IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2601.08962.html

Warp speed price moves: Jumps after earnings announcements

Author

Listed:
  • Kim Christensen
  • Allan Timmermann
  • Bezirgen Veliyev

Abstract

Corporate earnings announcements unpack large bundles of public information that should, in efficient markets, trigger jumps in stock prices. Testing this implication is difficult in practice, as it requires noisy high-frequency data from after-hours markets, where most earnings announcements are released. Using a unique dataset and a new microstructure noise-robust jump test, we show that earnings announcements almost always induce jumps in the stock price of announcing firms. They also significantly raise the probability of price co-jumps in non-announcing firms and the market. We find that returns from a post-announcement trading strategy are consistent with efficient price formation after 2016.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim Christensen & Allan Timmermann & Bezirgen Veliyev, 2026. "Warp speed price moves: Jumps after earnings announcements," Papers 2601.08962, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2601.08962
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2601.08962
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Flood, Mark D, et al, 1999. "Quote Disclosure and Price Discovery in Multiple-Dealer Financial Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 37-59.
    2. O. E. Barndorff-Nielsen & P. Reinhard Hansen & A. Lunde & N. Shephard, 2009. "Realized kernels in practice: trades and quotes," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(3), pages 1-32, November.
    3. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Dobrev, Dobrislav, 2007. "No-arbitrage semi-martingale restrictions for continuous-time volatility models subject to leverage effects, jumps and i.i.d. noise: Theory and testable distributional implications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 125-180, May.
    4. Corsi, Fulvio & Pirino, Davide & Renò, Roberto, 2010. "Threshold bipower variation and the impact of jumps on volatility forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(2), pages 276-288, December.
    5. Mykland, Per A. & Zhang, Lan, 2016. "Between data cleaning and inference: Pre-averaging and robust estimators of the efficient price," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 194(2), pages 242-262.
    6. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    7. Chambers, Ae & Penman, Sh, 1984. "Timeliness Of Reporting And The Stock-Price Reaction To Earnings Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 21-47.
    8. Tim Bollerslev & Viktor Todorov, 2011. "Tails, Fears, and Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(6), pages 2165-2211, December.
    9. Stefano Dellavigna & Joshua M. Pollet, 2009. "Investor Inattention and Friday Earnings Announcements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 709-749, April.
    10. Christensen, Kim & Oomen, Roel C.A. & Podolskij, Mark, 2014. "Fact or friction: Jumps at ultra high frequency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 576-599.
    11. Henk Berkman & Cameron Truong, 2009. "Event Day 0? After‐Hours Earnings Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 47(1), pages 71-103, March.
    12. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. "One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1175-1199, September.
    13. Pierre Bajgrowicz & Olivier Scaillet & Adrien Treccani, 2016. "Jumps in High-Frequency Data: Spurious Detections, Dynamics, and News," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(8), pages 2198-2217, August.
    14. Suzanne S. Lee & Per A. Mykland, 2008. "Jumps in Financial Markets: A New Nonparametric Test and Jump Dynamics," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2535-2563, November.
    15. Barclay, Michael J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1993. "Stealth trading and volatility : Which trades move prices?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 281-305, December.
    16. Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. "How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-1191, September.
    17. Jiang, George J. & Oomen, Roel C.A., 2008. "Testing for jumps when asset prices are observed with noise-a "swap variance" approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 352-370, June.
    18. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
    19. Baldauf, Markus & Mollner, Joshua, 2022. "Fast traders make a quick buck: The role of speed in liquidity provision," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    20. Jiang, Christine X. & Likitapiwat, Tanakorn & McInish, Thomas H., 2012. "Information Content of Earnings Announcements: Evidence from After-Hours Trading," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(6), pages 1303-1330, December.
    21. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    22. Fink, Josef, 2021. "A review of the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    23. Bernard, Victor L. & Thomas, Jacob K., 1990. "Evidence that stock prices do not fully reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 305-340, December.
    24. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    25. Lihua Wang & Edward J. Zajac, 2007. "Alliance or acquisition? a dyadic perspective on interfirm resource combinations," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(13), pages 1291-1317, December.
    26. Ai[diaeresis]t-Sahalia, Yacine & Kimmel, Robert, 2007. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stochastic volatility models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 413-452, February.
    27. Beaver, Wh, 1968. "Information Content Of Annual Earnings Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6, pages 67-92.
    28. Michael J. Barclay, 2003. "Price Discovery and Trading After Hours," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(4), pages 1041-1073.
    29. Kalnina, Ilze, 2011. "Subsampling high frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 262-283, April.
