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Testing the Effectiveness of the Czech National Bank’s Foreign-Exchange Interventions

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  • Adam Geršl

    () (Czech National Bank, and Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University, Prague)

Abstract

This article reviews several approaches to testing the effectiveness of foreign-exchange interventions and applies some of these to data on interventions made by the Czech National Bank in 2001 and 2002. The reaction function of the CNB and the impact of interventions on exchange rates and on conditional and implied volatility are estimated, and the successfulness of interventions is discussed within the event-study approach. The results indicate that the interventions by the central bank had only a minor, short-term effect on exchange rates and, to a certain extent, contributed to increased conditional and implied volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Geršl, 2006. "Testing the Effectiveness of the Czech National Bank’s Foreign-Exchange Interventions," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 56(09-10), pages 398-415, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:56:y:2006:i:9-10:p:398-415
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    File URL: http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1066_s_398_415.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jorge I Canales Kriljenko & Cem Karacadag & Roberto Pereira Guimarães & Shogo Ishii, 2006. "Official Foreign Exchange Intervention," IMF Occasional Papers 249, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Scalia, Antonio, 2008. "Is foreign exchange intervention effective? Some microanalytical evidence from the Czech Republic," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 529-546, June.
    3. Humpage, Owen F, 1999. "U.S. Intervention: Assessing the Probability of Success," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(4), pages 731-747, November.
    4. Kearns, Jonathan & Rigobon, Roberto, 2005. "Identifying the efficacy of central bank interventions: evidence from Australia and Japan," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 31-48, May.
    5. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Lewis, Karen K., 1996. "Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 285-312, April.
    6. Nagayasu, Jun, 2004. "The effectiveness of Japanese foreign exchange interventions during 1991-2001," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 377-381, September.
    7. Ghosh, Atish R., 1992. "Is it signalling? Exchange intervention and the dollar-Deutschemark rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 201-220, May.
    8. Hung, Juann H, 1997. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 779-793, September.
    9. Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2008. "The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention: A nonlinear microstructural analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 55-76, January.
    10. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 685-718.
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    12. Adam Gersl & Tomás Holub, 2006. "Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(4), pages 475-491, October.
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    14. Ito, Takatoshi & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2007. "What prompts Japan to intervene in the Forex market? A new approach to a reaction function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 193-212, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Madhusudan Mohanty & Bat-el Berger, 2013. "Central bank views on foreign exchange intervention," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 73, pages 55-74 Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Juraj Zeman & Biswajit Banerjee & Ludovit Odor & William O. Riiska Jr., 2017. "On the Effectiveness of Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: The Case of Slovakia, 1999-2007," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2017, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    effectiveness of intervention; event study; exchange rate; foreign-exchange intervention;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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