Stock market bubbles, inflation and investment risk
This paper proposes an autoregressive regime-switching model of stock price dynamics in which the process creates pricing bubbles in one regime while error-correction prevails in the other. In the bubble regime the stock price depends negatively on inflation. In the error-correction regime it depends on the price-dividend ratio. We find that the probability of regime-switch depends on exogenous inflation and lagged price. The model is consistent with Shleifer and Vishny's theoretical noise trader and arbitrageur model and Modigliani's inflation illusion phenomenon. The results emphasize the importance of inflation and the price-dividend ratio when assessing investment risk.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lei, V. & Noussair, C. & Plott, C.R., 1998.
"Non-Speculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality Vs. Actual Irrationality,"
Purdue University Economics Working Papers
1120, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
- Lei, Vivian & Noussair, Charles N & Plott, Charles R, 2001. "Nonspeculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality vs. Actual Irrationality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 831-59, July.
- West, Kenneth D, 1988.
"Dividend Innovations and Stock Price Volatility,"
Econometric Society, vol. 56(1), pages 37-61, January.
- Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2002.
"Bubbles and crashes,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
24905, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Andrei Shleifer ad Robert W. Vishny, 1995.
"The Limits of Arbitrage,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1725, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992.
"Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
- Manuel S. Santos & Michael Woodford, 1997.
"Rational Asset Pricing Bubbles,"
Econometric Society, vol. 65(1), pages 19-58, January.
- Manuel S. Santos & Michael Woodford, 1993. "Rational Asset Pricing Bubbles," Working Papers 9304, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
- Woodford, Michael & Santos, Manuel S., 1995. "Rational asset pricing bubbles," UC3M Working papers. Economics 3913, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
- Robert J. Shiller, 1996.
"Why Do People Dislike Inflation?,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1115, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Anders Rahbek & Neil Shephard, 2001.
"Autoregressive conditional root model,"
2002-W7, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, revised 01 Feb 2002.
- Filardo, Andrew J, 1994.
"Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, July.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Filardo JBES 1994 paper with time-varying Markov switching," Statistical Software Components RTZ00059, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Andrew J. Filardo, 1993. "Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics," Research Working Paper 93-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-51, September.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel, 2004. "Hedge Funds and the Technology Bubble," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(5), pages 2013-2040, October.
- Robert B. Barsky & J. Bradford De Long, 1989.
"Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century,"
NBER Working Papers
3171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hess, Martin K., 2003. "What drives Markov regime-switching behavior of stock markets? The Swiss case," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 527-543.
- Steven A. Sharpe, 2002.
"Reexamining Stock Valuation and Inflation: The Implications Of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 632-648, November.
- Steven A. Sharpe, 2001. "Reexamining stock valuation and inflation: the implications of analysts' earnings forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- McMillan, David G., 2004. "Nonlinear predictability of short-run deviations in UK stock market returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 149-154, August.
- Black, Fischer, 1986. " Noise," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 529-43, July.
- Ritter, Jay R. & Warr, Richard S., 2002. "The Decline of Inflation and the Bull Market of 1982–1999," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(01), pages 29-61, March.
- Maheu, John M & McCurdy, Thomas H, 2000. "Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 100-112, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:17:y:2008:i:3:p:592-603. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.