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The forward bias in the ECU: Peso risks vs. fads and fashions

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  • Sercu, Piet
  • Vinaimont, Tom

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  • Sercu, Piet & Vinaimont, Tom, 2006. "The forward bias in the ECU: Peso risks vs. fads and fashions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2409-2432, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:30:y:2006:i:8:p:2409-2432
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    1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    2. Backus, David K. & Smith, Gregor W., 1993. "Consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non-traded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 297-316, November.
    3. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1986. "The covariation of risk premiums and expected future spot exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1, Supple), pages 5-21, March.
    4. John F. O. Bilson & Richard C. Marston, 1984. "Exchange Rate Theory and Practice," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bils84-1, March.
    5. Huisman, Ronald & Koedijk, Kees & Kool, Clemens & Nissen, Francois, 1998. "Extreme support for uncovered interest parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 211-228, February.
    6. David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 1992. "The Private ECU: A Currency Floating on Gossamer Wings," NBER Working Papers 4017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    8. Bansal, Ravi, 1997. "An Exploration of the Forward Premium Puzzle in Currency Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 369-403.
    9. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-192, Summer.
    11. David K. Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris I. Telmer, 2001. "Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Anomaly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 279-304, February.
    12. Bilson, John F O, 1981. "The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 435-451, July.
    13. Hollifield, Burton & Uppal, Raman, 1997. "An Examination of Uncovered Interest Rate Parity in Segmented International Commodity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2145-2170, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pippenger, John, 2018. "Forward Bias, Uncovered Interest Parity And Related Puzzles," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt1778z416, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    2. C. Emre Alper & Oya Pinar Ardic & Salih Fendoglu, 2009. "The Economics Of The Uncovered Interest Parity Condition For Emerging Markets," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 115-138, February.
    3. Pippenger, John E, 2010. "The Solution to the Forward-Bias and Related Puzzles," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt6br3599r, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    4. Simpson, Marc W. & Grossmann, Axel, 2014. "An examination of the forward prediction error of U.S. dollar exchange rates and how they are related to bid-ask spreads, purchasing power parity disequilibria, and forward premium asymmetry," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 221-238.
    5. Pippenger, John, 2018. "Forward Bias, Uncovered Interest Parity and Related Puzzles," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt2cm6p186, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    6. Neslihan Topbas, 2014. "Tests of Rationality in Turkish Foreign Exchange Market," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 14(2), pages 65-78.
    7. Pippenger, John, 2017. "Forward Bias, The Failure Of Uncovered Interest Parity And Related Puzzles," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt2ff194s2, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    8. Pippenger, John, 2009. "The Forward-Bias Puzzle: A Solution Based on Covered Interest Parity," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt4dd1075r, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    9. Lafuente, Juan A. & Pérez, Rafaela & Ruiz, Jesús, 2016. "Monetary policy regimes and the forward bias for foreign exchange," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 13-28.
    10. Nath, Golaka, 2013. "The Spot Forward Exchange Rate Relation in Indian Foreign Exchange Market - An Analysis," MPRA Paper 51591, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Pippenger, John, 2011. "A Complete Solution To The Forward-Bias Puzzle," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt5gq9z4j0, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    12. Pippenger, John E, 2009. "The Forward-Bias Puzzle: A Solution Based on Covered Interest Parity," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt05d0t24b, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    13. Pippenger, John, 2011. "The solution to the forward-bias puzzle," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 296-304, April.

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