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Time-Varying Crash Risk: The Role of Stock Market Liquidity

Listed author(s):
  • Peter Christoffersen
  • Bruno Feunou
  • Yoontae Jeon
  • Chayawat Ornthanalai

We estimate a continuous-time model with stochastic volatility and dynamic crash probability for the S&P 500 index and find that market illiquidity dominates other factors in explaining the stock market crash risk. While the crash probability is time-varying, its dynamic depends only weakly on return variance once we include market illiquidity as an economic variable in the model. This finding suggests that the relationship between variance and jump risk found in the literature is largely due to their common exposure to market liquidity risk. Our study highlights the importance of equity market frictions in index return dynamics and explains why prior studies find that crash risk increases with market uncertainty level.

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File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/swp2016-35.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Staff Working Papers with number 16-35.

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Length: 57 pages
Date of creation: 2016
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:16-35
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  1. Peter Christoffersen & Steven Heston & Kris Jacobs, 2009. "The Shape and Term Structure of the Index Option Smirk: Why Multifactor Stochastic Volatility Models Work So Well," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(12), pages 1914-1932, December.
  2. Chang, Bo Young & Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris, 2013. "Market skewness risk and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 46-68.
  3. Maheu, John M. & McCurdy, Thomas H. & Zhao, Xiaofei, 2013. "Do jumps contribute to the dynamics of the equity premium?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 457-477.
  4. Lee, Charles M C & Mucklow, Belinda & Ready, Mark J, 1993. "Spreads, Depths, and the Impact of Earnings Information: An Intraday Analysis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 345-374.
  5. Ornthanalai, Chayawat, 2014. "Lévy jump risk: Evidence from options and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 69-90.
  6. Daniel Bradley & Jonathan Clarke & Suzanne Lee & Chayawat Ornthanalai, 2014. "Are Analysts’ Recommendations Informative? Intraday Evidence on the Impact of Time Stamp Delays," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 645-673, April.
  7. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
  8. Torben G. Andersen & Luca Benzoni & Jesper Lund, 2002. "An Empirical Investigation of Continuous-Time Equity Return Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1239-1284, June.
  9. Bjørn Eraker, 2004. "Do Stock Prices and Volatility Jump? Reconciling Evidence from Spot and Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1367-1404, June.
  10. Yacine A\"it-Sahalia & Jialin Yu, 2009. "High frequency market microstructure noise estimates and liquidity measures," Papers 0906.1444, arXiv.org.
  11. Cecilia Mancini, 2009. "Non-parametric Threshold Estimation for Models with Stochastic Diffusion Coefficient and Jumps," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 36(2), pages 270-296.
  12. Egloff, Daniel & Leippold, Markus & Wu, Liuren, 2010. "The Term Structure of Variance Swap Rates and Optimal Variance Swap Investments," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(05), pages 1279-1310, October.
  13. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
  14. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
  15. Roman Kozhan & Anthony Neuberger & Paul Schneider, 2013. "The Skew Risk Premium in the Equity Index Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(9), pages 2174-2203.
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