reversion in stock prices?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 403-426, September.
    6. Carol Alexander & Anca Dimitriu, 2003. "Equity Indexing: Conitegration and Stock Price Dispersion: A Regime Switiching Approach to market Efficiency," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2003-02, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    7. Mathieu Gatumel & Florian Ielpo, 2011. "The Number of Regimes Across Asset Returns: Identification and Economic Value," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00658540, HAL.
    8. Lorenzo Cerboni Baiardi & Massimo Costabile & Domenico De Giovanni & Fabio Lamantia & Arturo Leccadito & Ivar Massabó & Massimiliano Menzietti & Marco Pirra & Emilio Russo & Alessandro Staino, 2020. "The Dynamics of the S&P 500 under a Crisis Context: Insights from a Three-Regime Switching Model," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-15, July.
    9. Frédérique Bec & Annabelle de Gaye, 2019. "Le modèle autorégressif autorégressif à seuil avec effet rebond : Une application aux rendements boursiers français et américains ," Working Papers hal-02014663, HAL.
    10. Walid, Chkili & Chaker, Aloui & Masood, Omar & Fry, John, 2011. "Stock market volatility and exchange rates in emerging countries: A Markov-state switching approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 272-292, September.
    11. Sebastian Edwards & Javier Gomez Biscarri & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2003. "Stock Market Cycles, Financial Liberalization and Volatility," NBER Working Papers 9817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Erik Kole & Dick Dijk, 2017. "How to Identify and Forecast Bull and Bear Markets?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 120-139, January.
    13. Kuang-Liang Chang & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2021. "How did the asset markets change after the Global Financial Crisis?," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2021_004, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    14. Carol Alexander & Anca Dimitriu, 2005. "Indexing, cointegration and equity market regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(3), pages 213-231.
    15. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2012. "Revisiting the empirical linkages between stock returns and trading volume," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1781-1788.
    16. John M. Maheu & Thomas McCurdy, 2001. "Nonlinear Features of Realized FX Volatility," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-42, CIRANO.
    17. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2010. "Do higher oil prices push the stock market into bear territory?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 490-495, March.
    18. Xiaohong Chen & Lars P. Hansen & Peter G. Hansen, 2020. "Robust Identification of Investor Beliefs," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2236, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    19. Lee, Minhyuk & Song, Jae Wook & Kim, Sondo & Chang, Woojin, 2018. "Asymmetric market efficiency using the index-based asymmetric-MFDFA," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 512(C), pages 1278-1294.
    20. Nyberg, Henri & Pönkä, Harri, 2016. "International sign predictability of stock returns: The role of the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 323-338.
    21. Urom, Christian & Onwuka, Kevin O. & Uma, Kalu E. & Yuni, Denis N., 2020. "Regime dependent effects and cyclical volatility spillover between crude oil price movements and stock returns," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 10-29.
    22. Felix Haase & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2020. "Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets: A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the US," Research Papers in Economics 2020-01, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    23. Vassilios Babalos & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Nikolaos Philippas, 2014. "Revisiting Herding Behavior in REITs: A RegimeSwitching Approach," Working Papers 15-15, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    24. Theobald, Thomas, 2013. "Markov Switching with Endogenous Number of Regimes and Leading Indicators in a Real-Time Business Cycle Forecast," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79911, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    25. Friedrich, Christian & Klein, Melanie, 2009. "On the look-out for the bear: Predicting stock market downturns in G7 countries," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 451, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    26. Balcilar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2013. "Investor herds and regime-switching: Evidence from Gulf Arab stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 295-321.
    27. Rania Jammazi & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2015. "Responses of international stock markets to oil price surges: a regime-switching perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(41), pages 4408-4422, September.
