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Tests of Excess Forecast Volatility in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets

Listed author(s):
  • Kenneth A. Froot

Simple regression tests that have power against the alternatives that. asset prices and expected future asset returns are excessively volatile are developed and performed for the foreign exchange and stock markets. These tests have a number of advantages over alternative, variance hounds techniques. We find evidence that. both exchange rates and stock prices are excessively volatile and that expected returns on foreign exchange and stocks move too much. We also investigate whether these findings ran he attributed to time-varying risk premia, but in our tests the data provide little support for such an alternative hypothesis.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w2362.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2362.

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Date of creation: Aug 1987
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2362
Note: ME ITI IFM
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  1. Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1142-1151, December.
  2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
  3. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1985. " An Unbiased Reexamination of Stock Market Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 677-687, July.
  4. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
  5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "Do Long-Term Interest Rates Overreact to Short-Term Interest Rates?," NBER Working Papers 1345, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
  7. Meese, Richard A & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Rational Expectations and the Volatility of Floating Exchange Rates," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(3), pages 721-733, October.
  8. Marsh, Terry A & Merton, Robert C, 1986. "Dividend Variability and Variance Bounds Tests for the Rationality ofStock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 483-498, June.
  9. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Richard Meese, 1987. "Are Exchange Rates Excessively Variable?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 117-162 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Diba, Behzad T, 1987. "A Critique of Variance Bounds Tests for Monetary Exchange Rate Models: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(1), pages 104-111, February.
  11. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Stock, James H., 1987. "Regression vs. volatility tests of the efficiency of foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 49-56, March.
  12. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
  13. Joe Mattey and Richard Meese., 1986. "Empirical Assessment of Present Value Relations," Research Program in Finance Working Papers 162, University of California at Berkeley.
  14. Vander Kraats, R.H. & Booth, L.D., 1983. "Empirical tests of the monetary approach to exchange-rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 255-278, December.
  15. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
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