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After the tide: Commodity currencies and global trade

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  • Ready, Robert
  • Roussanov, Nikolai
  • Ward, Colin

Abstract

The decade prior to the Great Recession saw a boom in global trade and rising transportation costs. High-yielding commodity exporters׳ currencies appreciated, boosting carry trade profits. The Global Recession sharply reversed these trends. We interpret these facts with a two-country general equilibrium model that features specialization in production and endogenous fluctuations in trade costs. Slow adjustment in the shipping sector generates boom–bust cycles in freight rates and, as a consequence, in currency risk premia. We validate these predictions using global shipping data. Our calibrated model explains about 57% of the narrowing of interest rate differentials post-crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Ready, Robert & Roussanov, Nikolai & Ward, Colin, 2017. "After the tide: Commodity currencies and global trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 69-86.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:85:y:2017:i:c:p:69-86
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2016.11.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fuentes, Fernanda & Herrera, Rodrigo & Clements, Adam, 2018. "Modeling extreme risks in commodities and commodity currencies," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 108-120.
    2. repec:eee:jimfin:v:88:y:2018:i:c:p:54-78 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2018. "Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 54-78.
    4. Edouard Djeutem & Geoffrey R. Dunbar, 2018. "Uncovered Return Parity: Equity Returns and Currency Returns," Staff Working Papers 18-22, Bank of Canada.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shipping; Trade costs; Carry trade; Currency risk premia; Exchange rates; International risk sharing; Commodity trade;

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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