    28. Bulla, Jan, 2009. "Hidden Markov models with t components. Increased persistence and other aspects," MPRA Paper 21830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Javier De Peña & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2002. "Do Spanish Stock Market Prices Follow a Random Walk?," Faculty Working Papers 01/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    30. Kirby, Chris, 2023. "A closer look at the regime-switching evidence of bull and bear markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    31. Carol Alexander & Anca Dimitriu, 2005. "Detecting Switching Strategies in Equity Hedge Funds," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2005-07, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    32. Jiang, Yu & Fang, Xianming, 2015. "Bull, bear or any other states in US stock market?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 54-58.
    33. Liu, Jia & Maheu, John M & Song, Yong, 2023. "Identification and Forecasting of Bull and Bear Markets using Multivariate Returns," MPRA Paper 119515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Warren Thomson, 2016. "Influence of market states on industry returns," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(2), pages 119-134, March.
    35. Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Ogbonna, Ephraim A & Olubusoye, Olusanya E, 2018. "How Persistent and Dependent are Pricing of Bitcoin to other Cryptocurrencies Before and After 2017/18 Crash?," MPRA Paper 91253, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    36. Auer, Benjamin R. & Rottmann, Horst, 2018. "Have capital market anomalies worldwide attenuated in the recent era of high liquidity and trading activity?," Weidener Diskussionspapiere 64, University of Applied Sciences Amberg-Weiden (OTH).
    37. Isah Wada, 2019. "Dynamic Effects of Crude Oil Price Movements: a Sectoral Examination," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 22(71), pages 17-28, March.
    38. Massimo Guidolin, 2011. "Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance," Working Papers 415, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    39. J. V. Andersen & D Sornette, 2003. "Fearless versus Fearful Speculative Financial Bubbles," Papers cond-mat/0311089, arXiv.org.
    40. Li, Ziran & Sun, Jiajing & Wang, Shouyang, 2013. "Amplitude-Duration-Persistence Trade-off Relationship for Long Term Bear Stock Markets," MPRA Paper 54177, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    41. Hammerschmid, Regina & Lohre, Harald, 2018. "Regime shifts and stock return predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 138-160.
    42. Vitor Castro, 2011. "The Portuguese Stock Market Cycle: Chronology and Duration Dependence," GEMF Working Papers 2011-17, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    43. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2009. "Predicting the bear stock market: Macroeconomic variables as leading indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 211-223, February.
    44. Masaru Chiba, 2023. "Robust and efficient specification tests in Markov-switching autoregressive models," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 99-137, April.
    45. Kaihua Deng, 2018. "Another Look at Large-Cap Stock Return Comovement: A Semi-Markov-Switching Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(2), pages 227-262, February.
    46. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Ahmed Khalifa, 2013. "Do Global Shocks Drive Investor Herds in Oil-Rich Frontier Markets?," Working Papers 819, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2013.
    47. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy & Yong Song, 2010. "Components of bull and bear markets: bull corrections and bear rallies," Working Papers tecipa-402, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    48. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2015. "Asset prices regime-switching and the role of inflation targeting monetary policy," MPRA Paper 68666, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    49. Andersen, J.V. & Sornette, D., 2004. "Fearless versus fearful speculative financial bubbles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(3), pages 565-585.
    50. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2022. "Do economic policy uncertainty indices matter in joint volatility cycles between U.S. and Japanese stock markets?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    51. Jung, Sean S. & Chang, Woojin, 2016. "Clustering stocks using partial correlation coefficients," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 410-420.
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    2. Guo, Zhibo & White, Ben & Mugera, Amin, 2013. "Hedge Effectiveness for Western Australia Crops," 2013 Conference (57th), February 5-8, 2013, Sydney, Australia 152154, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    3. Henry L. Bryant & Michael S. Haigh, 2005. "Derivative pricing model and time‐series approaches to hedging: A comparison," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(7), pages 613-641, July.
    4. Mara Madaleno & Carlos Pinho, 2010. "Hedging Performance and Multiscale Relationships in the German Electricity Spot and Futures Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-37, December.
