IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/62353.html

Évaluation du processus d'intégration monétaire au sein du Système Monétaire Européen
[Evaluation of the monetary integration process within the European Monetary Ststem]

Author

Listed:
  • Galy, Michel

Abstract

The question whether the European Monetary System has brought about a reduction in the variability of its members' exchange rates is not a trivial issue since central rates are adjustable and bilateral exchange rates are allowed to move freely within fairly large margins. In this paper I have found clear evidence after 1979 of a reduction in nominal exchange rate variability but only mixed results when the same analysis is applied to real exchange rates. Several factors might account for these results. An attempt is made to assess the specific influence of changes in monetary and exchange rate policies. The evidence derived from an application of the principal component analysis to interest rates and the first results provided by an ad-hoc empirical model on the reaction functions of some EMS central banks point to the prominent role played after 1979 by more convergence in monetary policies and more forceful interventions on the foreign exchange markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Galy, Michel, 1985. "Évaluation du processus d'intégration monétaire au sein du Système Monétaire Européen [Evaluation of the monetary integration process within the European Monetary Ststem]," MPRA Paper 62353, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:62353
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/62353/1/MPRA_paper_62353.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    2. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1973. "Optimal Stabilization Policies for Deterministic and Stochastic Linear Economic Systems," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 40(1), pages 79-95.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hakkio, Craig S, 1981. "Expectations and the Forward Exchange Rate," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(3), pages 663-678, October.
    2. Brian H. Boyer & Taylor D. Nadauld & Keith P. Vorkink & Michael S. Weisbach, 2023. "Discount‐Rate Risk in Private Equity: Evidence from Secondary Market Transactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 835-885, April.
    3. Gregory, Allan W. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 1986. "The unbiasedness hypothesis in the forward foreign exchange market: A specification analysis with application to France, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and West Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 365-381, April.
    4. Boum-Jong Choe, 1990. "Rational expectations and commodity price forecasts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 435, The World Bank.
    5. Peter Isard, 1983. "What's wrong with empirical exchange rate models: some critical issues and new directions," International Finance Discussion Papers 226, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Darvas, Zsolt, 1999. "Az árfolyamsávok empirikus modelljei és a devizaárfolyam sávon belüli előrejelezhetetlensége [Empirical models of exchange rate target zones]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 507-529.
    7. Gianluca Stefani & Marco Tiberti, 2016. "Multiperiod optimal hedging ratios: methodological aspects and application to a wheat market," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 43(3), pages 503-531.
    8. Zhiguang Wang & Prasad Bidarkota, 2012. "Risk premia in forward foreign exchange rates: a comparison of signal extraction and regression methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 21-51, February.
    9. Heeho Kim, 2013. "Uncertainty and risk premium puzzle," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(1), pages 62-79, January.
    10. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2019. "iCurrency?," Papers 1911.01272, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.
    11. Campbell, John Y., 2001. "Why long horizons? A study of power against persistent alternatives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 459-491, December.
    12. Atanasov, Victoria, 2021. "Unemployment and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    13. Kate Phylaktis & David Blake, 1993. "The fisher hypothesis: Evidence from three high inflation economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 129(3), pages 591-599, September.
    14. Nucera, Federico & Valente, Giorgio, 2013. "Carry trades and the performance of currency hedge funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 407-425.
    15. Sanders, Dwight R. & Garcia, Philip & Manfredo, Mark R., 2008. "Information Content in Deferred Futures Prices: Live Cattle and Hogs," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(01), pages 1-12, April.
    16. repec:gla:glaewp:2023-03 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Frachot, Antoine, 1996. "A reexamination of the uncovered interest rate parity hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 419-437, June.
    18. Seamus Hogan & Marianne Johnson & Thérèse Laflèche, 2001. "Core Inflation," Technical Reports 89, Bank of Canada.
    19. Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael Rebitzky & Michael Schroder, 2008. "Do dollar forecasters believe too much in PPP?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 261-270.
    20. Edwards, Sebastian, 1983. "Floating exchange rates, expectations and new information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 321-336.
    21. repec:adr:anecst:y:1998:i:52:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. S. M. Ahmed & M. I. Ansari, 1997. "Modelling the efficiency of the Canadian foreign exchange market: a bivariate transfer function analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 63-70.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:62353. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.