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Policy coordination and risk premium in foreign exchange markets for major EU currencies

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  • Phengpis, Chanwit
  • Nguyen, Vanthuan

Abstract

This study investigates cointegration, policy coordination and the risk premium in foreign exchange markets for major EU currencies since the inception of the EMU in January 1999. The results show that only the krone and the pound are cointegrated with the euro. Tests of inflation convergence and analyses of reduced-form and structural VARs indicate that the cointegration evidence reflects the relatively stronger degree of monetary policy coordination and at least the de facto fixed exchange rate regime of Denmark and the U.K. with the EMU. Additionally, cointegration of spot exchange rates can be considered one of the factors that represent the time-varying risk premium due to its explanatory power for the return to forward speculation.

Suggested Citation

  • Phengpis, Chanwit & Nguyen, Vanthuan, 2009. "Policy coordination and risk premium in foreign exchange markets for major EU currencies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 47-62, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:19:y:2009:i:1:p:47-62
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:eee:intfin:v:48:y:2017:i:c:p:82-98 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. de Truchis, Gilles & Dell’Eva, Cyril & Keddad, Benjamin, 2017. "On exchange rate comovements: New evidence from a Taylor rule fundamentals model with adaptive learning," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 82-98.
    3. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Frauke Dobnik, 2011. "Cross-section Dependence and the Monetary Exchange Rate Mode – A Panel Analysis," Ruhr Economic Papers 0252, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Dobnik, Frauke, 2012. "Cross-section dependence and the monetary exchange rate model – A panel analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 38-53.
    5. repec:zbw:rwirep:0252 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Kumar, Satish & Trück, Stefan, 2014. "Unbiasedness and risk premiums in the Indian currency futures market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 13-32.

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