    5. Amir H. Alizadeh & Nikos Nomikos, 2011. "An Investigation into the Effect of Risk Management on the Profitability of Shipping Investment and Operations," Chapters, in: Kevin Cullinane (ed.), International Handbook of Maritime Economics, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
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    8. Michael S. Haigh, 2005. "Conditional volatility forecasting in a dynamic hedging model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 155-172.
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    11. Lumengo Bonga-Bonga & Ekerete Umoetok, 2016. "The effectiveness of index futures hedging in emerging markets during the crisis period of 2008-2010: Evidence from South Africa," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(42), pages 3999-4018, September.
    12. Carol Alexander & Marcel Prokopczuk & Anannit Sumawon, 2012. "The (De)merits of Minimum-Variance Hedging: Application to the Crack Spread," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2012-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    13. Thomas Conlon & John Cotter & Ramazan Gençay, 2016. "Commodity futures hedging, risk aversion and the hedging horizon," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(15), pages 1534-1560, December.
    14. Arumugam, Devika, 2023. "Algorithmic trading: Intraday profitability and trading behavior," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
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    21. Lawrence Kryzanowski & Jie Zhang & Rui Zhong, 2021. "Currency hedging and quantitative easing: Evidence from global bond markets," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 555-597, June.
    22. Su, EnDer, 2017. "Stock index hedging using a trend and volatility regime-switching model involving hedging cost," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 233-254.
    23. Demiralay, Sercan & Gencer, Hatice Gaye & Bayraci, Selcuk, 2022. "Carbon credit futures as an emerging asset: Hedging, diversification and downside risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
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    26. Michael S. Haigh & Matthew T. Holt, 2002. "Combining time-varying and dynamic multi-period optimal hedging models," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 29(4), pages 471-500, December.
    27. Tonsor, Glynn T., 2008. "Hedging in Presence of Market Access Risk," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37621, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    28. Kuang-Liang Chang, 2011. "The optimal value-at-risk hedging strategy under bivariate regime switching ARCH framework," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(21), pages 2627-2640.
    29. Michael S. Haigh & Matthew T. Holt, 2002. "Crack spread hedging: accounting for time-varying volatility spillovers in the energy futures markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 269-289.
    30. Kin-Yip Ho & Albert K Tsui, 2008. "Volatility Dynamics in Foreign Exchange Rates : Further Evidence from the Malaysian Ringgit and Singapore Dollar," Finance Working Papers 22571, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    31. Liu, Xiaochun & Jacobsen, Brian, 2011. "The Dynamic International Optimal Hedge Ratio," MPRA Paper 35260, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Haigh, Michael S. & Holt, Matthew T., 1999. "Volatility Spillovers Between Foreign Exchange, Commodity And Freight Futures Prices: Implications For Hedging Strategies," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21625, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    33. Viviana Fernández, 2007. "Multi-period hedge ratios for a multi-asset portfolio when accounting for returns comovement," Documentos de Trabajo 242, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    34. Ismael Pérez-Franco & Esteban Otto Thomasz & Gonzalo Rondinone & Agustín García-García, 2022. "Feed price risk management for sheep production in Spain: a composite future cross-hedging strategy," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(2), pages 137-163, June.
    35. Hsiu‐Chuan Lee & Cheng‐Yi Chien & Tzu‐Hsiang Liao, 2009. "Determination of stock closing prices and hedging performance with stock indices futures," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 49(4), pages 827-847, December.
    36. Opie, Wei & Riddiough, Steven J., 2020. "Global currency hedging with common risk factors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(3), pages 780-805.
    37. Rozaimah Zainudin & Roselee Shah Shaharudin, 2011. "Multi Mean Garch Approach to Evaluating Hedging Performance in the Crude Palm Oil Futures Market," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 7(1), pages 111-130.
    38. Haigh, Michael S. & Holt, Matthew T., 2002. "Hedging Foreign Currency, Freight And Commodity Futures Portfolios: A Note," Working Papers 28573, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    39. Habibeh Sherafatmand & Saeed Yazdani, 2014. "The management of price risk in Iranian dates: An application of futures instruments," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-12, December.
