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Pricing Term Structure Risk in Futures Markets

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  • de Roon, Frans A.
  • Nijman, Theo E.
  • Veld, Chris

Abstract

One-period expected returns on futures contracts with different maturities differ because of risk premia in the spreads between futures and spot prices. We analyze the expected returns for futures contracts with different maturities using the information that is present in the current term structure of futures prices. A simple affine one-factor model that implies a constant covariance between the pricing kernel and the cost-of-carry cannot be rejected for heating oil and German Mark futures contracts. For gold and soybean futures, the risk premia depend on the slope of the current term structure of futures prices, while for live cattle futures, the evidence is mixed.

Suggested Citation

  • de Roon, Frans A. & Nijman, Theo E. & Veld, Chris, 1998. "Pricing Term Structure Risk in Futures Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 139-157, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:33:y:1998:i:01:p:139-157_02
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    Cited by:

    1. Patricia Fraser & Andrew McKaig, 2001. "Basis variation and a common source of risk: evidence from UK futures markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 39-62.
    2. Shi, Wei & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Dietz, Sarah N., 2005. "Wheat Forward Contract Pricing: Evidence on Forecast Power and Risk Premia," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19043, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    3. van den Goorbergh, R.W.J., 2004. "Essays on optimal hedging and investment strategies and on derivative pricing," Other publications TiSEM 4b4b16af-8621-463f-bbfa-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Ahmed, Shamim & Tsvetanov, Daniel, 2016. "The predictive performance of commodity futures risk factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 20-36.
    5. Thomas Bollinger & Axel Kind, 2015. "Risk Premiums in the Cross-Section of Commodity Convenience Yields," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2015-17, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    6. Daejin Kim, 2025. "Term Structure and Risk Premiums of Commodity Futures With Linear Regressions," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(2), pages 118-142, February.
    7. Brooks, Robert & El-Keib, A. A., 1998. "A life-cycle view of electricity futures contracts," Journal of Energy Finance & Development, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 171-183.
    8. Kumar, Satish & Trück, Stefan, 2014. "Unbiasedness and risk premiums in the Indian currency futures market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 13-32.

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