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Bull and Bear Markets During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author

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  • Maheu, John M
  • McCurdy, Thomas H
  • Song, Yong

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe disruption to economic and financial activity worldwide. We assess what happened to the aggregate U.S. stock market during this period, including implications for both short and long-horizon investors. Using the model of Maheu, McCurdy and Song (2012), we provide smoothed estimates and out-of-sample forecasts associated with stock market dynamics during the pandemic. We identify bull and bear market regimes including their bull correction and bear rally components, demonstrate the model's performance in capturing periods of significant regime change, and provide forecasts that improve risk management and investment decisions. The paper concludes with out-of-sample forecasts of market states one year ahead.

Suggested Citation

  • Maheu, John M & McCurdy, Thomas H & Song, Yong, 2020. "Bull and Bear Markets During the COVID-19 Pandemic," MPRA Paper 104504, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:104504
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lunde A. & Timmermann A., 2004. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 253-273, July.
    2. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy & Yong Song, 2012. "Components of Bull and Bear Markets: Bull Corrections and Bear Rallies," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 391-403, February.
    3. Chib, Siddhartha, 1996. "Calculating posterior distributions and modal estimates in Markov mixture models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 79-97, November.
    4. Schwert, G William, 1990. "Indexes of U.S. Stock Prices from 1802 to 1987," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 399-426, July.
    5. Adrian R. Pagan & Kirill A. Sossounov, 2003. "A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 23-46.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Iyer, Subramanian Rama & Simkins, Betty J., 2022. "COVID-19 and the Economy: Summary of research and future directions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
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    3. Kirby, Chris, 2023. "A closer look at the regime-switching evidence of bull and bear markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    4. Liang, Chao & Xu, Yongan & Wang, Jianqiong & Yang, Mo, 2022. "Whether dimensionality reduction techniques can improve the ability of sentiment proxies to predict stock market returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    predictive density; long-horizon returns; Markov switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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