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Citations for "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis"

by Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J

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  1. Paul Hubert, 2009. "An Empirical Review of Federal Reserve’s Informational Advantage," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  2. Hsu, Po-Hsuan, 2009. "Technological innovations and aggregate risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 264-279, November.
  3. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2008:i:3:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Shi, Wei & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Dietz, Sarah N., 2005. "Wheat Forward Contract Pricing: Evidence on Forecast Power and Risk Premia," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19043, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  5. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2004. "Characterizing Asymmetric Information in International Equity Markets," International Finance 0405005, EconWPA.
  6. Alexander Ludwig, 2005. "Moment estimation in Auerbach-Kotlikoff models: How well do they match the data?," MEA discussion paper series 05093, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  7. Sjaastad, Larry A. & Scacciavillani, Fabio, 1996. "The price of gold and the exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 879-897, December.
  8. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Wolff, Christian C.P. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2012. "Explaining dispersion in foreign exchange expectations: A heterogeneous agent approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 719-735.
  9. Brent Bundick, 2007. "Do federal funds futures need adjustment for excess returns? a state-dependent approach," Research Working Paper RWP 07-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  10. Julie Agnew & Pierluigi Balduzzi & Annika Sundén, 2003. "Portfolio Choice and Trading in a Large 401(k) Plan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 193-215, March.
  11. Dean Croushore, 1998. "Evaluating inflation forecasts," Working Papers 98-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  12. Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2006. "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," 2006 Meeting Papers 29, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  13. V. Vance Roley, 1986. "U.S. Monetary Policy Regimes and U.S.-Japan Financial Relations," NBER Working Papers 1858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models and currency risk: some evidence from density forecasts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 363-385, March.
  15. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Reflections on Econometric Methodology," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 893, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  17. Macide Cicek, 2014. "A Cointegration Test for Turkish Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(4), pages 451-471, April.
  18. Colin R. McKenzie & Michael McAleer & Len Gill, 1999. "Simple Procedures for Testing Autoregressive Versus Moving Average Errors in Regression Models," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 50(3), pages 239-252, 09.
  19. Esben Hedegaard & Robert J. Hodrick, 2014. "Estimating the Risk-Return Trade-off with Overlapping Data Inference," NBER Working Papers 19969, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. David Andolfatto & Scott Hendry & Kevin Moran, 2005. "Are Inflation Expectations Rational?," Macroeconomics 0501002, EconWPA.
  21. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. McDonald, A.David & Hurn, A.Stan, 1995. "Unobservable cyclical components in term premia of fixed-term financial instruments," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 403-409.
  23. Jordà, Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2009. "The Carry Trade and Fundamentals: Nothing to Fear But FEER Itself," CEPR Discussion Papers 7568, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. Ying Huang & Feng Guo, 2006. "An Empirical Examination of Capital Mobility in East Asia Emerging Markets," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 97-111.
  25. Domian, Dale L. & Louton, David A., 1995. "Business cycle asymmetry and the stock market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 451-466.
  26. W A Razzak, 1998. "The forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis in inflation-targeting regimes," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/3, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, revised Aug 1999.
  27. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Georgoutsos, Dimitris A. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2008. "Testing the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis during the 1920s," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 358-373, October.
  28. Edlin, Aaron S., 2002. "Forward Discount Bias, Nalebuff's Envelope Puzzle, and the Siegel Paradox in Foreign Exchange," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series qt2wc1p9pw, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
  29. Daniel L. Thornton, 2004. "Tests of the expectations hypothesis: resolving the Campbell-Shiller paradox," Working Papers 2003-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  30. Bernhardsen, Tom, 2000. "The relationship between interest rate differentials and macroeconomic variables: a panel data study for European countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 289-308, April.
  31. Narayana R. Kocherlakota & Luigi Pistaferri, 2007. "Household Heterogeneity and Real Exchange Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(519), pages C1-C25, 03.
  32. Schrimpf, Andreas & Wang, Qingwei, 2010. "A reappraisal of the leading indicator properties of the yield curve under structural instability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 836-857, October.
  33. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1990. "Does correcting for heteroscedasticity help?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 351-356, December.
  34. Ang, Andrew & Maddaloni, Angela, 2003. "Do demographic changes affect risk premiums? Evidence from international data," Working Paper Series 0208, European Central Bank.
  35. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1982. "International Interest-Rate and Price-Level Linkages Under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 0921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2005. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons during the Post-Bretton Woods Era," NBER Working Papers 11077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Pedersen, Karsten N., 1991. "Intertemporal substitution in consumption : evidence for some high- and middle-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 641, The World Bank.
  38. Kiani, Khurshid M., 2013. "Can signal extraction help predict risk premia in foreign exchange rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 926-939.
