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Intervention and the foreign exchange risk premium: An empirical investigation of daily effects

  • Humpage, Owen F.
  • Osterberg, William P.

Currency markets have witnessed a sharp increase in government intervention since 1985. Many observers believe that this intervention promoted the dollar's depreciation between 1985 and early 1987, and that intervention has since helped to stabilize dollar exchange rates. This paper tests for a systematic effect of daily dollar intervention on exchange rate risk premia. We test for both portfolio balance effects and signaling influences by using daily data on central bank intervention (in dollars) against both the yen and the West German mark. Following work by Dominguez (1989) and Loopesko (1984), we measure the daily risk premium in terms of the deviation from uncovered interest parity. However, we follow other empirical analyses of exchange rates and allow for generalized conditional autoregressive heteroscedasticity (GARCH). Some evidence is found for both the portfolio balance and signaling channels.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Global Finance Journal.

Volume (Year): 3 (1992)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 23-50

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Handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:3:y:1992:i:1:p:23-50
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620162

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  1. Johnson, David, 1988. "The currency denomination of long-term debt in the Canadian corporate sector: An empirical analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 77-90, March.
  2. Giovannini, Alberto & Jorion, Philippe, 1989. " The Time Variation of Risk and Return in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 307-25, June.
  3. Robert E. Cumby, 1987. "Is it Risk? Explaining Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 2380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Lyons, Richard K., 1988. "Tests of the foreign exchange risk premium using the expected second moments implied by option pricing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 91-108, March.
  5. Charles Engel & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 1987. "Tests of International CAPM with Time-Varying Covariances," NBER Working Papers 2303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 297-305, July.
  7. Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Monetary Policy: An ARCH Application," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(1), pages 66-77, February.
  8. William H. Branson & Dale W. Henderson, 1984. "The Specification and Influence of Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 1283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Owen F. Humpage, 1984. "Dollar intervention and the deutschemark-dollar exchange rate: a daily time-series model," Working Paper 8404, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  10. Hali J. Edison, 1990. "Foreign currency operations: an annotated bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 380, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Warren E. Weber, 1986. "Do sterilized interventions affect exchange rates?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 14-23.
  12. McCurdy, Thomas H & Morgan, Ieuan G, 1988. "Testing the Martingale Hypothesis in Deutsche Mark Futures with Models Specifying the Form of Heteroscedasticity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 187-202, July-Sept.
  13. Loopesko, Bonnie E., 1984. "Relationships among exchange rates, intervention, and interest rates: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 257-277, December.
  14. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  15. Backus, David K. & Kehoe, Patrick J., 1989. "On the denomination of government debt : A critique of the portfolio balance approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 359-376, May.
  16. Mark, Nelson C., 1988. "Time-varying betas and risk premia in the pricing of forward foreign exchange contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 335-354, December.
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