    40. An-Sing Chen & Yan-Zhen Liu, 2008. "Enhancing hedging performance with the spanning polynomial projection," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 605-617.
    41. Kotkatvuori-Örnberg, Juha, 2016. "Dynamic conditional copula correlation and optimal hedge ratios with currency futures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 60-69.
    42. Paravee Maneejuk & Nootchanat Pirabun & Suphawit Singjai & Woraphon Yamaka, 2021. "Currency Hedging Strategies Using Histogram-Valued Data: Bivariate Markov Switching GARCH Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(21), pages 1-20, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joëlle Miffre, 2004. "The Conditional Price of Basis Risk: An Investigation Using Foreign Exchange Instruments," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(7‐8), pages 1043-1068, September.
    2. Wang, Changyun, 2004. "Futures trading activity and predictable foreign exchange market movements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1023-1041, May.
    3. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Hunter, Delroy M., 2008. "Can hedging tell the full story? Reconciling differences in United States aggregate- and industry-level exchange rate risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 169-196, November.
    4. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 1996. "Time-Varying Risk Premia in the Foreign Currency Futures Basis," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 281., Boston College Department of Economics.
    5. David Watt, 1997. "Canadian Short-Term Interest Rates and the BAX Futures Markets: An Analysis of the Impact of Volatility on Hedging Activity and the Correlation of Returns Between Markets," Staff Working Papers 97-18, Bank of Canada.
    6. Bakshi, Gurdip & Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2008. "Stochastic risk premiums, stochastic skewness in currency options, and stochastic discount factors in international economies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 132-156, January.
    7. Wang, Steven Shuye & Jiang, Li, 2004. "Location of trade, ownership restrictions, and market illiquidity: Examining Chinese A- and H-shares," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1273-1297, June.
    8. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Sources of Risk and Expected Returns in Global Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 4622, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Gagnon, Louis & Lypny, Gregory J. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 1998. "Hedging foreign currency portfolios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 197-220, September.
    10. Halil Ibrahim Bulut, 2005. "Mudaraba-Venture Capital Closed-end Mutual Funds and Mudaraba-Venture Capital Open-end Mutual Funds," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 8(30), pages 31-58.
    11. John M Maheu & Azam Shamsi Zamenjani, 2021. "Nonparametric Dynamic Conditional Beta," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 583-613.
    12. Eduardo José Araújo Lima & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2008. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Relationship between the Random Walk Hypothesis and Official Interventions," Working Papers Series 173, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    13. Bong-Chan, Kho, 1996. "Time-varying risk premia, volatility, and technical trading rule profits: Evidence from foreign currency futures markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 249-290, June.
    14. Frank Coggins & Marie‐Claude Beaulieu & Michel Gendron, 2009. "Mutual Fund Daily Conditional Performance," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 95-122, June.
    15. Sapp, Stephen, 2004. "Are all Central Bank interventions created equal? An empirical investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 443-474, March.
    16. Sadýk Cukur & Yusuf Volkan Topuz, 2005. "Exchange Rate Exposure: An Empirical Application for Textile Industry on the Istanbul Stock Exchange," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 8(30), pages 19-30.
    17. Floros, Christos & Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2013. "Financial crises, the decoupling–recoupling hypothesis, and the risk premium on the Greek stock index futures market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 166-173.
    18. Oral Erdogan & Harald Schmidbauer, 2006. "Investors’ Selection Between Two Financial Markets: A Conditional Correlation Approach," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 8(30), pages 1-18.
    19. Tom A. FEARNLEY, 2002. "Estimation of an International Capital Asset Pricing Model with Stocks and Government Bonds," FAME Research Paper Series rp95, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    20. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Hunter, Delroy M., 2008. "Does hedging tell the full story? Reconciling differences in US aggregate and industry-level exchange rate risk premia," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2008, Bank of Finland.
    21. Kumar, Satish & Trück, Stefan, 2014. "Unbiasedness and risk premiums in the Indian currency futures market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 13-32.