    30. Jim Griffin & Roel Oomen, 2008. "Sampling Returns for Realized Variance Calculations: Tick Time or Transaction Time?," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1-3), pages 230-253.
    31. Lou, Dong & Polk, Christopher & Skouras, Spyros, 2019. "A tug of war: Overnight versus intraday expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 192-213.
    32. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    33. Lars Peter Hansen, 2021. "Uncertainty Spillovers for Markets and Policy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 371-396, August.
    34. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Jacod, Jean & Li, Jia, 2012. "Testing for jumps in noisy high frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 207-222.
    35. Bollerslev, Tim & Law, Tzuo Hann & Tauchen, George, 2008. "Risk, jumps, and diversification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 234-256, May.
    36. Bollerslev, Tim & Li, Sophia Zhengzi & Todorov, Viktor, 2016. "Roughing up beta: Continuous versus discontinuous betas and the cross section of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 464-490.
    37. Podolskij, Mark & Vetter, Mathias, 2009. "Bipower-type estimation in a noisy diffusion setting," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 119(9), pages 2803-2831, September.
    38. Kalnina, Ilze & Linton, Oliver, 2008. "Estimating quadratic variation consistently in the presence of endogenous and diurnal measurement error," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 47-59, November.
    39. Li, Yingying & Mykland, Per A. & Renault, Eric & Zhang, Lan & Zheng, Xinghua, 2014. "Realized Volatility When Sampling Times Are Possibly Endogenous," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(3), pages 580-605, June.
    40. Jacod, Jean & Li, Yingying & Mykland, Per A. & Podolskij, Mark & Vetter, Mathias, 2009. "Microstructure noise in the continuous case: The pre-averaging approach," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 119(7), pages 2249-2276, July.
    41. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. "The Summary Informativeness of Stock Trades: An Econometric Analysis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(3), pages 571-595.
    42. Lee, Suzanne S. & Mykland, Per A., 2012. "Jumps in equilibrium prices and market microstructure noise," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 396-406.
    43. Jonathan Brogaard & Terrence Hendershott & Ryan Riordan, 2014. "High-Frequency Trading and Price Discovery," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(8), pages 2267-2306.
    44. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2006. "Econometrics of Testing for Jumps in Financial Economics Using Bipower Variation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30.
    45. Ole E. Barndorff–Nielsen & Svend Erik Graversen & Jean Jacod & Mark Podolskij & Neil Shephard, 2006. "A Central Limit Theorem for Realised Power and Bipower Variations of Continuous Semimartingales," Springer Books, in: From Stochastic Calculus to Mathematical Finance, pages 33-68, Springer.
    46. Vincent Grégoire & Charles Martineau, 2022. "How is Earnings News Transmitted to Stock Prices?," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 60(1), pages 261-297, March.
    47. Aleksey Kolokolov & Roberto Renò, 2024. "Jumps or Staleness?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 516-532, April.
    48. Andrew J. Patton & Michela Verardo, 2012. "Does Beta Move with News? Firm-Specific Information Flows and Learning about Profitability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(9), pages 2789-2839.
    49. Cecilia Mancini, 2009. "Non‐parametric Threshold Estimation for Models with Stochastic Diffusion Coefficient and Jumps," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 36(2), pages 270-296, June.
    50. David Hirshleifer & Sonya Seongyeon Lim & Siew Hong Teoh, 2009. "Driven to Distraction: Extraneous Events and Underreaction to Earnings News," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2289-2325, October.
    51. Jensen, Michael C., 1978. "Some anomalous evidence regarding market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 95-101.
    52. Bernard, Vl & Thomas, Jk, 1989. "Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift - Delayed Price Response Or Risk Premium," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27, pages 1-36.
    53. Pavel Savor & Mungo Wilson, 2016. "Earnings Announcements and Systematic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 83-138, February.
    54. Ball, R & Brown, P, 1968. "Empirical Evaluation Of Accounting Income Numbers," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 159-178.
    55. Christensen, Kim & Hounyo, Ulrich & Podolskij, Mark, 2018. "Is the diurnal pattern sufficient to explain intraday variation in volatility? A nonparametric assessment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 205(2), pages 336-362.
    56. Jacod, Jean & Li, Yingying & Zheng, Xinghua, 2019. "Estimating the integrated volatility with tick observations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(1), pages 80-100.
    57. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    58. Chakrabarty, Bidisha & Pascual, Roberto & Shkilko, Andriy, 2015. "Evaluating trade classification algorithms: Bulk volume classification versus the tick rule and the Lee-Ready algorithm," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 52-79.
    59. repec:hal:journl:peer-00741630 is not listed on IDEAS
    60. Tarun Chordia & T Clifton Green & Badrinath Kottimukkalur, 2018. "Rent Seeking by Low-Latency Traders: Evidence from Trading on Macroeconomic Announcements," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(12), pages 4650-4687.
    61. Vives Xavier, 1995. "The Speed of Information Revelation in a Financial Market Mechanism," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 178-204, October.
    62. Bruno Biais & Pierre Hillion & Chester Spatt, 1999. "Price Discovery and Learning during the Preopening Period in the Paris Bourse," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(6), pages 1218-1248, December.