  39. François Gourio & Michael Siemer & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011. "International Risk Cycles," NBER Working Papers 17277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  41. Reinhart, Carmen & Borensztein, Eduardo, 1994. "The determinants of commodity prices," MPRA Paper 13870, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  42. Hassan, Tarek & Mano, Rui C., 2014. "Forward and Spot Exchange Rates in a Multi-currency World," CEPR Discussion Papers 10060, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  43. Adrien Verdelhan & Hanno Lustig, 2005. "The Cross-Section Of Foreign Currency Risk Premia And Consumption Growth Risk," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-019, Boston University - Department of Economics.
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  45. Wagner, Christian, 2009. "Risk-Premia, Carry-Trade Dynamics, and Economic Value of Currency Speculation," MPRA Paper 21125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  46. Laura Spierdijk & Jacob Bikker, 2012. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Implications for Long-Term Investors," DNB Working Papers 343, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  47. Xu Cheng & Bruce E. Hansen, 2012. "Forecasting with Factor-Augmented Regression: A Frequentist Model Averaging Approach, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-061, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 03 Sep 2013.
  48. Gan, Pei-Tha, 2014. "The precise form of financial integration: Empirical evidence for selected Asian countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 208-219.
  49. Jeffrey Frankel & Jumana Poonawala, 2006. "The Forward Market in Emerging Currencies: Less Biased Than in Major Currencies," NBER Working Papers 12496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  50. Baker, Malcolm & Greenwood, Robin & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2003. "The maturity of debt issues and predictable variation in bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 261-291, November.
  51. Antonio Diez de los Rios & Enrique Sentana, 2011. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity: A Continuous‐Time Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1215-1251, November.
  52. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1982. "The Real Interest Rate: A Multi-Country Empirical Study," NBER Working Papers 1047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  53. Varela, Oscar, 1999. "Futures and realized cash or settle prices for gold, silver, and copper," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 121-138.
  54. Rose, Andrew K & Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "Expected and Predicted Realignments: The FF/DM Exchange Rate During the EMS," CEPR Discussion Papers 552, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  55. Boum-Jong Choe, 1990. "Commodity price forecasts and futures prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 436, The World Bank.
  56. Hélène Raymond & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, 1996. "Les erreurs de prévision de change ont-elles des caractéristiques hétérogènes ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 125(4), pages 137-157.
  57. Lars Peter Hansen, 2014. "Uncertainty Outside and Inside Economic Models," NBER Working Papers 20394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  58. Carol L. Osler, 1989. "Interest Rate Term Premiums and the Failure of the Speculative Efficiency Hypothesis: A Theoretical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 3060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  59. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2012. "Modeling the horizon-dependent risk premium in the forex market: evidence from survey data," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-29, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  60. Gjolberg, Ole, 1995. "Are piglet prices rational hog price forecasts?," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 13(2), November.
  61. Kurz, Mordecai & Motolese, Maurizio, 2006. "Risk Premia, diverse belief and beauty contests," MPRA Paper 247, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  62. Nelson, C.R. & Kim, M.J., 1990. "Predictable Stock Returns: Reality Or Statistical Illusion?," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 90-15, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  63. Atta-Mensah, J, 1996. "A Modified P*-Model of Inflation Based on M1," Working Papers 96-15, Bank of Canada.
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  65. Erik Hjalmarsson, 2006. "New methods for inference in long-run predictive regressions," International Finance Discussion Papers 853, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  66. Oliver Linton & Anisha Ghosh, 2007. "Consistent Estimation of the Risk-Return Tradeoff in the Presence of Measurement Error," FMG Discussion Papers dp605, Financial Markets Group.
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  68. Bond, Derek & Harrison, Michael J & Hession, Niall & O’Brien, Edward J., 2006. "Some Empirical Observations on the Forward Exchange Rate Anomaly," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
  69. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Ou, Yangguoyi, 2009. "Analyzing interest rate risk: Stochastic volatility in the term structure of government bond yields," CFS Working Paper Series 2009/03, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  70. Gjolberg, Ole, 1995. "Are piglet prices rational hog price forecasts?," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 119-123, November.
  71. Hutchison, Michael & Sushko, Vladyslav, 2013. "Impact of macro-economic surprises on carry trade activity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1133-1147.
  72. Nirei, Makoto & Sushko, Vladyslav, 2011. "Jumps in foreign exchange rates and stochastic unwinding of carry trades," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 110-127, January.
  73. Beber, Alessandro & Breedon, Francis & Buraschi, Andrea, 2010. "Differences in beliefs and currency risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 415-438, December.
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  75. Ardic, Oya Pinar & Ergin, Onur & Senol, G. Bahar, 2008. "Exchange Rate Forecasting: Evidence from the Emerging Central and Eastern European Economies," MPRA Paper 7505, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  76. Min Wei & Jonathan Wright, 2009. "Confidence intervals for long-horizon predictive regressions via reverse regressions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  77. Andrew McKenzie & Matthew Holt, 2002. "Market efficiency in agricultural futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1519-1532.
  78. Heeho Kim, 2013. "Uncertainty and risk premium puzzle," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 62-79, January.
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  83. Graham Elliott & Takatoshi Ito, 1998. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Tests of Efficiency in the Yen/Dollar Forward Exchange rate Market," Discussion Paper Series a347, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
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