    22. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 2001. "A multivariate GARCH in mean approach to testing uncovered interest parity: evidence from Asia-Pacific foreign exchange markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 441-460.

  16. McCurdy, Thomas H. & Stengos, Thanasis, 1992. "A comparison of risk-premium forecasts implied by parametric versus nonparametric conditional mean estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 225-244.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  17. THOMAS H. McCURDY & IEUAN G. MORGAN, 1992. "Single Beta Models and Currency Futures Prices," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 68(S1), pages 117-129, December.
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  18. Thomas H. McCurdy & Ieuan G. Morgan, 1991. "Tests for a Systematic Risk Component in Deviations From Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 587-602.

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    1. Malliaropulos, Dimitrios, 1997. "A multivariate GARCH model of risk premia in foreign exchange markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 61-79, January.
    2. Dumas, B. & Solnik, B., 1993. "The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk," Weiss Center Working Papers 93-9, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
    3. K.C. Chan & G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz, 1992. "Global Financial Markets and the Risk Premium on U.S. Equity," NBER Working Papers 4074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jeannine Bailliu, 2000. "Private Capital Flows, Financial Development, and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," Staff Working Papers 00-15, Bank of Canada.
    5. Jerome Henry & Jens Weidmann, 2005. "The French-German Interest Rate Differential Since German," International Finance 0503009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Wang, Changyun, 2004. "Futures trading activity and predictable foreign exchange market movements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1023-1041, May.
    7. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Hunter, Delroy M., 2008. "Can hedging tell the full story? Reconciling differences in United States aggregate- and industry-level exchange rate risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 169-196, November.
    8. Geyikçi, Utku Bora & Özyıldırım, Süheyla, 2021. "To hedge or not to hedge: Carry trade dynamics in the emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    9. David Watt, 1997. "Canadian Short-Term Interest Rates and the BAX Futures Markets: An Analysis of the Impact of Volatility on Hedging Activity and the Correlation of Returns Between Markets," Staff Working Papers 97-18, Bank of Canada.
    10. Andrei Semenov, 2003. "High-Order Consumption Moments and Asset Pricing," Working Papers 2003_4, York University, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2005.
    11. Emma M. Iglesias & Garry D. A. Phillips, 2012. "Estimation, Testing, and Finite Sample Properties of Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimators in GARCH-M Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 532-557, September.
    12. Charles Engel, 1995. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Bartov, Eli & Bodnar, Gordon M. & Kaul, Aditya, 1996. "Exchange rate variability and the riskiness of U.S. multinational firms: Evidence from the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 105-132, September.
    14. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Hunter, Delroy M., 2002. "Emerging market liberalization and the impact on uncovered interest rate parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 931-956, November.
    15. Christiansen, Charlotte & Ranaldo, Angelo & Söderlind, Paul, 2011. "The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(4), pages 1107-1125, August.
    16. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 1999. "Time-varying risk premia in foreign exchange and equity markets: evidence from Asia-Pacific countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(3-4), pages 291-316, November.
    17. Beaulieu, Marie-Claude, 1998. "Time to maturity in the basis of stock market indices: Evidence from the S&P 500 and the MMI," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 177-195, September.
    18. Paul D. McNelis & G.C. Lim, 1998. "Parameterizing Currency Risk in the EMS: The Irish Pound and Spanish Peseta against the German Mark," International Finance 9805001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Lei Pan & Svetlana Maslyuk-Escobedo & Vinod Mishra, 2019. "Carry Trade Returns and Commodity Prices under Capital and Interest Rate Controls: Empirical Evidence from China," Monash Economics Working Papers 16-18, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    20. Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2007. "Safe Haven Currencies," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2007 2007-22, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    21. Rene M. Stulz, 1994. "International Portfolio Choice and Asset Pricing: An Integrative Survey," NBER Working Papers 4645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Menelaos Karanasos, "undated". "The Covariance Structure of Component and Multivariate Garch Models," Discussion Papers 99/12, Department of Economics, University of York.
