IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/irapec/v23y2009i4p521-540.html

Testing exchange rate efficiency: the case of euro-dollar

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Mazzoli
  • Christian Barducci

Abstract

This paper tests the semi-strong efficiency of the euro-dollar currency market by introducing a simple heuristic test, based on the 'general-to-specific' methodology and meant to include as two specific sub-cases the 'efficient market hypothesis' (EMH) in the currency market as well as alternative theories implying a time dependent process of propagation of information. According to the results of our nested test, the 'efficient market hypothesis' in the euro-dollar currency market is rejected.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Mazzoli & Christian Barducci, 2009. "Testing exchange rate efficiency: the case of euro-dollar," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 521-540.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:23:y:2009:i:4:p:521-540
    DOI: 10.1080/02692170902954817
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02692170902954817
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/02692170902954817?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:scandj:v:78:y:1976:i:2:p:305-08 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:bla:scandj:v:78:y:1976:i:2:p:280-304 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    4. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 457-510.
    5. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    6. Liu, Peter C & Maddala, G S, 1992. "Using Survey Data to Test Market Efficiency in the Foreign Exchange Markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 303-314.
    7. Young, H Peyton, 1993. "The Evolution of Conventions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 57-84, January.
    8. John D. Hey & Andrea Morone, 2018. "Do Markets Drive Out Lemmings—or Vice Versa?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Experiments in Economics Decision Making and Markets, chapter 21, pages 467-489, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Topol, Richard, 1991. "Bubbles and Volatility of Stock Prices: Effect of Mimetic Contagion," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 786-800, July.
    10. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
    11. Devenow, Andrea & Welch, Ivo, 1996. "Rational herding in financial economics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 603-615, April.
    12. Liu, Peter C. & Maddala, G. S., 1992. "Rationality of survey data and tests for market efficiency in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 366-381, August.
    13. Abhijit V. Banerjee, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817.
    14. repec:bla:econom:v:71:y:2004:i:284:p:637-659 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Diniz-Maganini, Natalia & Rasheed, Abdul A. & Sheng, Hsia Hua, 2021. "Exchange rate regimes and price efficiency: Empirical examination of the impact of financial crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pegah Dehghani & Ros Zam Zam Sapian, 2014. "Sectoral herding behavior in the aftermarket of Malaysian IPOs," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 227-246, July.
    2. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2008. "Thought and Behavior Contagion in Capital Markets," MPRA Paper 9164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Pradelski, Bary S.R., 2023. "Social influence: The Usage History heuristic," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 105-113.
    4. G. Rejikumar & Aswathy Asokan-Ajitha & Sofi Dinesh & Ajay Jose, 2022. "The role of cognitive complexity and risk aversion in online herd behavior," Electronic Commerce Research, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 585-621, June.
    5. Malik, Saif Ullah & Elahi, Muhammad Ather, 2014. "Analysis of Herd Behavior Using Quantile Regression: Evidence from Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE)," MPRA Paper 55322, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Park, Beum-Jo & Kim, Myung-Joong, 2017. "A Dynamic Measure of Intentional Herd Behavior in Financial Markets," MPRA Paper 82025, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. A. Corcos & J-P Eckmann & A. Malaspinas & Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2002. "Imitation and contrarian behaviour: hyperbolic bubbles, crashes and chaos," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 264-281.
    8. A. C. V. Subrahmanyam & S. Raja Sethu Durai, 2023. "Does ownership matter in bank herding behavior? Evidence from India," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 25(1), pages 49-71, December.
    9. Saad, Mohsen & Samet, Anis, 2020. "Collectivism and commonality in liquidity," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 137-162.
    10. Puput Tri Komalasari & Marwan Asri & Bernardinus M. Purwanto & Bowo Setiyono, 2022. "Herding behaviour in the capital market: What do we know and what is next?," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(3), pages 745-787, September.
    11. Filippin, Antonio, 2003. "Discrimination and Workers' Expectations: Experimental Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 824, IZA Network @ LISER.
    12. Jonathan E. Alevy & Michael S. Haigh & John List, 2006. "Information Cascades: Evidence from An Experiment with Financial Market Professionals," NBER Working Papers 12767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Xue, Wenjun & He, Zhongzhi & Hu, Yu, 2023. "The destabilizing effect of mutual fund herding: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    14. Pan, Changchun & Song, Yuhang & Jin, Long, 2024. "Stock price spillovers from foreign institutional investor divestment: Evidence from BlackRock's closure of the China Flexible Equity Fund," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    15. Guney, Yilmaz & Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Komba, Gabriel, 2017. "Herding in frontier markets: Evidence from African stock exchanges," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 152-175.
    16. Chan, C.S. Richard & Parhankangas, Annaleena & Sahaym, Arvin & Oo, Pyayt, 2020. "Bellwether and the herd? Unpacking the u-shaped relationship between prior funding and subsequent contributions in reward-based crowdfunding," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 35(2).
    17. Louise Allsopp, 2004. "An Experiment to Investigate the Externalities of Search," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(251), pages 423-435, December.
    18. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    19. I. Koetsier & J.A. Bikker, 2017. "Herding behaviour of Dutch pension funds in sovereign bond investments," Working Papers 17-15, Utrecht School of Economics.
    20. Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Montone, Maurizio, 2024. "Political uncertainty and institutional herding," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:23:y:2009:i:4:p:521-540. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CIRA20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.