Risk Premium and Central Bank Intervention
This study examines the relation between the risk premium and central bank intervention. Forward rates are calculated for the Turkish Lira-USD exchange market and then the effect of central bank intervention on the risk premium is estimated. Using high quality daily intervention data from the Central Bank of Turkey as well as implied forward rates, an MA (21)-GARCH (1,1) model is estimated. Both purchases and sales of US dollars by the Central Bank of Turkey appear to have no effect on the size of risk premium for TL/USD for the free float period. Similar results are found for the managed float period. Empirical support was weak for the theoretical model, with intervention having a significant effect on the risk premium.
Volume (Year): 6 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Head Office, Istiklal Cad. 10 Ulus, 06100 Ankara|
Phone: (90 312) 507 5000
Fax: (90 312) 507 5640
Web page: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Baillie, Richard T & Lippens, Robert E & McMahon, Patrick C, 1983. "Testing Rational Expectations and Efficiency in the Foreign Exchange Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 553-63, May.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987.
"Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-53, March.
- Frankel, Jeff & Froot, Ken, 1986. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1972q8wm, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Baillie, Richard T. & P. Osterberg, William, 1997. "Central bank intervention and risk in the forward market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 483-497, November.
- Hakkio, Craig S, 1981.
"Expectations and the Forward Exchange Rate,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(3), pages 663-78, October.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Baillie, R.T., 1988. "Econometric Tests Of Rationality And Market Efficiency," Papers 8805, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Lewis, Karen K., 1988. "Testing the portfolio balance model: A multi-lateral approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 109-127, February.
- Lewis, K. & Evans, M.D.D., 1993.
"Do Long-Term Swings in the Dollar Affect Estimates of the Risk Premia?,"
Weiss Center Working Papers
93-12, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
- Evans, Martin D D & Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Do Long-Term Swings in the Dollar Affect Estimates of the Risk Premia?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 709-42.
- Martin D.D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1993. "Do Long-Term Swings in the Dollar Affect Estimates of the Risk Premia?," Working Papers 93-12, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Humpage, Owen F. & Osterberg, William P., 2000. "Intervention from an information perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 407-421, December.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1985. "Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:6:y:2006:i:1:p:65-79. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()or () or ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.