    23. Menelaos Karanasos, "undated". "Some Exact Formulae for the Constant Correlation and Diagonal M - Garch Models," Discussion Papers 00/14, Department of Economics, University of York.
    24. Bong-Chan, Kho, 1996. "Time-varying risk premia, volatility, and technical trading rule profits: Evidence from foreign currency futures markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 249-290, June.
    25. El Bouhadi, Abdelhamid & Achibane, Khalid, 2009. "The Predictive Power of Conditional Models: What Lessons to Draw with Financial Crisis in the Case of Pre-Emerging Capital Markets?," MPRA Paper 19482, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Henry, O.T., 1998. "The Volatility of U.S. Term Structure Term Premia 1952-1991," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 620, The University of Melbourne.
    27. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 2004. "Looking for risk premium and contagion in Asia-Pacific foreign exchange markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 381-409.
    28. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 2003. "Can currency risk be a source of risk premium in explaining forward premium puzzle?: Evidence from Asia-Pacific forward exchange markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 291-311, October.
    29. Hong G. Min, 1998. "Dynamic capita mobility, capital market risk, and exchange rate misalignment : evidence from seven Asian Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2025, The World Bank.
    30. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Hunter, Delroy M., 2008. "Does hedging tell the full story? Reconciling differences in US aggregate and industry-level exchange rate risk premia," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2008, Bank of Finland.
    31. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 2001. "A multivariate GARCH in mean approach to testing uncovered interest parity: evidence from Asia-Pacific foreign exchange markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 441-460.

  19. McCurdy, Thomas H & Morgan, Ieuan G, 1988. "Testing the Martingale Hypothesis in Deutsche Mark Futures with Models Specifying the Form of Heteroscedasticity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 187-202, July-Sept.

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    1. Owen F. Humpage & William P. Osterberg, 1990. "Intervention and the foreign exchange risk premium: an empirical investigation of daily effects," Working Papers (Old Series) 9009, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Fiorentini,G. & Calzolari,G. & Panattoni,L., 1995. "Analytic Derivatives and the Computation of Garch Estimates," Papers 9519, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
    3. M A Sánchez-Granero & J E Trinidad-Segovia & J Clara-Rahola & A M Puertas & F J De las Nieves, 2017. "A model for foreign exchange markets based on glassy Brownian systems," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(12), pages 1-22, December.
    4. Colavecchio, Roberta & Funke, Michael, 2006. "Volatility transmissions between renminbi and Asia-Pacific on-shore and off-shore U.S. dollar futures," BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2006, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    5. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev, 1997. "Answering the Critics: Yes, ARCH Models Do Provide Good Volatility Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 6023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Thomas H. McCurdy & Ieuan G. Morgan, 1991. "Single Beta Models and currency Futures Prices," Working Paper 845, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    7. Bollerslev, T. & Ghysels, E., 1994. "Periodic Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Cahiers de recherche 9408, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    8. David Watt, 1997. "Canadian Short-Term Interest Rates and the BAX Futures Markets: An Analysis of the Impact of Volatility on Hedging Activity and the Correlation of Returns Between Markets," Staff Working Papers 97-18, Bank of Canada.
    9. John Cotter, 2011. "Tail Behaviour of the Euro," Papers 1103.5418, arXiv.org.
    10. Panayiotis Alexakis & Anna Vasila, 2010. "Equity Interconnections in Major European Markets," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 109-132.
    11. Lee, Wayne Y. & Jiang, Christine X. & Indro, Daniel C., 2002. "Stock market volatility, excess returns, and the role of investor sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(12), pages 2277-2299.
    12. Ito, Takatoshi & Engle, Robert F. & Lin, Wen-Ling, 1992. "Where does the meteor shower come from? : The role of stochastic policy coordination," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 221-240, May.
    13. Mun, Kyung-Chun & Emir Morgan, George, 2003. "Bank foreign exchange and interest rate risk management: simultaneous versus separate hedging strategies," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 277-297, July.