    63. Hengjie Ai & Ravi Bansal, 2018. "Risk Preferences and the Macroeconomic Announcement Premium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(4), pages 1383-1430, July.
    64. Christensen, Kim & Oomen, Roel & Renò, Roberto, 2022. "The drift burst hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(2), pages 461-497.
    65. Jeon, Yoontae & McCurdy, Thomas H. & Zhao, Xiaofei, 2022. "News as sources of jumps in stock returns: Evidence from 21 million news articles for 9000 companies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 1-17.
    66. Aleksey Kolokolov & Giulia Livieri & Davide Pirino, 2022. "Testing for Endogeneity of Irregular Sampling Schemes," CEIS Research Paper 547, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 19 Dec 2022.
    67. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
    68. Charles Martineau, 2022. "Rest in Peace Post-Earnings Announcement Drift," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 11(3-4), pages 613-646, August.
    69. Andrew Dubinsky & Michael Johannes & Andreas Kaeck & Norman J Seeger, 2019. "Option Pricing of Earnings Announcement Risks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(2), pages 646-687.
    70. Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2015. "Efficiently Inefficient: How Smart Money Invests and Market Prices Are Determined," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10441, December.
    71. Christensen, K. & Podolskij, M. & Thamrongrat, N. & Veliyev, B., 2017. "Inference from high-frequency data: A subsampling approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 197(2), pages 245-272.
    72. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
    73. Samuel M. Hartzmark & Kelly Shue, 2018. "A Tough Act to Follow: Contrast Effects in Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 1567-1613, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Chuanhai & Liu, Zhi & Liu, Qiang, 2021. "Jumps at ultra-high frequency: Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    2. Jiang, George J. & Zhu, Kevin X., 2017. "Information Shocks and Short-Term Market Underreaction," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 43-64.
    3. Pierre Bajgrowicz & Olivier Scaillet & Adrien Treccani, 2016. "Jumps in High-Frequency Data: Spurious Detections, Dynamics, and News," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(8), pages 2198-2217, August.
    4. Kim Christensen & Ulrich Hounyo & Mark Podolskij, 2026. "Is the diurnal pattern sufficient to explain intraday variation in volatility? A nonparametric assessment," Papers 2601.16613, arXiv.org.
    5. Blankespoor, Elizabeth & deHaan, Ed & Marinovic, Iván, 2020. "Disclosure processing costs, investors’ information choice, and equity market outcomes: A review," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2).
    6. Caporin, Massimiliano & Kolokolov, Aleksey & Renò, Roberto, 2017. "Systemic co-jumps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 563-591.
    7. Zhao, X. & Hong, S. Y. & Linton, O. B., 2024. "Jumps Versus Bursts: Dissection and Origins via a New Endogenous Thresholding Approach," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2449, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    8. repec:cam:camjip:2423 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Christensen, K. & Podolskij, M. & Thamrongrat, N. & Veliyev, B., 2017. "Inference from high-frequency data: A subsampling approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 197(2), pages 245-272.
    10. Li, Yifan & Nolte, Ingmar & Nolte, Sandra & Yu, Shifan, 2025. "Realized candlestick wicks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    11. Hizmeri, Rodrigo & Izzeldin, Marwan & Urga, Giovanni, 2025. "Identifying the underlying components of high-frequency data: Pure vs jump diffusion processes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    12. Bu, Ruijun & Hizmeri, Rodrigo & Izzeldin, Marwan & Murphy, Anthony & Tsionas, Mike, 2023. "The contribution of jump signs and activity to forecasting stock price volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 144-164.
    13. Zhou, Haigang & Zhu, John Qi, 2019. "Firm characteristics and jump dynamics in stock prices around earnings announcements," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    14. Ao Kong & Hongliang Zhu & Robert Azencott, 2021. "Predicting intraday jumps in stock prices using liquidity measures and technical indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 416-438, April.
    15. Ao Kong & Hongliang Zhu & Robert Azencott, 2019. "Predicting intraday jumps in stock prices using liquidity measures and technical indicators," Papers 1912.07165, arXiv.org.
    16. Christensen, Kim & Oomen, Roel & Renò, Roberto, 2022. "The drift burst hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(2), pages 461-497.
    17. repec:osf:socarx:z7k3p_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Massimiliano Caporin & Aleksey Kolokolov & Roberto RenoÕ, 2014. "Multi-jumps," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0185, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
      • Caporin, Massimiliano & Kolokolov, Aleksey & Renò, Roberto, 2014. "Multi-jumps," MPRA Paper 58175, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Kim Christensen & Ulrich Hounyo & Mark Podolskij, 2017. "Is the diurnal pattern sufficient to explain the intraday variation in volatility? A nonparametric assessment," CREATES Research Papers 2017-30, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    20. Fung, Scott & Obaid, Khaled & Tsai, Shih-Chuan, 2024. "Information acquisition and processing skills of institutions and retail investors around information shocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    21. Martineau, Charles, 2021. "Rest in Peace Post-Earnings Announcement Drift," SocArXiv z7k3p, Center for Open Science.
    22. Jiang, Hao & Li, Sophia Zhengzi & Wang, Hao, 2021. "Pervasive underreaction: Evidence from high-frequency data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 573-599.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2601.08962. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.