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Testing the Effectiveness of the Czech National Bank’s Foreign-Exchange Interventions

  • Adam Geršl

    ()

    (Czech National Bank, and Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University, Prague)

This article reviews several approaches to testing the effectiveness of foreign-exchange interventions and applies some of these to data on interventions made by the Czech National Bank in 2001 and 2002. The reaction function of the CNB and the impact of interventions on exchange rates and on conditional and implied volatility are estimated, and the successfulness of interventions is discussed within the event-study approach. The results indicate that the interventions by the central bank had only a minor, short-term effect on exchange rates and, to a certain extent, contributed to increased conditional and implied volatility.

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Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 56 (2006)
Issue (Month): 09-10 (September)
Pages: 398-415

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Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:56:y:2006:i:9-10:p:398-415
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  1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Karen K. Lewis, 1993. "Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Hung, Juann H, 1997. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 779-793, September.
  3. Ghosh, A.R., 1990. "Is It Signalling Exchange Intervention And The Dollar- Deutschemark Rate," Papers 48, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Discussion Paper.
  4. Ramana Ramaswamy & Hossein Samiei, 2000. "The Yen-Dollar Rate; Have Interventions Mattered?," IMF Working Papers 00/95, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Takatoshi Ito & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2004. "What Prompts Japan to Intervene in the Forex Market? A New Approach to a Reaction Function," NBER Working Papers 10456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Tomas Holub, 2004. "Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience," Research and Policy Notes 2004/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  7. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective, and, If So, How Does It Work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Nagayasu, Jun, 2004. "The effectiveness of Japanese foreign exchange interventions during 1991-2001," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 377-381, September.
  9. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 685-718.
  10. Scalia, Antonio, 2008. "Is foreign exchange intervention effective? Some microanalytical evidence from the Czech Republic," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 529-546, June.
  11. Owen F. Humpage & William P. Osterberg, 1990. "Intervention and the foreign exchange risk premium: an empirical investigation of daily effects," Working Paper 9009, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  12. Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention: a nonlinear microstructural analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,08, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  13. Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko & Cem Karacadag & Roberto Pereira Guimarães & Shogo Ishii, 2006. "Official Foreign Exchange Intervention," IMF Occasional Papers 249, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Humpage, Owen F, 1999. "U.S. Intervention: Assessing the Probability of Success," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(4), pages 731-47, November.
  15. Kearns, Jonathan & Rigobon, Roberto, 2005. "Identifying the efficacy of central bank interventions: evidence from Australia and Japan," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 31-48, May.
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