    14. Tim Bollerslev & Ray Y. Chou & Narayanan Jayaraman & Kenneth F. Kroner - L, 1991. "es modéles ARCH en finance : un point sur la théorie et les résultats empiriques," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 24, pages 1-59.
    15. Guidi, Francesco, 2010. "Modelling and forecasting volatility of East Asian Newly Industrialized Countries and Japan stock markets with non-linear models," MPRA Paper 19851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Jurado Pedroza Wilfrido, 2021. "Around-the-Clock USD/MXN Volatility: Macroeconomic Announcement Spillovers and FX Market Intervention Mechanisms," Working Papers 2021-05, Banco de México.
    17. Barbi, Massimiliano & Romagnoli, Silvia, 2018. "Skewness, basis risk, and optimal futures demand," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 14-29.
    18. Leung, Henry & Schiereck, Dirk & Schroeder, Florian, 2017. "Volatility spillovers and determinants of contagion: Exchange rate and equity markets during crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 169-180.
    19. David Chappell & Lindsay Chant, 1998. "A non-linear time series model for the South Korean Won/British pound exchange rate : 1.1.97-9.30.98," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 65-75.
    20. Murinde V. & Poshakwala S., 2001. "Volatility in the Emerging Stock Markets in Central and Eastern Europe: Evidence on Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia and Slovakia," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3-4), pages 73-102, July - De.
    21. Atreya Chakraborty & John Barkoulas, 1999. "Dynamic futures hedging in currency markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 299-314.
    22. James J. Kung & E-Ching Wu, 2014. "Which Random Walk Best Portrays the Dynamics of the Japanese Yen?," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3-4), pages 153-169, December.
    23. Gencay, Ramazan, 1999. "Linear, non-linear and essential foreign exchange rate prediction with simple technical trading rules," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 91-107, February.
    24. Bhattacharyya, Malay & Chaudhary, Abhishek & Yadav, Gaurav, 2008. "Conditional VaR estimation using Pearson's type IV distribution," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 386-397, December.
    25. Liu, Xiaochun & Jacobsen, Brian, 2011. "The Dynamic International Optimal Hedge Ratio," MPRA Paper 35260, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    27. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    28. Ken Johnston & David Carter & John Hatem, 2005. "Exchange rates, and fundamental variables: a semi-parametric analysis of binary choice," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(16), pages 1915-1924.
    29. Maria Aguirre & Reza Saidi, 2000. "Volatility behavior of exchange rate future contracts," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 28(4), pages 396-411, December.
    30. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Darby, Julia, 2012. "Forecasting Volatility in Developing Countries' Nominal Exchange Returns," MPRA Paper 40875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. Ram Bhar, 1994. "Modelling Yen Futures Return Using Daily Data From IMM and Simex," Working Paper Series 39, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    32. Mougoué, Mbodja & Aggarwal, Raj, 2011. "Trading volume and exchange rate volatility: Evidence for the sequential arrival of information hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2690-2703, October.
    33. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
    34. Jin, Hyun Joung, 2008. "A Long Memory Conditional Variance Model for International Grain Markets," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 31(2), pages 1-23, May.
    35. Owen F. Humpage & William P. Osterberg, 1992. "New results on the impact of central-bank intervention on deviations from uncovered interest parity," Working Papers (Old Series) 9207, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

  20. McCurdy, Thomas H. & Morgan, Ieuan G., 1987. "Tests of the martingale hypothesis for foreign currency futures with time-varying volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 131-148.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  21. Gregory, Allan W. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 1986. "The unbiasedness hypothesis in the forward foreign exchange market: A specification analysis with application to France, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and West Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 365-381, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Vajanne, Laura, . "The Exchange Rate Under Target Zones," ETLA A, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 16.
    2. Azzam, Islam & El-Masry, Ahmed A. & Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Foreign exchange market efficiency during COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 717-730.
    3. Thomas H. McCurdy & Ieuan G. Morgan, 1986. "Tests of the Martingale Hypothesis for Foreign Currency Futures with Time-Varying Volatility," Working Paper 663, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    4. McCurdy, Thomas H & Morgan, Ieuan G, 1988. "Testing the Martingale Hypothesis in Deutsche Mark Futures with Models Specifying the Form of Heteroscedasticity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 187-202, July-Sept.
    5. Marco Tronzano, 1992. "Efficiency in German and Japanese foreign exchange markets: Evidence from cointegration techniques," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 128(1), pages 1-20, March.

  22. Gregory, Allan W. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 1984. "Testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in the forward foreign exchange market: A specification analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 357-368, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Gregory, Allan W. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 1986. "The unbiasedness hypothesis in the forward foreign exchange market: A specification analysis with application to France, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and West Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 365-381, April.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1986. "The implications of mean-variance optimization for four questions in international macroeconomics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1, Supple), pages 53-75, March.
    3. Clarida, Richard & Taylor, Mark P, 1993. "The Term Structure of Forward Exchange Premia and the Forecastability of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting the Errors," CEPR Discussion Papers 773, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Raj Aggarwal & Brian M. Lucey & Sunil K. Mohanty, 2006. "The Forward Exchange Rate Bias Puzzle: Evidence from New Cointegration Tests," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp123, IIIS.
    5. Villanueva, O. Miguel, 2007. "Spot-forward cointegration, structural breaks and FX market unbiasedness," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 58-78, February.
    6. Richard H. Clarida & Mark P. Taylor, 1997. "The Term Structure Of Forward Exchange Premiums And The Forecastability Of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting The Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(3), pages 353-361, August.
    7. Takatoshi Ito, 1984. "Use of (Time-Domain) Vector Autoregressions to Test Uncovered Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 1493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Thomas Chiang & Thomas Hindelang, 1988. "Forward rate, spot rate and risk premium: An empirical analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 124(1), pages 74-88, March.
    9. Raj Aggarwal & Winston T. Lin & Sunil K. Mohanty, 2008. "Are Forward Exchange Rates Rational Forecasts of Future Spot Rates? An Improved Econometric Analysis for the Major Currencies," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 12(1-2), pages 1-20, March-Jun.
    10. Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 23-42, March.
    11. Bhatti, Razzaque H., 2014. "The existence of uncovered interest parity in the CIS countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 227-241.
    12. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1986. "Interpreting Tests of Forward Discount Bias Using Survey Data on Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Phungo, Muka & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2019. "An analysis of the unbiased forward rate hypothesis in developed and emerging economies," MPRA Paper 92222, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. HeeJoon Kang, 1992. "Forward exchange rates as unbiased predictors of future spot rates a review and re-interpretation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 215-232, June.
    15. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J., 1993. "On biases in the measurement of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 115-138, April.
    16. Gregory, Allan W, 1989. "A Nonparametric Test for Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity: A Markov-Chain Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(1), pages 107-115, January.
    17. Lars Hörngren & Anders Vredin, 1989. "Exchange risk premia in a currency basket system," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 125(2), pages 311-325, June.
    18. Winston T. Lin & Hong-Jen Lin & Yueh H. Chen, 2002. "The Dynamics and Stochastics of Currency Betas Based on the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Foreign Exchange Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 6(3-4), pages 167-195, September.
    19. Peggy Swanson, 1998. "Spot and forward exchange rates as predictors of future spot rates: trends in exchange market value and the contribution of new information," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 22(2), pages 129-138, June.
    20. Thomas C. Chiang, 1986. "Empirical Analysis On The Predictors Of Future Spot Rates," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 9(2), pages 153-162, June.
    21. Wang, Peijie & Jones, Trefor, 2002. "Testing for efficiency and rationality in foreign exchange markets--a review of the literature and research on foreign exchange market efficiency and rationality with comments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 223-239, April.
    22. Winston T. Lin, 1999. "Dynamic and Stochastic Instability and the Unbiased Forward Rate Hypothesis: A Variable Mean Response Approach," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 3(3), pages 173-221, September.

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